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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Japan crestJapan

World Cup | Sun 14 Jun, 21:00

Netherlands v Japan Stats

Data last updated: Mon 06 Jul 2026, 13:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Japan in World Cup on Sun 14 Jun, 21:00. Netherlands and Japan begin their World Cup campaigns at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in a Group F opener that already feels bigger than a first match should.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

S include a home win, an away win, or a draw

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 50%, above the 43% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 1/1, Netherlands Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • Japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 games and conceded only 12 goals, giving them the stronger raw defensive return.
Price warning

S include a home win, an away win, or a draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 50% while the model sits nearer 43% (-7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +9.1 pts edge at 1.91.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 43% for Netherlands Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 games and conceded only that scoring level, giving them the stronger raw defensive return.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Negative
Japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -7 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Netherlands Win is the preferred angle because japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 games and conceded only that scoring level, giving them the stronger raw defensive return. Their attacking profile is strong but not perfect.

Main risk

Their attacking profile is strong but not perfect.

Key Data Signals

Netherlands Win evidence

Japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 games and conceded only 12 goals, giving them.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands Win notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 50% · edge -7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Netherlands Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Netherlands to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Netherlands-
    Avg goals scored
    Japan-
    Netherlands-
    Avg goals conceded
    Japan-
    Netherlands-
    BTTS rate
    Japan-
    Netherlands-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Japan-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 52% · edge +9.1 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Netherlands

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Netherlands yet.

    Japan

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Japan yet.

    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 50% · edge -7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Netherlands Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Netherlands wins
    0Draws
    0Japan wins
    19 Jun 2010Netherlands v Japan1-0
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 50% · edge -7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Netherlands to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Netherlands4
    Played
    Japan4
    Netherlands2.8
    Avg goals for
    Japan2
    Netherlands1.5
    Avg goals against
    Japan1.3
    Netherlands0
    Clean sheets
    Japan1
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 50% · edge -7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Netherlands Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
    1.52
    Check odds @ 1.52
    Season data supports Netherlands to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Netherlands732106
    2Japan531204
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Netherlands Over 2.5
    -Japan Over 2.5
    1H2H avg goals
    Japan have kept 12 clean sheets in their last 20 games and conceded only 12 goals, giving them the stronger raw defensive return.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Netherlands v Japan prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre