Football Stats Hub

Pescara crestPescara
v
Spezia crestSpezia

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 27 Sep, 19:30

Pescara v Spezia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spezia arrives in strong form at the top of Serie C - Girone B, boasting 16 points and a solid defensive record with just 0.4 goals conceded per game. Pescara, positioned 11th with 8 points, has struggled offensively and defensively, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.8 on average. Spezia's consistency and defensive resilience set the stage for a confident away win, though Pescara's home advantage and occasional attacking threat add some uncertainty to the encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Spezia to Win

  • Spezia leads the league with 16 points and the best defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game.
  • Pescara has scored just 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1.8, showing defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Spezia's recent form includes a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking potency.
  • Head-to-head clashes average 3.13 goals, suggesting open games with scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Spezia to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their league-leading form and strong defensive stats. The at 2.15 imply a 46.5% chance, offering a significant of 23.5%. Spezia's ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining effective attacking output underpins this . The data quality is solid, supporting a standard stake recommendation without caution flags.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Offensive Output2.2 goals scored per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spezia's tactical discipline and defensive solidity make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their superior recent form and league standing provide a strong statistical foundation for this pick, suggesting they can control the game and limit Pescara's attacking opportunities effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Spezia's blend of defensive resilience and efficient attack positions them well to claim all three points, especially given Pescara's inconsistent form and defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Spezia to Win evidence

Spezia leads the league with 16 points and the best defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game.

Pescara has scored just 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1.8, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

Spezia's recent form includes a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking potency.

Head-to-head clashes average 3.13 goals, suggesting open games with scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Spezia to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average of 3.13 goals suggests a trend towards open, attacking games.
  • Spezia's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season supports the likelihood of a lively match with multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pescara1.2
Avg goals scored
Spezia2.2
Pescara1.8
Avg goals conceded
Spezia0.4
Pescara60%
BTTS rate
Spezia40%
Pescara40%
Over 2.5 goals
Spezia60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 64% · edge -0.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The fixture shows a balanced goal profile with Spezia averaging 2.2 goals scored and Pescara conceding 1.8 per game. The head-to-head average of 3.13 goals suggests open play and scoring chances for both sides, though Spezia's lower BTTS rate (40%) indicates they often control matches defensively.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pescara

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 2L
20 Sep 2026A Vado1-0
16 Sep 2026H Gubbio1-1
12 Sep 2026A Atalanta II1-2
06 Sep 2026H Ravenna0-0
29 Aug 2026A Forli3-6

Spezia

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 0L
21 Sep 2026H Vis Pesaro3-1
16 Sep 2026A Perugia3-0
12 Sep 2026H Livorno2-0
06 Sep 2026A Sambenedettese2-1
29 Aug 2026H Campobasso FC1-0
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Spezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Spezia's perfect recent form with 15 points contrasts sharply with Pescara's 5 points, underscoring momentum and differences. Spezia's ability to maintain clean sheets and score regularly underpins their winning edge heading into this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Spezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 61.5% for Spezia to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Spezia have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 5 for Pescara.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Pescara Over 2.5
60%Spezia Over 2.5
3.13H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average of 3.13 goals suggests a trend towards open, attacking games. Spezia's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season supports the likelihood of a lively match with multiple scoring opportunities.

Loading deeper match data…