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Palermo crestPalermo
v
Sampdoria crestSampdoria

Serie B | Mon 07 Sep, 19:30

Palermo v Sampdoria Stats

Data last updated: Sun 06 Sep 2026, 08:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palermo enters this Serie B clash with solid early-season form, having secured 6 points from their opening matches and sitting comfortably in 5th place. Sampdoria, struggling with just 1 point and positioned 17th, face an uphill battle. Palermo's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, while Sampdoria have shown defensive vulnerabilities and lack offensive sharpness. The home side's and recent momentum create a favorable environment for a victory, though Sampdoria's resilience could still pose challenges in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Palermo to Win

  • Palermo has collected 6 points early in the season, compared to Sampdoria's single point.
  • Palermo averages 16.5 shots per game with 6 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Sampdoria concedes 1.5 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4, suggesting moderate scoring opportunities.
  • Palermo ranks 5th, reflecting stronger league form and consistency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Palermo to win, reflecting their superior recent form and home advantage. Palermo's offensive metrics, including a high average of shots and shots on target, combine with Sampdoria's defensive struggles to support this outcome. The pricing at 1.8 offers positive value with an 18.4% edge, making Palermo to Win a compelling selection. No data limitations affect , and the model's strong rating reinforces the pick's robustness.

Recent FormPalermo 6 points vs Sampdoria 1 point
Strong positive
Offensive PressurePalermo averages 16.5 shots and 6 SOT per game
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessSampdoria concedes 1.5 goals per game
Positive
Price Value18.4% value edge at 1.8 odds
Strong positive
Confidence Level74% model confidence
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palermo's early season form and offensive activity suggest they are well-positioned to secure a home victory. Their ability to generate numerous shots and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Sampdoria's struggles, making Palermo the logical choice for a confident win in this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Palermo's combination of attacking intent and defensive resilience creates a strong foundation for victory, especially against a Sampdoria side that has yet to find consistent form this season.”

Key Data Signals

Palermo to Win evidence

Palermo has collected 6 points early in the season, compared to Sampdoria's single point.

Palermo averages 16.5 shots per game with 6 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

Sampdoria concedes 1.5 goals per game, showing defensive frailty.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.4, suggesting moderate scoring opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Palermo to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.4, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Both sides have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for open play and goal opportunities in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Palermo5
Avg corners for
Sampdoria7
Palermo12.5
Avg total corners
Sampdoria10.5
Palermo3
Avg yellow cards
Sampdoria1.5
Palermo16.5
Avg shots
Sampdoria19
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Palermo averages 5 corners and 3 yellow cards per game, showing moderate attacking pressure and physicality. Sampdoria's higher corner average at 7 but fewer cards (1.5) suggests they rely on wide play and disciplined defense. Shot volumes favor Palermo's offensive presence, reinforcing territorial control and chances created.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palermo2
Avg goals scored
Sampdoria1
Palermo1
Avg goals conceded
Sampdoria1.5
Palermo50%
BTTS rate
Sampdoria100%
Palermo50%
Over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 50% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but Sampdoria's 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Palermo's 50%, indicating Sampdoria often concedes and scores. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals with some defensive openness, supporting a balanced goals and BTTS outlook.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
The for Palermo to win at 1.8 reflect a market aligned with the model's 74% chance, indicating positive value. The 18.4% suggests bettors are offered a favorable price relative to the statistical likelihood, making this a price-sensitive but attractive selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palermo

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Arezzo3-2
23 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-0

Sampdoria

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-2
23 Aug 2026A Cesena1-1
Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Palermo's accumulation of 6 points with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded reflects a balanced and effective approach. Sampdoria's solitary point and lower goal output underline their struggles. Palermo's form advantage is a key factor in their favored status for the win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Palermo wins
6Draws
1Sampdoria wins
10 Feb 2026Sampdoria v Palermo3-3
12 Dec 2025Palermo v Sampdoria1-0
08 Mar 2025Sampdoria v Palermo1-1
24 Nov 2024Palermo v Sampdoria1-1
17 May 2024Palermo v Sampdoria2-0
06 Apr 2024Palermo v Sampdoria2-2
Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
The ten previous meetings between Palermo and Sampdoria have averaged 2.4 goals per game, reflecting moderately competitive encounters. While historical results provide context, current form and squad dynamics carry more weight for this match's outcome.
Season team stats

Serie B

Palermo2
Played
Sampdoria2
Palermo2
Avg goals for
Sampdoria1
Palermo1
Avg goals against
Sampdoria1.5
Palermo1
Clean sheets
Sampdoria0
Market aligned with main pickPalermo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Palermo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Palermo's season stats reveal a solid attack averaging 2 goals per match and a defense conceding just 1 goal per game, supporting their winning chances. Sampdoria's higher goals conceded (1.5) and lower scoring rate indicate defensive vulnerabilities and offensive inefficiency, reinforcing Palermo's edge.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Palermo622002
19Sampdoria12011-1
Palermo's 5th place standing with 6 points contrasts sharply with Sampdoria's 17th place and 1 point, highlighting the pressure on Sampdoria to improve. This league context underscores Palermo's momentum and relative stability in the competition.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Palermo Over 2.5
50%Sampdoria Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.4, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Both sides have a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for open play and goal opportunities in this fixture.

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