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Odense crestOdense
v
FC Midtjylland crestFC Midtjylland

Superliga | Sat 19 Sep, 17:00

Odense v FC Midtjylland Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Midtjylland travel to face Odense in a Superliga clash where the visitors hold a strong position in the table and recent form. FC Midtjylland have been solid defensively, conceding fewer than one goal per game on average, while maintaining a potent attack. Odense, sitting mid-table, have struggled defensively and scored less frequently. This match presents a tactical challenge for Odense to contain FC Midtjylland's attacking threats, especially given Midtjylland's momentum and higher points tally so far this season.

BT4Y best bet

FC Midtjylland to Win

  • FC Midtjylland sit 2nd in the league with 18 points, Odense 8th with 8 points.
  • Midtjylland concede only 0.8 goals per game, Odense concede 2.2 on average.
  • Midtjylland average 2.0 goals scored per game, outperforming Odense's 1.2.
  • Recent form shows Midtjylland with 11 points from last matches versus Odense's 5.
  • Midtjylland's shots on target per game (5.5) exceed Odense's (4.2), indicating stronger attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

FC Midtjylland's superior defensive record and higher scoring rate underpin a 70% to win, well above the implied market chance of 57.1%, indicating clear value. Their consistent form and ability to limit goals conceded contrast with Odense's defensive vulnerabilities. The model is strong at 70%, reflecting both teams' season-long performances and recent momentum. No data limitations affect this view, making Midtjylland a solid selection for the win.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57.1%
Positive
Value Edge12.9%
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthMidtjylland concede 0.8 goals/game vs Odense 2.2
Strong positive
Recent FormMidtjylland 11 points vs Odense 5
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Midtjylland's tactical discipline and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation for victory against Odense, who have struggled to contain opponents this season. The visitors' superior goal-scoring and recent form data reinforce their advantage, making a Midtjylland win the most probable outcome in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Midtjylland's blend of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency makes them the clear favorites here, especially given Odense's defensive struggles and inconsistent form.”

Key Data Signals

FC Midtjylland to Win evidence

FC Midtjylland sit 2nd in the league with 18 points, Odense 8th with 8 points.

Midtjylland concede only 0.8 goals per game, Odense concede 2.2 on average.

Midtjylland average 2.0 goals scored per game, outperforming Odense's 1.2.

Recent form shows Midtjylland with 11 points from last matches versus Odense's 5.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Midtjylland to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.7, indicating high-scoring encounters.
  • Odense's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Midtjylland's more moderate 40%, suggesting this fixture often produces goals but with differing attacking styles.
  • The trend points to a lively game with scoring chances for both sides, influenced by tempo and transitions.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Odense6.4
Avg corners for
FC Midtjylland6.4
Odense11.8
Avg total corners
FC Midtjylland10.8
Odense2.8
Avg yellow cards
FC Midtjylland1.2
Odense14.2
Avg shots
FC Midtjylland16.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Midtjylland average 5.5 corners and 15.5 shots per game, slightly higher than Odense's 6.4 corners and 14.2 shots, reflecting balanced attacking pressure. Odense accumulate more yellow cards (2.8 per game) than Midtjylland (1.25), indicating a more aggressive or pressured defensive style that could influence match tempo and discipline.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Odense1.2
Avg goals scored
FC Midtjylland2
Odense2.2
Avg goals conceded
FC Midtjylland0.8
Odense80%
BTTS rate
FC Midtjylland60%
Odense80%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Midtjylland40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Odense have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals and BTTS, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Midtjylland's matches show a more moderate 40% over 2.5 and 60% BTTS rate, suggesting a more controlled attacking approach. This contrast hints at a potentially competitive game with goal-scoring opportunities but also defensive discipline from Midtjylland.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
FC Midtjylland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The current for FC Midtjylland to win reflect a market-implied chance of 57.1%, which is significantly lower than the model's 70% probability, indicating positive value. This price sensitivity suggests the market underestimates Midtjylland's defensive strength and recent form, making the win selection a favorable bet at these .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Odense

WLDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
13 Sep 2026A Randers FC2-1
06 Sep 2026H FC Copenhagen0-5
30 Aug 2026A Lyngby1-1
23 Aug 2026A Aarhus2-2
16 Aug 2026H AC Horsens1-2

FC Midtjylland

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 0L
14 Sep 2026H Brondby4-1
07 Sep 2026H FC Nordsjaelland2-2
02 Sep 2026A Aarhus2-0
30 Aug 2026A Silkeborg1-1
23 Aug 2026H Randers FC1-0
Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
FC Midtjylland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
FC Midtjylland have collected 11 points recently, showcasing consistent winning form and defensive solidity by conceding fewer goals. Odense's recent 5 points reflect struggles in maintaining momentum and defensive lapses, which could be exploited by Midtjylland's efficient attack. This form disparity supports the likelihood of a Midtjylland victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Odense wins
1Draws
8FC Midtjylland wins
17 Jul 2026FC Midtjylland v Odense4-1
15 Feb 2026Odense v FC Midtjylland1-4
20 Jul 2025FC Midtjylland v Odense3-3
23 Oct 2023Odense v FC Midtjylland1-2
24 Sep 2023FC Midtjylland v Odense2-1
03 Jun 2023FC Midtjylland v Odense4-2
Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 10 previous meetings between these teams have averaged 4.7 goals per game, highlighting historically open and attacking contests. While this supports the potential for goals, the head-to-head data is less decisive on the outright winner, placing greater emphasis on current form and season-long defensive records to guide the outcome.
Season team stats

Superliga

Odense8
Played
FC Midtjylland8
Odense0.9
Avg goals for
FC Midtjylland2
Odense1.6
Avg goals against
FC Midtjylland1
Odense1
Clean sheets
FC Midtjylland2
Market aligned with main pickFC Midtjylland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
FC Midtjylland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over the season, Midtjylland have demonstrated a strong attack with 2.0 goals per game and a robust defense conceding only 0.8 goals, contrasting with Odense's 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. This statistical profile highlights Midtjylland's balance and superiority, reinforcing their winning chances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2FC Midtjylland1885308
9Odense88224-6
Midtjylland's 2nd place standing with 18 points reflects their status as title contenders, while Odense's 8th place with 8 points indicates mid-table security but limited upward momentum. The league context suggests Midtjylland have more at stake to maintain pressure near the top, potentially influencing their tactical approach.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Odense Over 2.5
40%FC Midtjylland Over 2.5
4.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.7, indicating high-scoring encounters. Odense's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Midtjylland's more moderate 40%, suggesting this fixture often produces goals but with differing attacking styles. The trend points to a lively game with scoring chances for both sides, influenced by tempo and transitions.

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