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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Sweden crestSweden

World Cup | Sat 20 Jun, 18:00

Netherlands v Sweden Stats

Data last updated: Sun 12 Jul 2026, 21:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Sweden in World Cup on Sat 20 Jun, 18:00. Group Tension, Goals, and a Dutch Side With Something to Prove. Sweden bring serious scoring form through Isak and Gyökeres but have conceded 1.78 goals per game recently, pointing toward a Dutch victory where both secure goals.

BT4Y match pick

Requires the Netherlands to win the match and both teams to score

  • At 13/5, Netherlands Win implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Sweden have conceded 16 goals across nine matches, an average of 1.
  • Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Netherlands.
  • Sweden have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Netherlands Win sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Netherlands. Sweden have conceded that scoring level across nine matches, an average of 1.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Neutral
Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Sweden have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Sweden have conceded 16 goals across nine matches, an.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Netherlands Win is the preferred angle because sweden have conceded that scoring level across nine matches, an average of 1.78 per game, while the Netherlands have conceded only 10 across 11, at 0.91 per game. Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Netherlands. The Netherlands, however, cannot drift through this contest.

Main risk

The Netherlands, however, cannot drift through this contest.

Key Data Signals

Netherlands Win evidence

Sweden have conceded 16 goals across nine matches, an average of 1.

Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Netherlands.

Sweden have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Netherlands5
    Avg corners for
    Sweden4
    Netherlands9
    Avg total corners
    Sweden6
    Netherlands3
    Avg yellow cards
    Sweden0
    Netherlands10
    Avg shots
    Sweden13
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.1 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    World Cup hubNetherlands v Sweden predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Netherlands2
    Avg goals scored
    Sweden5
    Netherlands2
    Avg goals conceded
    Sweden1
    Netherlands100%
    BTTS rate
    Sweden100%
    Netherlands100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Sweden100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 56% · edge +22.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Netherlands to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Netherlands

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    14 Jun 2026H Japan2-2

    Sweden

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    15 Jun 2026H Tunisia5-1
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Netherlands wins
    1Draws
    0Sweden wins
    10 Oct 2017Netherlands v Sweden2-0
    06 Sep 2016Sweden v Netherlands1-1
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Netherlands to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Netherlands4
    Played
    Sweden4
    Netherlands2.8
    Avg goals for
    Sweden1.8
    Netherlands1.5
    Avg goals against
    Sweden2.5
    Netherlands0
    Clean sheets
    Sweden0
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 59% · edge -31.8 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Netherlands Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season data supports Netherlands to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Netherlands732106
    3Sweden431110
    2Sweden431110
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Netherlands Over 2.5
    100%Sweden Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Netherlands sit at 100% and Sweden sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Netherlands v Sweden prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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