Football Stats Hub

Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Fluminense crestFluminense

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 22 Oct, 01:30

Palmeiras v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 10:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras travel to face Fluminense in the first leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-final at the Maracana, bringing strong attacking momentum from recent domestic wins including a 4-1 triumph over Corinthians. Fluminense, while resilient at home and led by experienced defenders like Thiago Silva, have rotated key players recently and face injury concerns that may limit their attacking threat. Palmeiras' sustained pressure and high shot volume contrast with Fluminense's more measured approach, setting up a tactical battle where Palmeiras aim to secure a narrow away victory to gain the upper hand in this two-legged tie.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras to Win

  • Palmeiras average 26.3 attempts and 9.7 shots on target per match in recent fixtures.
  • Fluminense have avoided defeat on the +0.25 Asian handicap in 13 consecutive home matches.
  • Palmeiras scored 4-1 against Corinthians, showing strong attacking form.
  • Fluminense's key players German Cano and John Kennedy are unavailable due to injury.
  • Palmeiras' recent domestic wins underpin in their ability to win away.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Palmeiras' of 67% significantly exceeds the implied market chance of 37%, indicating strong value. Their recent offensive output, averaging over 26 shots per game with nearly 10 on target, supports their ability to break down Fluminense's defense. Fluminense's injury issues and squad rotation reduce their attacking threat, while Palmeiras' resilience in continental ties adds . The model notes no data quality concerns and sees this as a well-supported pick based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Recent attacking volume26.3 attempts and 9.7 shots on target per match
Strong positive
Fluminense home resilience13 matches unbeaten on +0.25 Asian handicap
Neutral
Injury impact on Fluminense attackGerman Cano and John Kennedy unavailable
Positive
Model vs market chance gap65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Continental experiencePalmeiras showed resilience in quarter-final comeback
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' superior attacking momentum and shot creation make them the likely winners in this first leg, despite Fluminense's home resilience and defensive experience. The visitors' ability to sustain pressure and convert chances should be decisive in securing a narrow victory to take advantage into the second leg.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Palmeiras attacking momentum vs Fluminense home defense

“Palmeiras' high shot volume and recent domestic form position them well to overcome Fluminense's home solidity, making an away win a compelling tactical and statistical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras to Win evidence

Palmeiras average 26.3 attempts and 9.7 shots on target per match in recent fixtures.

Fluminense have avoided defeat on the +0.25 Asian handicap in 13 consecutive home matches.

Palmeiras scored 4-1 against Corinthians, showing strong attacking form.

Fluminense's key players German Cano and John Kennedy are unavailable due to injury.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating moderately open games.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting potential for goals but also the possibility of a tight scoreline given the tactical stakes of a semi-final first leg.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palmeiras1.4
Avg goals scored
Fluminense1
Palmeiras1
Avg goals conceded
Fluminense1
Palmeiras60%
BTTS rate
Fluminense60%
Palmeiras40%
Over 2.5 goals
Fluminense40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown the ability to score recently, but Fluminense's injury concerns and Palmeiras' defensive resilience suggest a tight contest. The likelihood of both teams scoring is moderate, supported by Palmeiras' high shot volume and Fluminense's home attacking spells, but a narrow Palmeiras win with limited goals is plausible.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 65% for Palmeiras to Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fluminense. Fluminense Target a Strong Home Performance
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palmeiras

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
15 Oct 2026A Fluminense2-1
16 Sep 2026A LDU de Quito2-3
09 Sep 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0
12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1

Fluminense

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
15 Oct 2026H Palmeiras1-2
15 Sep 2026A Platense1-2
08 Sep 2026H Platense2-0
18 Aug 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-1
11 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Palmeiras have accumulated 10 points in recent matches with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting solid form and offensive efficiency. Fluminense's 5 points and 1 goal per game average indicate a dip in momentum, compounded by recent squad rotations and injuries, favoring Palmeiras' going into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
40%Fluminense Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating moderately open games. Both teams have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting potential for goals but also the possibility of a tight scoreline given the tactical stakes of a semi-final first leg.

Loading deeper match data…