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Osasuna crestOsasuna
v
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

La Liga | Sat 19 Sep, 13:00

Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Osasuna face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Sat 19 Sep, 13:00. Osasuna come in with 6 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Rayo Vallecano have 7 points and 1.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 2, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 65%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 80% for Rayo Vallecano, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Osasuna at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Osasuna and 100% for Rayo Vallecano show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 65% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 80% for Rayo Vallecano, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price65% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 80%.Visible data support
Positive
Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 80% for Rayo Vallecano, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Osasuna and 80% for Rayo Vallecano, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Rayo Vallecano are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.8 goals per match, with Osasuna at 1.

BTTS rates of 40% for Osasuna and 100% for Rayo Vallecano show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Osasuna1.6
Avg corners for
Rayo Vallecano5.5
Osasuna6.4
Avg total corners
Rayo Vallecano13.5
Osasuna2.4
Avg yellow cards
Rayo Vallecano2
Osasuna8.8
Avg shots
Rayo Vallecano13.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 52% · edge -4.8 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

La Liga hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Osasuna1
Avg goals scored
Rayo Vallecano1.8
Osasuna2.4
Avg goals conceded
Rayo Vallecano2.6
Osasuna40%
BTTS rate
Rayo Vallecano100%
Osasuna60%
Over 2.5 goals
Rayo Vallecano80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +14.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +14.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Osasuna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Osasuna to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Osasuna

LLLWW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
16 Sep 2026A Atletico Madrid0-4
12 Sep 2026H Espanyol0-2
06 Sep 2026A Alaves2-5
31 Aug 2026H Getafe1-0
27 Aug 2026A Celta Vigo2-1

Rayo Vallecano

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
15 Sep 2026H Espanyol2-1
12 Sep 2026A Real Madrid1-4
05 Sep 2026H Racing Santander3-2
31 Aug 2026A Barcelona2-5
20 Aug 2026H Alaves1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 77% vs implied 64% · edge +13.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Rayo Vallecano Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Osasuna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Osasuna to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Osasuna wins
1Draws
3Rayo Vallecano wins
24 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna1-3
14 Sep 2025Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano2-0
19 Jan 2025Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano1-1
16 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna3-1
20 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano v Osasuna2-1
15 Dec 2023Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +14.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Osasuna to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

La Liga

Osasuna6
Played
Rayo Vallecano6
Osasuna0.8
Avg goals for
Rayo Vallecano1.7
Osasuna2
Avg goals against
Rayo Vallecano2.5
Osasuna2
Clean sheets
Rayo Vallecano0
Best odds for this sectionRayo Vallecano Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 49% · edge +10.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Rayo Vallecano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Osasuna Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Osasuna to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Season data supports Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Rayo Vallecano76213-5
13Osasuna76213-7
Osasuna sit in position 13, while Rayo Vallecano sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Osasuna Over 2.5
80%Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Osasuna sit at 60% and Rayo Vallecano sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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