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Oxford United crestOxford United
v
Burton Albion crestBurton Albion

League One | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Oxford United v Burton Albion Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Oxford United and Burton Albion meet in a League One clash where both sides have shown attacking intent early in the season. Oxford United, ranked 11th, have scored consistently but also conceded at a moderate rate, while Burton Albion, sitting 6th, maintain a balanced approach with solid goal returns and defensive resilience. Both teams have a history of open games, and recent form data highlights a strong tendency for matches with multiple goals. Tactical setups suggest an engaging contest with chances at both ends, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Oxford United have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.
  • Burton Albion’s games have featured Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time this season.
  • The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.7 goals per game.
  • Oxford United average 11.5 shots and 4.25 shots on target per match.
  • Burton Albion contribute 9.6 shots and 3.4 shots on target per match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 54.1%, indicating strong value. Both teams exhibit attacking tendencies with Oxford United’s perfect recent Over 2.5 record and Burton Albion’s 80% rate supporting a goal-rich game. The average of 3.7 goals in their last 10 meetings further reinforces the likelihood of multiple goals. Player-level data shows key attackers like G. O'Donkor and Caylan Vickers consistently generating shots and goal threats, enhancing scoring potential. No data limitations reduce in this selection.

Model chance78%
Strong positive
Oxford United Over 2.5 rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Burton Albion Over 2.5 rate80% recent matches
Positive
H2H average goals3.7 goals per game
Positive
Key attackers’ shot volumeHigh shots and shots on target
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and competitive League One fixture with both Oxford United and Burton Albion showing attacking intent and goal-scoring ability. The strong recent Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams, combined with their history of high-scoring encounters, suggest a lively match with multiple goals. Tactical openness and key offensive players create a solid foundation for this bet.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with clear offensive ambitions and a history of goal-rich games, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection based on both form and player attacking metrics.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Oxford United have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches.

Burton Albion’s games have featured Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time this season.

The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.7 goals per game.

Oxford United average 11.5 shots and 4.25 shots on target per match.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.7 goals, a notably high figure.
  • This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 rates of 100% for Oxford United and 80% for Burton Albion, indicates a consistent pattern of open, high-tempo games with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals angle.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Oxford United4.75
Avg corners for
Burton Albion2.4
Oxford United12.25
Avg total corners
Burton Albion7.6
Oxford United2.25
Avg yellow cards
Burton Albion1.8
Oxford United11.5
Avg shots
Burton Albion9.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 60% · edge -2.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Oxford United average 4.75 corners and 11.5 shots per game, while Burton Albion average 2.4 corners and 9.6 shots, indicating sustained attacking pressure from both sides. Discipline is moderate with Oxford United averaging 2.25 yellow cards and Burton Albion 1.8, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to open play and goal opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Oxford United2.25
Avg goals scored
Burton Albion2
Oxford United1.5
Avg goals conceded
Burton Albion1.4
Oxford United75%
BTTS rate
Burton Albion100%
Oxford United100%
Over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams demonstrate strong goal involvement with Oxford United scoring 2.25 goals per game and Burton Albion 2.0, alongside high BTTS rates (75% and 100% respectively). Their offensive output combined with moderate defensive concessions suggests matches frequently feature multiple goals and both teams scoring, supporting Over 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Oxford United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Oxford United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a of 78%, significantly higher than the implied 54.1% chance from of 1.85. This positive signals a strong betting opportunity without price warnings, reflecting in a high-scoring match given current team form and historical data.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Oxford United

WLWD
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
05 Sep 2026A Leicester4-0
01 Sep 2026A Huddersfield1-3
22 Aug 2026A Stevenage2-1
15 Aug 2026H Milton Keynes Dons2-2

Burton Albion

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Cambridge United2-2
02 Sep 2026H AFC Wimbledon4-1
29 Aug 2026A Notts County1-2
22 Aug 2026A Leicester2-1
15 Aug 2026H Stevenage1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Oxford United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Oxford United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form strongly supports Over 2.5 Goals with Oxford United’s matches all exceeding 2.5 goals and Burton Albion’s games doing so 80% of the time. Both teams have scored and conceded regularly, indicating open matches with goal-scoring opportunities on both sides, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Oxford United wins
2Draws
1Burton Albion wins
06 Apr 2024Burton Albion v Oxford United0-4
16 Dec 2023Oxford United v Burton Albion3-0
28 Jan 2023Burton Albion v Oxford United2-0
03 Sep 2022Oxford United v Burton Albion2-1
05 Mar 2022Oxford United v Burton Albion4-1
23 Oct 2021Burton Albion v Oxford United1-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Oxford United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The historical sample of 10 matches shows an average of 3.7 goals per game, strongly supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring fixture. This consistent trend of goal-rich encounters between Oxford United and Burton Albion provides a reliable backdrop for the Over 2.5 Goals pick, emphasizing attacking openness and defensive concessions in their meetings.
Season team stats

League One

Oxford United4
Played
Burton Albion5
Oxford United2.3
Avg goals for
Burton Albion2
Oxford United1.5
Avg goals against
Burton Albion1.4
Oxford United1
Clean sheets
Burton Albion0
Best odds for this sectionBurton Albion Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Oxford United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Oxford United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Season-long statistics show Oxford United scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding 1.5, while Burton Albion score 2.0 and concede 1.4. These figures reflect attacking-minded teams with defensive vulnerabilities, creating a fertile environment for multiple goals and supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Burton Albion852213
11Oxford United742113
Oxford United and Burton Albion occupy mid-table positions (11th and 6th respectively) with similar points tallies, suggesting competitive balance. While league position alone is not decisive, both teams’ need for points and positive momentum likely encourages attacking play, aligning with expectations of a goal-rich match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Oxford United Over 2.5
80%Burton Albion Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.7 goals, a notably high figure. This trend, combined with recent Over 2.5 rates of 100% for Oxford United and 80% for Burton Albion, indicates a consistent pattern of open, high-tempo games with multiple scoring opportunities, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals angle.

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