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New York City FC crestNew York City FC
v
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

Major League Soccer | Sun 16 Aug, 23:00

New York City FC v Philadelphia Union Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features New York City FC hosting Philadelphia Union in a contest where Philadelphia aims to overturn recent away struggles. Philadelphia has shown attacking potency with 2.4 goals per game but concedes 2.0 on average, indicating an open style that could be exploited. New York City FC, fifth in the standings, have a solid home record but face a Philadelphia side with momentum from recent results. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this competitive fixture at an undisclosed venue.

BT4Y best bet

Philadelphia Union to Win

  • Philadelphia Union averages 2.4 goals per game, showing strong attacking form.
  • New York City FC concedes 1.2 goals per game, indicating some defensive vulnerability.
  • Philadelphia Union takes significantly more shots per game (20.4) than New York City FC (11).
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting open games.
  • Philadelphia Union ranks 13th but has recent form points advantage over New York City FC.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Philadelphia Union to win with a 51.4% chance, reflecting their superior shot volume and attacking threat despite a lower league position. Philadelphia's ability to generate 20.4 shots per game and key players like M. Sullivan contribute to this edge. The price at 3.0 offers positive value given the implied chance of 33.3%. Defensive frailties on both sides and high BTTS rates support a competitive match where Philadelphia's offensive pressure could secure victory. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability51.4%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance33.3%
Positive
Shot Volume AdvantagePhiladelphia 20.4 vs NYC 11
Strong positive
BTTS RatesNYC 100%, Philadelphia 80%
Positive
League PositionNYC 5th vs Philadelphia 13th
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Philadelphia Union's high shot volume and attacking talent, including M. Sullivan, provide a tactical edge in this matchup. Despite their lower league standing, Philadelphia's offensive pressure and recent form suggest they can overcome New York City FC's home advantage and secure a win in this open, high-tempo MLS fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking pressure and shot volume

“Philadelphia Union's ability to generate shots and key passes at a high rate creates a strong attacking foundation that can challenge New York City FC's defense, making them a compelling pick for the win.”

Key Data Signals

Philadelphia Union to Win evidence

Philadelphia Union averages 2.4 goals per game, showing strong attacking form.

New York City FC concedes 1.2 goals per game, indicating some defensive vulnerability.

Philadelphia Union takes significantly more shots per game (20.4) than New York City FC (11).

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Philadelphia Union to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games.
  • Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season, reinforcing the expectation of a fast-paced match with multiple scoring opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

New York City FC2
Avg corners for
Philadelphia Union5
New York City FC5.67
Avg total corners
Philadelphia Union8.75
New York City FC1.67
Avg yellow cards
Philadelphia Union1.5
New York City FC10.33
Avg shots
Philadelphia Union18
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 50% · edge +1.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Philadelphia Union averages 6.4 corners per game compared to New York City FC's 2, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure. Both teams average 1.8 yellow cards per game, reflecting moderate discipline levels. Philadelphia's higher shot volume (20.4) and shots on target (7.2) underline their offensive threat and ability to create quality chances.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New York City FC1.6
Avg goals scored
Philadelphia Union2.4
New York City FC1.2
Avg goals conceded
Philadelphia Union2
New York City FC100%
BTTS rate
Philadelphia Union80%
New York City FC60%
Over 2.5 goals
Philadelphia Union60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals, with New York City FC scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 per game, while Philadelphia scores 2.4 but concedes 2.0. The high BTTS rates (100% for NYC and 80% for Philadelphia) suggest an open game with goals at both ends, supporting an attacking match narrative.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The of 3.0 for Philadelphia Union to win represent a positive value opportunity given the model's 51.4% win probability. This price reflects market underestimation of Philadelphia's offensive capabilities and recent form, making the selection attractive without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New York City FC

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
01 Aug 2026H Toronto FC1-1
26 Jul 2026H Chicago Fire3-1
23 Jul 2026A Columbus Crew2-1
24 May 2026A Nashville SC1-2
17 May 2026A New York Red Bulls1-1

Philadelphia Union

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
02 Aug 2026H Atlanta United FC3-2
26 Jul 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0
23 Jul 2026H New York Red Bulls3-1
25 May 2026A Inter Miami4-6
17 May 2026H Columbus Crew1-1
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Philadelphia Union has accumulated 10 points recently compared to New York City FC's 8, showing slightly better momentum. Philadelphia's higher goals per game (2.4) and sustained offensive output suggest they are in better form to challenge New York City FC, who have a solid but less prolific recent record.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4New York City FC wins
0Draws
6Philadelphia Union wins
01 Mar 2026Philadelphia Union v New York City FC1-2
24 Nov 2025Philadelphia Union v New York City FC0-1
05 Oct 2025Philadelphia Union v New York City FC1-0
13 Apr 2025New York City FC v Philadelphia Union1-0
19 Sep 2024New York City FC v Philadelphia Union1-5
16 May 2024Philadelphia Union v New York City FC1-2
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 3 goals per game, supporting an open and attacking fixture. While past meetings provide context, current form and player performances carry more weight in predicting the outcome of this encounter.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

New York City FC19
Played
Philadelphia Union19
New York City FC1.7
Avg goals for
Philadelphia Union1.5
New York City FC1.4
Avg goals against
Philadelphia Union1.8
New York City FC3
Clean sheets
Philadelphia Union3
Market aligned with main pickPhiladelphia Union to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Philadelphia Union Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Philadelphia Union's season stats reveal a potent offense with 2.4 goals per game but a leaky defense conceding 2.0, indicating an aggressive playing style. New York City FC's more balanced stats (1.6 goals for, 1.2 against) suggest a more controlled approach. Philadelphia's offensive numbers support the pick despite defensive concerns.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7New York City FC26197576
13Philadelphia Union19195410-7
New York City FC sits 5th with 26 points, while Philadelphia Union is 13th with 16 points. Although Philadelphia is lower in the table, recent form and attacking metrics suggest they can overcome the ranking gap. The standings provide background but are less decisive given the match stakes and form dynamics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%New York City FC Over 2.5
60%Philadelphia Union Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a tendency for open, high-scoring games. Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season, reinforcing the expectation of a fast-paced match with multiple scoring opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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