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Grimsby crestGrimsby

League Two | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Newport County v Grimsby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features Grimsby, sitting third in the table with 13 points, visiting Newport County, who are 19th with 6 points. Grimsby have shown strong attacking form, averaging 2 goals per game and creating significantly more shots and chances than Newport, who have struggled to score consistently. The visitors' higher league position and recent momentum suggest they will look to control the game and capitalize on Newport's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have similar defensive concession rates, adding intrigue to the contest's balance and tactical battle.

BT4Y best bet

Grimsby to Win

  • Grimsby ranks 3rd with 13 points, Newport 19th with 6 points
  • Grimsby averages 2 goals per game vs Newport's 0.8
  • Grimsby averages 17 shots and 7.75 corners per game, significantly higher than Newport
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating goal-scoring potential on both sides
  • Grimsby has a strong recent form with 9 points from last matches compared to Newport's 3

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Grimsby's 70% to win is supported by their superior offensive metrics, including double the average goals per game and more than 1.7 times the shots per match compared to Newport County. Their higher league standing and recent form reinforce this edge. The price at 1.8 offers positive value against the implied 55.6% chance. While both teams concede similarly, Grimsby's attacking control and territorial control make them the favored side. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Grimsby Offensive Output2 goals per game, 17 shots per game
Strong positive
Newport Defensive Concession1.2 goals against per game
Neutral
Price vs Model1.8 odds vs 55.6% implied chance
Positive
Recent FormGrimsby 9 points vs Newport 3 points
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grimsby's superior attacking statistics and higher league position make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and corners reflects a proactive style that should challenge Newport's defense effectively. The recent form gap further supports Grimsby's chances of securing victory in this contest.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grimsby's offensive firepower and consistent form give them a clear tactical advantage over Newport County, who have struggled to produce goals and points this season. Expect Grimsby to impose their game and capitalize on their momentum.”

Key Data Signals

Grimsby to Win evidence

Grimsby ranks 3rd with 13 points, Newport 19th with 6 points

Grimsby averages 2 goals per game vs Newport's 0.8

Grimsby averages 17 shots and 7.75 corners per game, significantly higher than Newport

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating goal-scoring potential on both sides

What To Watch In The Data

Grimsby to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored was 1.4, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters historically.
  • However, current season data shows a higher over 2.5 goals rate for Grimsby at 60%, suggesting a more attacking approach recently.
  • This trend points to a potential increase in goal-scoring tempo and chances, making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Newport County3.6
Avg corners for
Grimsby7.8
Newport County8.6
Avg total corners
Grimsby12.6
Newport County1.8
Avg yellow cards
Grimsby1.6
Newport County9.8
Avg shots
Grimsby15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Grimsby's control in shots (17 per game) and corners (7.75 per game) compared to Newport's 9.8 shots and 3.6 corners highlights their territorial and attacking pressure. Both teams maintain similar yellow card averages, suggesting a balanced discipline level. The volume of shots and set-piece opportunities for Grimsby supports an aggressive attacking approach likely to create chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newport County0.8
Avg goals scored
Grimsby2
Newport County1.2
Avg goals conceded
Grimsby1.2
Newport County60%
BTTS rate
Grimsby60%
Newport County40%
Over 2.5 goals
Grimsby60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have a 60% rate of both teams scoring, indicating a strong likelihood of goals at both ends. Grimsby's average of 2 goals per game combined with Newport's 0.8 goals suggests an open game with scoring opportunities. The 1.4 average goals in their last 10 meetings points to moderate scoring, but current attacking trends favor a higher goal count and BTTS possibility.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Grimsby Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The current of 1.8 for a Grimsby win reflect a positive value opportunity given the model's 70% win probability. The price is attractive relative to the implied chance of 55.6%, indicating the market may be underestimating Grimsby's chances. This pricing suggests in Grimsby's form and offensive metrics, making the bet a sensible choice without major price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newport County

DDLLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Accrington ST0-0
12 Sep 2026H Fleetwood Town1-1
05 Sep 2026A Northampton0-1
01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
29 Aug 2026H Tranmere2-2

Grimsby

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 0L
19 Sep 2026H Crawley Town2-0
12 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers2-0
05 Sep 2026A Cheltenham2-2
01 Sep 2026A Accrington ST2-2
29 Aug 2026H Fleetwood Town2-2
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Grimsby Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Grimsby's recent form is strong, accumulating 9 points compared to Newport's 3 in the same period. This momentum is reflected in their higher goal-scoring rate and shot creation, suggesting and attacking rhythm. Newport's struggle to convert chances and lower point tally highlight challenges in form and offensive efficiency, favoring Grimsby's winning prospects.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Newport County wins
4Draws
4Grimsby wins
07 Feb 2026Newport County v Grimsby0-0
16 Aug 2025Grimsby v Newport County2-1
22 Mar 2025Grimsby v Newport County1-0
16 Nov 2024Newport County v Grimsby0-0
06 Apr 2024Grimsby v Newport County1-0
16 Dec 2023Newport County v Grimsby1-1
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows a modest average of 1.4 goals per game, indicating generally tight contests. While this historical data offers some background, recent form and attacking statistics provide a stronger basis for prediction. The previous meetings only weakly support the current expectation of a Grimsby win, emphasizing the importance of current season dynamics.
Season team stats

League Two

Newport County7
Played
Grimsby7
Newport County1.4
Avg goals for
Grimsby1.6
Newport County1.6
Avg goals against
Grimsby0.9
Newport County2
Clean sheets
Grimsby4
Market aligned with main pickGrimsby to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Grimsby Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over the season, Grimsby has maintained a high scoring rate of 2 goals per game while conceding 1.2, demonstrating an effective attack balanced by moderate defense. Newport's lower scoring average of 0.8 goals per game and similar concession rate suggest offensive limitations. These season-long trends reinforce Grimsby's advantage in creating and converting chances, supporting their win probability.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Grimsby1373405
19Newport County67133-1
Grimsby's position near the top of League Two with 13 points contrasts with Newport County's lower standing at 19th with 6 points. This gap reflects consistent performance and points accumulation by Grimsby, indicating stronger overall team quality and form. The standings context underscores the pressure on Newport to improve and the Grimsby can draw from their league status.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Newport County Over 2.5
60%Grimsby Over 2.5
1.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored was 1.4, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters historically. However, current season data shows a higher over 2.5 goals rate for Grimsby at 60%, suggesting a more attacking approach recently. This trend points to a potential increase in goal-scoring tempo and chances, making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Newport County v Grimsby prediction

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