Football Stats Hub

Peterhead crestPeterhead
v
Queen of the South crestQueen of the South

League One | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Peterhead v Queen of the South Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 02:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Peterhead and Queen of the South meet in a League One clash where both sides have shown a tendency for open, high-scoring games this season. Peterhead has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Queen of the South has conceded even more, at 3.4 goals per game. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a likely attacking encounter. With both sides level on points and mid-table, this fixture could see an open tempo as they seek to climb the standings.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Peterhead concedes 2.2 goals per game on average, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Queen of the South concedes 3.4 goals per game, the highest in this matchup.
  • H2H meetings average 2.89 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70.5% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting strong attacking and defensive patterns from both sides. The 8.8% versus the implied of 61.7% suggests this market is a positive value bet. Both teams' high goals conceded and scoring rates, combined with historical head-to-head averages near three goals per game, underpin the expectation of a lively, goal-filled match. Data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance70.5% model chance vs 63.7% implied (+6.8 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge70.5% model chance vs 63.7% implied (+6.8 pts)
Strong positive
Home Goals Against2.2 per game
Positive
Away Goals Against3.4 per game
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals2.89 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Peterhead and Queen of the South vulnerable defensively, which should lead to multiple scoring opportunities. The high goals conceded and strong Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams suggest a lively match with at least three goals scored.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“Given both teams' defensive frailties and attacking intent, this fixture is primed for a high-scoring encounter. The statistical trends strongly support Over 2.5 Goals as a compelling market to consider.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Peterhead concedes 2.2 goals per game on average, showing defensive vulnerability.

Queen of the South concedes 3.4 goals per game, the highest in this matchup.

H2H meetings average 2.89 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.89, indicating a historical trend toward goal-laden encounters.
  • This sample, combined with recent season trends, suggests a fast tempo and attacking mindset from both sides, increasing the probability of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Peterhead0.8
Avg goals scored
Queen of the South1.6
Peterhead2.2
Avg goals conceded
Queen of the South3.4
Peterhead80%
BTTS rate
Queen of the South80%
Peterhead80%
Over 2.5 goals
Queen of the South80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 64% · edge +6.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, highlighting a consistent trend toward high-scoring games. The head-to-head average of 2.89 goals per match further confirms the likelihood of multiple goals. Both sides' defensive vulnerabilities and attacking output suggest goals from both teams are probable, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals outlook.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League One fixtures and predictionsplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 64% · edge +6.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Queen of the South Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Peterhead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The 70.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 63.7% implied by the current price (+6.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Peterhead and 80% for Queen of the South, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Peterhead

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 6L
03 Oct 2026A Hamilton Academical1-2
19 Sep 2026H Airdrie United1-2
12 Sep 2026A East Kilbride1-3
05 Sep 2026H Montrose0-3
29 Aug 2026A Alloa Athletic1-1

Queen of the South

WLLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 6L
03 Oct 2026H Cove Rangers4-3
19 Sep 2026A Hamilton Academical1-4
15 Sep 2026A Ross County0-8
12 Sep 2026H East Fife1-1
05 Sep 2026H Airdrie United2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 63% · edge +15 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
Queen of the South Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Queen of the South to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Peterhead Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Peterhead to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent form data shows Peterhead averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, while Queen of the South averages 1.6 goals scored and 3.4 conceded. Both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating a continuation of high-scoring matches and supporting the selection for this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Peterhead Over 2.5
80%Queen of the South Over 2.5
2.89H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.89, indicating a historical trend toward goal-laden encounters. This sample, combined with recent season trends, suggests a fast tempo and attacking mindset from both sides, increasing the probability of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…