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PEC Zwolle crestPEC Zwolle
v
Cambuur crestCambuur

Eredivisie | Sun 11 Oct, 13:30

PEC Zwolle v Cambuur Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PEC Zwolle and Cambuur meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games recently, with PEC Zwolle conceding three goals in their last outings and Cambuur averaging 1.8 goals scored per match. The fixture promises open play and goalmouth action, as both sides seek to improve their league standing and capitalize on offensive opportunities. Tactical openness and defensive lapses suggest a lively encounter with multiple goal chances for both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.
  • The average goals per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings is 3.8, indicating high-scoring encounters.
  • PEC Zwolle averages 11.8 shots per game with 3.8 on target, while Cambuur averages 10.4 shots and 4 on target, showing offensive activity.
  • Key players like R. El Arguioui and I. Hamache for Cambuur and K. Kostons for PEC Zwolle contribute significantly to goal threat and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 58% chance against an implied market chance of 45.5%, reflecting a 12.5% . Both teams demonstrate high attacking output and defensive frailties, with PEC Zwolle conceding an average of 3 goals recently and Cambuur maintaining an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. The high average goals in their head-to-head history (3.8) further supports the likelihood of a goal-rich match. The attacking roles of players like R. El Arguioui and I. Hamache add to the scoring potential. No data limitations or price warnings affect this pick.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Team Attack/DefenseHigh goals scored and conceded
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.8 goals per match
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have shown defensive vulnerabilities and strong offensive intent. The high volume of shots and historical goal-rich meetings suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with attacking ambition but defensive fragility, creating fertile ground for a high-scoring encounter. The combination of shot volume, key goal threats, and past high-scoring matches makes Over 3.5 Goals a logical and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

The average goals per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings is 3.8, indicating high-scoring encounters.

PEC Zwolle averages 11.8 shots per game with 3.8 on target, while Cambuur averages 10.4 shots and 4 on target, showing offensive activity.

Key players like R. El Arguioui and I. Hamache for Cambuur and K. Kostons for PEC Zwolle contribute significantly to goal threat and shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring encounters between these teams.
  • This recent trend suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps that favor multiple goals, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 and supporting the primary pick of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

PEC Zwolle1
Avg goals scored
Cambuur1.8
PEC Zwolle3
Avg goals conceded
Cambuur2.4
PEC Zwolle40%
BTTS rate
Cambuur80%
PEC Zwolle80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cambuur80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, highlighting their propensity for open, goal-filled games. Cambuur's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with PEC Zwolle's 40%, suggesting Cambuur consistently finds the net while PEC Zwolle's defense is more vulnerable. The 3.8 average goals in their last 10 meetings further underline the expectation for multiple goals and potentially both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Cambuur to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for PEC Zwolle and 80% for Cambuur, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

PEC Zwolle

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
18 Sep 2026A Groningen0-3
13 Sep 2026H Feyenoord0-7
04 Sep 2026A Sparta Rotterdam2-2
29 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-3
22 Aug 2026A Heerenveen2-0

Cambuur

DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 4L
19 Sep 2026A ADO Den Haag1-1
12 Sep 2026H NEC Nijmegen3-0
06 Sep 2026A Telstar2-2
30 Aug 2026H Twente1-4
23 Aug 2026H Feyenoord2-5
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Cambuur Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Cambuur to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
PEC Zwolle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
PEC Zwolle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form data shows PEC Zwolle scoring only 1 goal in their last matches while conceding 3, indicating defensive frailty. Cambuur averages 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, maintaining an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. Both teams' recent matches have tended towards higher scoring, reinforcing the expectation of a goal-laden contest in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%PEC Zwolle Over 2.5
80%Cambuur Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring encounters between these teams. This recent trend suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps that favor multiple goals, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 and supporting the primary pick of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.

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