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Penarol crestPenarol
v
Corinthians crestCorinthians

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Fri 22 May, 01:30

Penarol v Corinthians Stats

Data last updated: Tue 07 Jul 2026, 23:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Penarol face Corinthians in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Fri 22 May, 01:30. There are group-stage matches that feel routine, and then there are nights like this one in Montevideo. They have scored only three goals and conceded six, while recent home form has been shaky enough to turn the atmosphere edgy rather than intimidating.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 1/2, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 67%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Peñarol must push hard at home to protect their campaign, but Corinthians have conceded just one goal in four games, pointing directly to a.
  • Corinthians are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.75 goals per match, with Penarol at 0.75.
  • BTTS rates of 75% for Penarol and 25% for Corinthians show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 67% implied by the current price. Corinthians are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Penarol at 0.75. Peñarol must push hard at home to protect their campaign, but Corinthians have conceded just one goal in four games, pointing directly to a.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 67% implied
Neutral
Corinthians are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.75.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 75% for Penarol and 25% for Corinthians.Visible data support
Positive
Peñarol must push hard at home to protect their.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because peñarol must push hard at home to protect their campaign, but Corinthians have conceded just one goal in four games, pointing directly to a low-scoring stalemate in Montevideo. Corinthians are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Penarol at 0.75. The other can afford patience, but not complacency.

Main risk

The other can afford patience, but not complacency.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Peñarol must push hard at home to protect their campaign, but Corinthians have conceded just one goal in.

Corinthians are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.75 goals per match, with Penarol at 0.75.

BTTS rates of 75% for Penarol and 25% for Corinthians show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Penarol0.75
Avg goals scored
Corinthians1.75
Penarol1.5
Avg goals conceded
Corinthians0.25
Penarol75%
BTTS rate
Corinthians25%
Penarol25%
Over 2.5 goals
Corinthians0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 71% · edge -5.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 25% for Penarol and 0% for Corinthians, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 22% · edge +44.5 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Penarol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Penarol v Corinthianscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Penarol3
Avg corners for
Corinthians5
Penarol6.25
Avg total corners
Corinthians9.5
Penarol3.5
Avg yellow cards
Corinthians0.5
Penarol10.5
Avg shots
Corinthians11.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 46% · edge +18.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Penarol

DLLD
Last 50W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 2L
07 May 2026A Platense1-1
01 May 2026A Corinthians0-2
17 Apr 2026H Platense1-2
10 Apr 2026A Santa Fe1-1

Corinthians

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
07 May 2026A Santa Fe1-1
01 May 2026H Penarol2-0
16 Apr 2026H Santa Fe2-0
10 Apr 2026A Platense2-0
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.54
Check odds @ 1.54
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Penarol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Penarol to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Penarol wins
0Draws
1Corinthians wins
01 May 2026Corinthians v Penarol2-0
14 May 2021Penarol v Corinthians4-0
29 Apr 2021Corinthians v Penarol0-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 22% · edge +44.5 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Corinthians to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Penarol to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Penarol6
Played
Corinthians6
Penarol0.7
Avg goals for
Corinthians1.3
Penarol1.3
Avg goals against
Corinthians0.7
Penarol0
Clean sheets
Corinthians3
Best odds for this sectionCorinthians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 30% · edge +39.7 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Corinthians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Penarol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Penarol to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Season data supports Corinthians to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Corinthians1163214
4Penarol36033-4
CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Penarol Over 2.5
0%Corinthians Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Penarol sit at 25% and Corinthians sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Penarol v Corinthians prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

full betting preview for Penarol v Corinthianscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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