Football Stats Hub

Newport County crestNewport County
v
Plymouth crestPlymouth

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

Newport County v Plymouth Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash features Newport County hosting Plymouth in a fixture where Plymouth arrives with a clear attacking edge and recent scoring momentum. Plymouth's offensive output has been strong, averaging five goals in recent matches with a high volume of shots and shots on target, signaling their intent to control the game. Newport County, while defensively solid with no goals conceded recently, have struggled to find the net, indicating a tactical battle between Plymouth's forward pressure and Newport's defensive resilience. The match promises tactical intrigue with Plymouth favored to leverage their attacking prowess.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Plymouth to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 56% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Plymouth has scored 5 goals in recent matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Newport County has kept clean sheets recently but has scored only 2 goals, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Plymouth averages 22 shots and 12 shots on target per game, dominating attacking metrics.
  • Newport County averages only 2 corners per game compared to Plymouth's 6, reflecting territorial control.
Price warning

Plymouth to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 56% (-5.5 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Newport County Draw No Bet shows a +11.7 pts edge at 3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model favors Plymouth to win with a 58.6% chance based on their superior attacking metrics and recent form. Plymouth's high shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast with Newport County's defensive but less threatening offense. Despite the being slightly short, the football read for Plymouth's victory is strong due to their offensive control and ability to create quality chances. The data quality is solid, supporting in this selection, though cautious staking is advised given the price sensitivity.

Model Chance56.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-5.5 pts)
Positive
Implied Chance56.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-5.5 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge56.2% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-5.5 pts)
Neutral
Recent FormPlymouth scoring 5 goals vs Newport's 2
Positive
Shots and SOTPlymouth averages 22 shots, 12 SOT vs Newport 14 shots, 5 SOT
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Plymouth's attacking firepower and recent scoring form make them the tactical favorite in this EFL Trophy tie. Their ability to generate high-quality chances and maintain pressure contrasts with Newport County's limited offensive threat, making Plymouth's win the most probable outcome based on both form and data.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and data-driven match outcome

“Plymouth's control in shots and goal-scoring opportunities sets a clear tactical advantage that should translate into a victory, despite Newport's defensive efforts.”

Key Data Signals

Plymouth to Win evidence

Plymouth has scored 5 goals in recent matches, showing strong attacking form.

Newport County has kept clean sheets recently but has scored only 2 goals, indicating offensive struggles.

Plymouth averages 22 shots and 12 shots on target per game, dominating attacking metrics.

Newport County averages only 2 corners per game compared to Plymouth's 6, reflecting territorial control.

What To Watch In The Data

Plymouth to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Plymouth's recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate suggests an increased tempo and attacking intent that could push the match towards a higher goal count than the historical average.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newport County2
Avg goals scored
Plymouth5
Newport County0
Avg goals conceded
Plymouth1
Newport County0%
BTTS rate
Plymouth100%
Newport County0%
Over 2.5 goals
Plymouth100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Plymouth's recent matches show a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, reflecting an open attacking style. Newport County's recent clean sheets contrast with their low scoring, suggesting a tactical clash that could produce goals primarily from Plymouth's side.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 62% · edge -5.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The 56.2% for Plymouth to Win sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (-5.5 pts). Newport County have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Plymouth to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newport County

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026A Swindon Town2-0

Plymouth

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Crystal Palace U215-1
Market aligned with main pickPlymouth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 62% · edge -5.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Plymouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Plymouth's recent form is marked by prolific scoring and consistent offensive pressure, contrasting with Newport County's defensive solidity but lack of goals. This form disparity supports Plymouth's chances to break through and secure a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Newport County Over 2.5
100%Plymouth Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Plymouth's recent 100% over 2.5 goals rate suggests an increased tempo and attacking intent that could push the match towards a higher goal count than the historical average.

Loading deeper match data…