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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras
v
Fluminense crestFluminense

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 22 Oct, 01:30

Palmeiras v Fluminense Stats

Data last updated: Wed 11 Nov 2026, 19:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras face Fluminense in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 22 Oct, 01:30. Fluminense travel to Sao Paulo under considerable pressure following three consecutive defeats, including Sunday's 2-1 home loss against Santos. Flaco Lopez's scoring threat and Fluminense's recent form slump support this low-scoring outcome, though an away goal would negate this exact score prediction.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0

  • At 4/6, Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.
  • Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fluminense.
  • Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fluminense. Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Positive
Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Palmeiras Win is the preferred angle because palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick. Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fluminense. However, the narrow aggregate margin ensures this all-Brazilian semi-final remains finely balanced.

Main risk

However, the narrow aggregate margin ensures this all-Brazilian semi-final remains finely balanced.

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 evidence

Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.

Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 5 for Fluminense.

Palmeiras have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Palmeiras Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Palmeiras1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Fluminense1
    Palmeiras1
    Avg goals conceded
    Fluminense1
    Palmeiras60%
    BTTS rate
    Fluminense60%
    Palmeiras40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fluminense40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    related match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 61% · edge +6.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Palmeiras to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Palmeiras

    WLWWD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    15 Oct 2026A Fluminense2-1
    16 Sep 2026A LDU de Quito2-3
    09 Sep 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
    19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0
    12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1

    Fluminense

    LLWDD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    15 Oct 2026H Palmeiras1-2
    15 Sep 2026A Platense1-2
    08 Sep 2026H Platense2-0
    18 Aug 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-1
    11 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
    Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 61% · edge +6.4 pts
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    40%Fluminense Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Palmeiras sit at 40% and Fluminense sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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