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Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union
v
New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer | Thu 23 Jul, 00:30

Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 08:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Philadelphia Union face New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer on Thu 23 Jul, 00:30. Conversely, Michael Bradley's Red Bulls arrive with momentum after picking up ten points from their last four league fixtures.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Philadelphia Union Win

  • At 1.65, Philadelphia Union Win implies roughly 61%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs.
  • New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Philadelphia Union.
  • New York Red Bulls have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Philadelphia Union Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Philadelphia Union sit 14 in the table, while New York Red Bulls sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Philadelphia Union Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 61% while the model sits nearer 27% (-33.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: New York Red Bulls Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.68.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Philadelphia Union Win sits against roughly 61% implied by the current price. New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 61% implied
Negative
New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return.Visible data support
Positive
New York Red Bulls have the cleaner defensive sample at.Visible data support
Positive
Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Philadelphia Union Win is the preferred angle because philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling and sharp inverted runs. New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Philadelphia Union. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union Win evidence

Philadelphia’s right-hand defensive flank featuring Frankie Westfield and Nathan Harriel will struggle to contain Ruvalcaba’s explosive dribbling.

New York Red Bulls have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 2 for Philadelphia Union.

New York Red Bulls have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Philadelphia Union Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Philadelphia Union sit 14 in the table, while New York Red Bulls sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Philadelphia Union4.8
    Avg corners for
    New York Red Bulls3.75
    Philadelphia Union9
    Avg total corners
    New York Red Bulls8.25
    Philadelphia Union2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    New York Red Bulls2
    Philadelphia Union17.2
    Avg shots
    New York Red Bulls10.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 55% · edge +6.3 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    Major League Soccer hubPhiladelphia Union v New York Red Bulls predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Philadelphia Union1.8
    Avg goals scored
    New York Red Bulls1.8
    Philadelphia Union2.6
    Avg goals conceded
    New York Red Bulls1.4
    Philadelphia Union80%
    BTTS rate
    New York Red Bulls80%
    Philadelphia Union60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    New York Red Bulls60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 61% · edge -33.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Philadelphia Union to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Philadelphia Union

    LDLLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 5L
    25 May 2026A Inter Miami4-6
    17 May 2026H Columbus Crew1-1
    14 May 2026A Orlando City SC3-4
    10 May 2026A New England Revolution1-2
    03 May 2026H Nashville SC0-0

    New York Red Bulls

    WDWWL
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    24 May 2026A Sporting Kansas City2-1
    17 May 2026H New York City FC1-1
    14 May 2026H Columbus Crew3-2
    09 May 2026A Chicago Fire3-1
    03 May 2026H FC Dallas0-2
    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 61% · edge -33.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Philadelphia Union wins
    3Draws
    1New York Red Bulls wins
    17 Aug 2025New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union1-0
    14 Aug 2025Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls3-2
    13 Jul 2025Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls2-0
    01 Sep 2024New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union0-2
    07 Jul 2024Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls0-0
    04 Sep 2023Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls4-1
    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 61% · edge -33.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Philadelphia Union to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Major League Soccer

    Philadelphia Union18
    Played
    New York Red Bulls19
    Philadelphia Union1.4
    Avg goals for
    New York Red Bulls1.6
    Philadelphia Union1.8
    Avg goals against
    New York Red Bulls2.2
    Philadelphia Union3
    Clean sheets
    New York Red Bulls1
    Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 61% · edge -33.6 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.45
    Check odds @ 1.45
    Season data supports Philadelphia Union to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8New York Red Bulls2519748-11
    14Philadelphia Union16184410-8
    Philadelphia Union sit in position 14, while New York Red Bulls sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Philadelphia Union Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
    60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Philadelphia Union sit at 60% and New York Red Bulls sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Major League Soccer hubMajor League Soccer hubPhiladelphia Union v New York Red Bulls predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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