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Perugia crestPerugia
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Vado crestVado

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 11 Oct, 16:30

Perugia v Vado Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Perugia hosts Vado in a Serie C - Girone B clash where both teams have shown cautious attacking output this season. Perugia, sitting 6th with 13 points, has struggled to score freely, averaging less than a goal per game, while Vado, 14th with 8 points, also exhibits a low scoring rate. Defensive solidity and tactical conservatism appear to be key, with both sides conceding at moderate rates. This fixture promises a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, reflecting the teams' recent low-scoring trends and league positions.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Perugia averages 0.8 goals per game, indicating limited attacking firepower.
  • Vado scores only 0.6 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting matches often end with one or no team scoring.
  • Perugia's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, but Vado's is just 20%, balancing the expectation towards fewer goals.
  • No previous head-to-head data exists, increasing the importance of recent form and season stats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 62% chance, reflecting the low scoring averages and defensive tendencies of both teams. Perugia's modest attack and Vado's even lower goal output combine to suggest a match unlikely to exceed two goals. The price at 1.7 offers a small positive edge, indicating a reasonable value bet without major price sensitivity. The absence of head-to-head history means recent form and season-long defensive stats carry more weight in this prediction.

Model Chance62% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+3.2 pts)
Strong positive
Perugia Goals For0.8 per game
Positive
Vado Goals For0.6 per game
Positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams20%
Strong positive
Price Edge62% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+3.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is the tactical and statistical pick here, as both Perugia and Vado have demonstrated limited attacking output and a tendency for low-scoring matches. The defensive setups and recent form data suggest a cautious game with few clear chances, making a low total goals outcome the most plausible scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture's low scoring averages and defensive focus from both sides make Under 2.5 Goals a logical selection, reflecting the teams' struggle to create and convert chances consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Perugia averages 0.8 goals per game, indicating limited attacking firepower.

Vado scores only 0.6 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting matches often end with one or no team scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • No head-to-head data exists, but recent team trends show Perugia has a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, contrasting with Vado's 20%.
  • This mixed trend suggests the match tempo may be moderate, with a slight lean towards fewer goals given Vado's defensive approach.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Perugia0.8
Avg goals scored
Vado0.6
Perugia1.8
Avg goals conceded
Vado1
Perugia20%
BTTS rate
Vado20%
Perugia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Vado20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 59% · edge +3.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Both teams have low goal-scoring rates and BTTS percentages at 20%, indicating matches often end with one or no team scoring. This trend supports a low-scoring game, with defensive discipline likely to limit goal opportunities in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Perugia

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 3L
03 Oct 2026A Gubbio3-1
27 Sep 2026H Reggiana1-0
20 Sep 2026A Grosseto0-2
16 Sep 2026H Spezia0-3
13 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-3

Vado

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
03 Oct 2026H Forli1-0
26 Sep 2026A Torres0-0
20 Sep 2026H Pescara0-1
16 Sep 2026A Livorno2-3
12 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Vado to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Vado Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Perugia to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Perugia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form shows Perugia with 6 points and Vado with 4, both scoring under one goal per game and conceding moderately. This form profile aligns with a low-scoring match expectation, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVado to WinBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 22% · edge +12.9 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
Vado Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Perugia to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Perugia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 62% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+3.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Perugia and 20% for Vado, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Perugia Over 2.5
20%Vado Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
No head-to-head data exists, but recent team trends show Perugia has a 60% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, contrasting with Vado's 20%. This mixed trend suggests the match tempo may be moderate, with a slight lean towards fewer goals given Vado's defensive approach.

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