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Perugia crestPerugia
v
Reggiana crestReggiana

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 27 Sep, 16:30

Perugia v Reggiana Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Reggiana arrives in strong form, sitting third in Serie C - Girone B with 14 points from seven matches, showcasing a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just 0.8. Perugia, positioned 14th with 7 points, struggles offensively, scoring only 0.8 goals per game while conceding 2.2, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. This contrast in recent performances and league standing sets the stage for Reggiana to assert control in this fixture, leveraging their attacking efficiency and defensive resilience against a less consistent Perugia side.

BT4Y best bet

Reggiana to Win

  • Reggiana holds a strong third place with 14 points, showing consistent form.
  • Reggiana averages 2.2 goals per game, more than double Perugia's 0.8.
  • Perugia concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive issues.
  • Reggiana's defense is tight, allowing only 0.8 goals per game.
  • Perugia's recent form yields just 4 points, contrasting with Reggiana's 13.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Reggiana to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, offensive firepower, and defensive solidity compared to Perugia. The at 2.5 offer positive value given the 40% implied chance, indicating market underestimation. Reggiana's balanced attack and defense create a strong football read for victory, supported by their higher league standing and consistent point accumulation. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormReggiana 13 points vs Perugia 4
Strong positive
Defensive RecordReggiana concedes 0.8 goals vs Perugia 2.2
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Reggiana's superior form and defensive strength provide a tactical edge over Perugia, whose struggles at the back and lower league position make them vulnerable. The data clearly supports backing Reggiana to secure the win in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Reggiana's consistent scoring and solid defense make them the clear favorites here, especially against a Perugia side that has struggled to find the net and keep clean sheets.”

Key Data Signals

Reggiana to Win evidence

Reggiana holds a strong third place with 14 points, showing consistent form.

Reggiana averages 2.2 goals per game, more than double Perugia's 0.8.

Perugia concedes 2.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive issues.

Reggiana's defense is tight, allowing only 0.8 goals per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Reggiana to Win notes

  • Recent trends show a high incidence of Over 2.5 Goals in matches involving both teams, particularly with Reggiana's attacking output and Perugia's defensive concessions.
  • This suggests a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities and a likely goal-rich contest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Perugia0.8
Avg goals scored
Reggiana2.2
Perugia2.2
Avg goals conceded
Reggiana0.8
Perugia40%
BTTS rate
Reggiana80%
Perugia80%
Over 2.5 goals
Reggiana60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Reggiana's matches see a high BTTS rate of 80%, reflecting their attacking prowess and occasional defensive lapses. Perugia's lower BTTS rate of 40% and high goals conceded suggest Reggiana can exploit defensive weaknesses, making goals likely in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickReggiana to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Reggiana Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 55% for Reggiana to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Reggiana have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 4 for Perugia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Perugia

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Grosseto0-2
16 Sep 2026H Spezia0-3
13 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-3
06 Sep 2026H Pineto2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vis Pesaro2-2

Reggiana

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 0L
20 Sep 2026H Latina1-0
16 Sep 2026A Vis Pesaro4-1
12 Sep 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19371-1
06 Sep 2026H Vado3-1
30 Aug 2026A Gubbio2-1
Market aligned with main pickReggiana to WinBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Reggiana Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Reggiana's recent form is impressive, earning 13 points with a strong goal difference, contrasting sharply with Perugia's 4 points and defensive frailties. This momentum favors Reggiana maintaining control and securing victory in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Perugia Over 2.5
60%Reggiana Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show a high incidence of Over 2.5 Goals in matches involving both teams, particularly with Reggiana's attacking output and Perugia's defensive concessions. This suggests a lively game with multiple scoring opportunities and a likely goal-rich contest.

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