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Orlando City SC crestOrlando City SC
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Chicago Fire crestChicago Fire

Major League Soccer | Thu 20 Aug, 00:30

Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 04:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Orlando City SC and Chicago Fire meet in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent is expected to shape the game. Chicago Fire sits higher in the standings with a strong recent run, while Orlando City SC seeks to capitalize on home opportunities. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities but also defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting an open match with potential for multiple goals. The tactical setup and recent scoring patterns indicate a fixture likely to produce an entertaining, high-scoring encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Chicago Fire have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
  • Orlando City SC averages 16.2 shots per game with 6 on target, showing active attacking play.
  • The average goals per game in their last 10 meetings is 2.6, supporting a goal-rich fixture.
  • Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% (Orlando) and 100% (Chicago), suggesting both sides find the net regularly.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 53.4% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 52.4%, indicating a small positive . Both teams demonstrate attacking strengths and defensive lapses, with Chicago Fire's perfect recent Over 2.5 Goals rate and Orlando City's high shot volume supporting a high-scoring outcome. The average goals in their head-to-head matches and BTTS rates further reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a solid statistical case for Over 3.5 Goals.

Model Chance53.4%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Chicago Fire)100%
Strong positive
Orlando City SC Average Shots16.2 per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.6 goals per match
Positive
BTTS Rates60% Orlando, 100% Chicago
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking encounter as Chicago Fire's strong offensive form meets Orlando City SC's active shot creation. The data supports a high-scoring game with multiple goal chances for both sides, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling pick based on recent form and attacking profiles.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“Chicago Fire's consistent goal-scoring and Orlando City's high shot volume set the stage for a lively, goal-filled match. Both teams' offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities suggest Over 3.5 Goals is a well-founded expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Chicago Fire have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

Orlando City SC averages 16.2 shots per game with 6 on target, showing active attacking play.

The average goals per game in their last 10 meetings is 2.6, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% (Orlando) and 100% (Chicago), suggesting both sides find the net regularly.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with recent matches trending towards higher scoring.
  • Chicago Fire's perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent games and Orlando City SC's 60% rate suggest a tempo and attacking openness conducive to surpassing 2.5 goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals market as a natural extension of this trend.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Orlando City SC5.4
Avg corners for
Chicago Fire3.75
Orlando City SC9.8
Avg total corners
Chicago Fire9.25
Orlando City SC1.8
Avg yellow cards
Chicago Fire2.5
Orlando City SC16.2
Avg shots
Chicago Fire13
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 55% · edge +4.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Orlando City SC averages 5.4 corners and 16.2 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure. Chicago Fire's 3.4 corners and 12.2 shots reflect a more measured approach but still contribute to offensive threat. Discipline is moderate, with Chicago Fire averaging 2.6 yellow cards, suggesting some physicality but not excessive fouling.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Orlando City SC2
Avg goals scored
Chicago Fire1.8
Orlando City SC2
Avg goals conceded
Chicago Fire1.8
Orlando City SC60%
BTTS rate
Chicago Fire100%
Orlando City SC60%
Over 2.5 goals
Chicago Fire100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 52% · edge +1 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede regularly, with Chicago Fire boasting a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 100% BTTS rate recently. Orlando City SC's 60% rates also support an open game with goals at both ends, making a high-scoring match probable.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Orlando City SC to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Orlando City SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced around 1.91 with a slight model edge, indicating a small positive value. The reflect the market's recognition of both teams' attacking capabilities, though the margin is narrow, suggesting careful stake management is advisable.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Orlando City SC

DLWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
16 Aug 2026H FC Cincinnati1-1
02 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls2-3
26 Jul 2026H Nashville SC1-0
23 Jul 2026A San Jose Earthquakes4-0
24 May 2026A FC Cincinnati2-6

Chicago Fire

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
16 Aug 2026H Portland Timbers2-1
02 Aug 2026H Charlotte2-1
26 Jul 2026A New York City FC1-3
23 Jul 2026A Inter Miami2-3
24 May 2026H Toronto FC2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 71% · edge +5.1 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Orlando City SC to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Orlando City SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Chicago Fire's recent form includes 9 points with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, signaling consistent high-scoring matches. Orlando City SC has collected 7 points and also shows a 60% Over 2.5 rate, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Orlando City SC wins
3Draws
2Chicago Fire wins
23 Oct 2025Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC3-1
01 Jun 2025Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire1-3
04 May 2025Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC0-0
23 Jun 2024Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire4-2
30 May 2024Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC1-1
21 Aug 2023Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC1-3
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Orlando City SC to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating moderately high-scoring encounters historically. While not overwhelmingly high, this average combined with recent attacking form suggests the fixture is prone to multiple goals, though defensive improvements could moderate scoring.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC20
Played
Chicago Fire19
Orlando City SC1.6
Avg goals for
Chicago Fire1.9
Orlando City SC2.5
Avg goals against
Chicago Fire1.3
Orlando City SC2
Clean sheets
Chicago Fire6
Best odds for this sectionChicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 51% · edge +8 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Load more odds for this section
Chicago Fire to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Orlando City SC to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Orlando City SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Season-long data shows Orlando City SC averaging 2 goals for and against per game with a 60% Over 2.5 rate, while Chicago Fire averages 1.8 goals scored and conceded with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 rate. These figures underline both teams' offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities, favoring a high-scoring outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Chicago Fire3519112611
10Orlando City SC21206311-18
Chicago Fire ranks 3rd with 32 points, reflecting strong league form and offensive efficiency. Orlando City SC sits 10th with 21 points, indicating a mid-table position but with enough attacking threat to challenge higher-ranked opponents. The standings suggest Chicago Fire's attacking momentum meets Orlando's home ambition in a potentially open contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Orlando City SC Over 2.5
100%Chicago Fire Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with recent matches trending towards higher scoring. Chicago Fire's perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent games and Orlando City SC's 60% rate suggest a tempo and attacking openness conducive to surpassing 2.5 goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals market as a natural extension of this trend.

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