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Paraguay crestParaguay
v
Australia crestAustralia

World Cup | Fri 26 Jun, 03:00

Paraguay v Australia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 12 Aug 2026, 08:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Paraguay face Australia in World Cup on Fri 26 Jun, 03:00. Group D’s most awkward game could be its most fascinating. Paraguay have kept four clean sheets in their last six matches and conceded only three goals in that run, a defensive record that explains why this could become a tight, awkward contest.

BT4Y best bet

Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes

  • At 4.5, Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 37%.
  • Australia currently sit second with a goal difference of 0, having scored two and conceded two.
  • Australia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes angle more than a.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 37% for Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Australia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes angle more than a. Australia currently sit second with a goal difference of 0, having scored two and conceded two.

Model chance vs price37% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Australia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Australia currently sit second with a goal difference of.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Australia Win is the preferred angle because australia currently sit second with a goal difference of 0, having scored two and conceded two. Australia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Australia Win angle more than a raw possession edge. However one judges the moment, Paraguay now have to face Australia without one of the players specifically named in their attacking picture.

Main risk

However one judges the moment, Paraguay now have to face Australia without one of the players specifically named in their attacking picture.

Key Data Signals

Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes evidence

Australia currently sit second with a goal difference of 0, having scored two and conceded two.

Australia have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Australia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Calls, and the shared usefulness of a draw all press down on the same 90 minutes notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Paraguay0.5
    Avg corners for
    Australia4.5
    Paraguay8
    Avg total corners
    Australia12
    Paraguay3
    Avg yellow cards
    Australia2
    Paraguay8
    Avg shots
    Australia7
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 44%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Paraguay1
    Avg goals scored
    Australia1
    Paraguay2
    Avg goals conceded
    Australia1
    Paraguay50%
    BTTS rate
    Australia0%
    Paraguay50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Australia0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
    5
    Check odds @ 5
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    6
    Check odds @ 6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAustralia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
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    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Australia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Australia to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Paraguay

    WL
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    20 Jun 2026A Türkiye1-0
    13 Jun 2026A USA1-4

    Australia

    LW
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    19 Jun 2026A USA0-2
    14 Jun 2026H Türkiye2-0
    Market aligned with main pickAustralia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
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    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Australia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Paraguay wins
    0Draws
    0Australia wins
    Market aligned with main pickAustralia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 35%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Australia to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Paraguay5
    Played
    Australia4
    Paraguay0.8
    Avg goals for
    Australia0.8
    Paraguay1.2
    Avg goals against
    Australia1
    Paraguay2
    Clean sheets
    Australia2
    Market aligned with main pickAustralia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Australia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Australia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Australia431110
    3Paraguay43111-2
    7Paraguay43111-2
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Paraguay Over 2.5
    0%Australia Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Paraguay sit at 50% and Australia sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.