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Newport County crestNewport County
v
Fleetwood Town crestFleetwood Town

League Two | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Newport County v Fleetwood Town Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two fixture features Fleetwood Town visiting Newport County, with Fleetwood currently sitting 6th in the table compared to Newport's 20th. Fleetwood have shown more defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Newport have struggled at the back, allowing 2 goals per match. Fleetwood's recent form is stronger, having secured 9 points versus Newport's 4. The visitors' tactical approach emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, which could exploit Newport's defensive vulnerabilities in this mid-September clash.

BT4Y best bet

Fleetwood Town to Win

  • Fleetwood Town ranks 6th with 9 points, Newport 20th with 4 points.
  • Fleetwood concedes only 0.6 goals per game, Newport concedes 2.
  • Fleetwood averages 13.6 shots per game, nearly double Newport's 7.8.
  • Fleetwood's recent form shows 9 points gained, indicating momentum.
  • Fleetwood's defensive strength contrasts with Newport's leaky defense.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Fleetwood Town's win probability is modelled at 64.5%, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating strong value at 2.1 . Their defensive record is impressive, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, which should frustrate Newport's attack that averages 1.8 goals per game but concedes heavily. Fleetwood's superior shot volume and recent form further support their chances. No data limitations affect in this pick, making it a solid value selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Win Probability64.5%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance47.6%
Positive
Fleetwood Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Fleetwood Recent Form9 points from last matches
Positive
Newport Defensive Weakness2 goals conceded per game
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fleetwood Town's defensive discipline and recent positive results give them a tactical edge over Newport County, whose defensive frailties have been exposed this season. The visitors' ability to create more chances and maintain defensive solidity makes them the likely winners in this contest.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view

“Fleetwood's blend of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency positions them well to secure victory against a defensively vulnerable Newport side struggling for form.”

Key Data Signals

Fleetwood Town to Win evidence

Fleetwood Town ranks 6th with 9 points, Newport 20th with 4 points.

Fleetwood concedes only 0.6 goals per game, Newport concedes 2.

Fleetwood averages 13.6 shots per game, nearly double Newport's 7.8.

Fleetwood's recent form shows 9 points gained, indicating momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Fleetwood Town to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.88, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Fleetwood's recent matches show a lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) compared to Newport's 80%, suggesting this fixture may lean towards a tighter, more controlled game with limited goal-scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newport County1.8
Avg goals scored
Fleetwood Town1.2
Newport County2
Avg goals conceded
Fleetwood Town0.6
Newport County60%
BTTS rate
Fleetwood Town40%
Newport County80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fleetwood Town20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 60% · edge +3.4 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Goal trends suggest a lower scoring game with Fleetwood conceding just 0.6 goals per match, while Newport's matches see a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 80%. Both teams to score rates are moderate, with Newport at 60% and Fleetwood at 40%, indicating a possibility of a tight game with limited scoring from Fleetwood.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFleetwood Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The current of 2.1 for Fleetwood Town to win offer clear value compared to the model's 64.5% win probability. This price reflects an underestimation of Fleetwood's defensive strength and recent form, making the market attractive for backing the away side with standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Newport County2.8
Avg corners for
Fleetwood Town5.2
Newport County9.8
Avg total corners
Fleetwood Town9.6
Newport County2
Avg yellow cards
Fleetwood Town2.4
Newport County7.8
Avg shots
Fleetwood Town13.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 67% · edge +2.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Fleetwood averages 5.2 corners per game and 13.6 shots, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Newport's 2.8 corners and 7.8 shots suggest less offensive threat. Both teams have similar yellow card averages around 2 per game, reflecting a balanced disciplinary profile likely to maintain match flow.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newport County

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
05 Sep 2026A Northampton0-1
01 Sep 2026A Salford City1-2
29 Aug 2026H Tranmere2-2
22 Aug 2026A Bristol Rovers3-5
15 Aug 2026H Rochdale3-0

Fleetwood Town

WDDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
05 Sep 2026H Shrewsbury2-0
01 Sep 2026H Oldham1-1
29 Aug 2026A Grimsby2-2
22 Aug 2026H Gillingham0-0
15 Aug 2026A Chesterfield1-0
Market aligned with main pickFleetwood Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fleetwood Town's recent form is strong, with 9 points gained compared to Newport's 4, reflecting better momentum and . Fleetwood's defensive solidity and ability to convert chances contrast with Newport's struggles to maintain clean sheets and consistent scoring, suggesting Fleetwood's form advantage is significant in this matchup.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Newport County wins
3Draws
4Fleetwood Town wins
28 Feb 2026Fleetwood Town v Newport County0-0
13 Dec 2025Newport County v Fleetwood Town0-2
26 Apr 2025Fleetwood Town v Newport County2-0
26 Oct 2024Newport County v Fleetwood Town0-0
04 Mar 2014Newport County v Fleetwood Town0-0
02 Nov 2013Fleetwood Town v Newport County4-1
Market aligned with main pickFleetwood Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head history between Newport County and Fleetwood Town includes eight matches with an average of 1.88 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring affairs. This trend weakly supports a cautious approach, with Fleetwood's defensive strength likely to keep the game tight, aligning with the pick for a Fleetwood win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

League Two

Newport County5
Played
Fleetwood Town5
Newport County1.8
Avg goals for
Fleetwood Town1.2
Newport County2
Avg goals against
Fleetwood Town0.6
Newport County1
Clean sheets
Fleetwood Town3
Market aligned with main pickFleetwood Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Fleetwood Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Fleetwood's season stats show a well-balanced team with a solid defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game and a decent attack averaging 1.2 goals. Newport's higher goals conceded per game (2) highlights defensive vulnerabilities, which Fleetwood can exploit. The statistical profile supports Fleetwood's likelihood to control the game and secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Fleetwood Town952303
20Newport County45113-1
Fleetwood Town's 6th place standing with 9 points reflects a team competing for promotion spots, while Newport County's 20th position with 4 points indicates relegation zone proximity. The league context adds pressure on Newport to perform, but Fleetwood's stable position suggests and less risk-taking, favoring the visitors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Newport County Over 2.5
20%Fleetwood Town Over 2.5
1.88H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.88, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Fleetwood's recent matches show a lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) compared to Newport's 80%, suggesting this fixture may lean towards a tighter, more controlled game with limited goal-scoring chances.

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Prediction context

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