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Newport County crestNewport County
v
Rochdale crestRochdale

League Two | Sat 15 Aug, 12:30

Newport County v Rochdale Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newport County face Rochdale in League Two on Sat 15 Aug, 12:30. Rochdale's efficient finishing and recent inability to keep clean sheets suggest both sides are likely to score in this fixture. Newport's home form and Rochdale's unbeaten run create a balanced contest with multiple possible outcomes.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Both Teams To Score YES

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 8/13, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 62%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow away victory with both teams scoring.
Price warning

Both Teams To Score YES is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 50% (-11.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Newport County to Win shows a +8.5 pts edge at 2.9.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 62% implied by the current price. Rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow away victory with both teams scoring.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 62% implied
Negative
Rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -11.9 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow away victory with both teams scoring. Promotion may have changed their level, but they arrive at Rodney Parade with a sustained habit of avoiding defeat.

Main risk

Promotion may have changed their level, but they arrive at Rodney Parade with a sustained habit of avoiding defeat.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow away victory with both teams scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newport County-
Avg goals scored
Rochdale-
Newport County-
Avg goals conceded
Rochdale-
Newport County-
BTTS rate
Rochdale-
Newport County-
Over 2.5 goals
Rochdale-
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 56% · edge -5.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price; this needs scoring involvement from both teams, not just pressure from one side.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 56% · edge -5.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newport County

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Newport County yet.

Rochdale

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Rochdale yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Newport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Newport County wins
1Draws
4Rochdale wins
07 Jan 2023Rochdale v Newport County1-1
08 Oct 2022Newport County v Rochdale0-1
07 May 2022Newport County v Rochdale0-2
18 Dec 2021Rochdale v Newport County3-0
03 May 2014Newport County v Rochdale2-1
12 Oct 2013Rochdale v Newport County3-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 56% · edge -5.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Newport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Newport County0
Played
Rochdale0
Newport County0
Avg goals for
Rochdale0
Newport County0
Avg goals against
Rochdale0
Newport County0
Clean sheets
Rochdale0
Best odds for this sectionNewport County Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +5.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Newport County to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Rochdale to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Rochdale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Season data supports Newport County Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Rochdale000000
22Newport County000000
Newport County sit in position 22, while Rochdale sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score YES assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Newport County Over 2.5
-Rochdale Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Rochdale's momentum and Newport's defensive vulnerabilities support a narrow away victory with both teams scoring.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Newport County v Rochdale prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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