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OFI crestOFI
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Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

UEFA Europa League | Thu 22 Oct, 17:45

OFI v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 13:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bayer Leverkusen arrive at the Pankritio Stadium aiming to extend their flawless Europa League run with a third consecutive win, riding a five-match winning streak across competitions. OFI, unbeaten in six home matches this season and boasting a notable 2-0 European win over Hoffenheim, seek to halt their recent three-match losing streak and exploit Leverkusen's defensive vulnerabilities. The hosts rely heavily on attacking contributions from Thiago Nuss and Kenan Kodro, while Leverkusen's high-volume offense, led by Patrik Schick and Ibrahim Maza, promises sustained pressure. Tactical battles will focus on Leverkusen's possession control and transition threat against OFI's home resilience and wide play.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 42%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Leverkusen on a five-match winning streak with strong attacking output averaging 2.4 goals per game.
  • OFI unbeaten in six home matches, scoring consistently including a 2-0 Europa League win over Hoffenheim.
  • OFI conceded nine goals in their last three matches, highlighting defensive fragility against high-caliber attacks.
  • Leverkusen have kept two clean sheets in Europa League but concede 1.3 goals on average across all competitions.
Price warning

Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 27% (-15.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 3.2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Bayer Leverkusen's superior attacking momentum and sustained shot volume as key factors favoring an away win, combined with OFI's consistent home scoring record that supports both teams finding the net. Despite Leverkusen's Europa League clean sheets, their broader defensive average suggests vulnerability, while OFI's recent defensive lapses increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. However, the current are short relative to the model's 15.3% chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection that warrants cautious staking or waiting for improved pricing or line-up clarity before stronger commitment.

Leverkusen's recent formFive consecutive wins with 2.4 goals per match
Strong positive
OFI's home scoringUnbeaten in six home matches, scoring in all
Positive
Defensive vulnerabilityOFI conceded 9 goals in last 3 matches
Positive
Price sensitivity26.8% model chance vs 42.1% implied (-15.3 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bayer Leverkusen's attacking efficiency and resilience make them strong favorites to win, while OFI's home scoring ability ensures the match will be competitive with goals at both ends. Leverkusen's momentum and shot volume should ultimately secure victory despite OFI's spirited home form.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and BTTS

“Leverkusen's high shot volume and recent winning streak underline their offensive threat, but OFI's unbeaten home run and goal-scoring capability mean both teams scoring is a realistic expectation in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Leverkusen on a five-match winning streak with strong attacking output averaging 2.4 goals per game.

OFI unbeaten in six home matches, scoring consistently including a 2-0 Europa League win over Hoffenheim.

OFI conceded nine goals in their last three matches, highlighting defensive fragility against high-caliber attacks.

Leverkusen have kept two clean sheets in Europa League but concede 1.3 goals on average across all competitions.

What To Watch In The Data

Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, supported by OFI's recent high-scoring defeats and Leverkusen's attacking volume.
  • This trend suggests a match with open play and multiple goal opportunities, consistent with the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals expectations for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

OFI2
Avg goals scored
Bayer Leverkusen3
OFI0.5
Avg goals conceded
Bayer Leverkusen0
OFI25%
BTTS rate
Bayer Leverkusen0%
OFI50%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 51% · edge +11 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have demonstrated scoring ability recently: OFI remains unbeaten at home with consistent goals, while Leverkusen averages 2.4 goals per match. OFI's defensive struggles, conceding nine goals in three matches, increase the probability of both sides scoring, aligning well with the BTTS component of the pick.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Europa League hubfull betting preview for OFI v Bayer Leverkusencorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 89% · edge -19.2 pts
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The 26.8% for Bayer Leverkusen to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 42.1% implied by the current price (-15.3 pts). Bayer Leverkusen need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show OFI on 9 and Bayer Leverkusen on 6. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

OFI

LWWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
15 Oct 2026A Rennes1-2
17 Sep 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim2-0
27 Aug 2026A CSKA Sofia2-0
20 Aug 2026H CSKA Sofia3-0

Bayer Leverkusen

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
15 Oct 2026A Lech Poznan4-0
16 Sep 2026H Celje2-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 81% vs implied 95% · edge -14.3 pts
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Load more odds for this section
Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.13
Check odds @ 1.13
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Leverkusen's recent five-match winning streak across competitions, including two clean sheets in Europa League, highlights their strong form and resilience, recovering from deficits effectively. OFI's recent three-match losing streak contrasts with their unbeaten home run, indicating vulnerability away from home but in their stadium, supporting a competitive but likely Leverkusen-favored outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%OFI Over 2.5
50%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have a 50% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, supported by OFI's recent high-scoring defeats and Leverkusen's attacking volume. This trend suggests a match with open play and multiple goal opportunities, consistent with the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals expectations for this fixture.

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