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Napoli crestNapoli
v
Cremonese crestCremonese

Serie A | Fri 24 Apr, 19:45

Napoli v Cremonese Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 04:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Napoli face Cremonese in Serie A on Fri 24 Apr, 19:45. Scott McTominay has scored three goals in his last six league appearances, emerging as a key attacking threat from midfield. Napoli’s 26-match unbeaten home run in Serie A was ended last week — their first such defeat since December 2024.

BT4Y best bet

Three, is well-suited to neutralising a Cremonese side that has lacked any meaningful attacking rhythm recently

  • At 10/11, Napoli Win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 73%.
  • For well over a year, Napoli turned their home into a fortress.
  • Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese.
  • Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Cremonese sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 73% for Napoli Win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese. For well over a year, Napoli turned their home into a fortress.

Model chance vs price73% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
For well over a year, Napoli turned their home.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Napoli Win is the preferred angle because for well over a year, Napoli turned their home into a fortress. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese. It’s improvement, yes, but not enough to create breathing room.

Main risk

It’s improvement, yes, but not enough to create breathing room.

Key Data Signals

Napoli Win evidence

For well over a year, Napoli turned their home into a fortress.

Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Cremonese.

Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Cremonese sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Napoli Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Napoli1
    Avg goals scored
    Cremonese0.8
    Napoli0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Cremonese1.4
    Napoli40%
    BTTS rate
    Cremonese40%
    Napoli20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cremonese40%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 7% · edge +46.1 pts
    15
    Check odds @ 15
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
    13
    Check odds @ 13
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Napoli

    LDWWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    18 Apr 2026H Lazio0-2
    12 Apr 2026A Parma1-1
    06 Apr 2026H AC Milan1-0
    20 Mar 2026A Cagliari1-0
    14 Mar 2026H Lecce2-1

    Cremonese

    DLLWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    19 Apr 2026H Torino0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Cagliari0-1
    05 Apr 2026H Bologna1-2
    21 Mar 2026A Parma2-0
    16 Mar 2026H Fiorentina1-4
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 75% · edge -2.5 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    Napoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Napoli7638237822
    18Cremonese343881020-25
    Napoli sit in position 2, while Cremonese sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Napoli Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 75% · edge -2.5 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Napoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Napoli to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Napoli7.4
    Avg corners for
    Cremonese3.6
    Napoli10.4
    Avg total corners
    Cremonese7.6
    Napoli1
    Avg yellow cards
    Cremonese1.4
    Napoli14.2
    Avg shots
    Cremonese9.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 46% · edge +8.1 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Napoli wins
    1Draws
    0Cremonese wins
    28 Dec 2025Cremonese v Napoli0-2
    12 Feb 2023Napoli v Cremonese3-0
    17 Jan 2023Napoli v Cremonese2-2
    09 Oct 2022Cremonese v Napoli1-4
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 75% · edge -2.5 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 57%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Napoli to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Napoli38
    Played
    Cremonese38
    Napoli1.5
    Avg goals for
    Cremonese0.8
    Napoli0.9
    Avg goals against
    Cremonese1.5
    Napoli15
    Clean sheets
    Cremonese11
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 75% · edge -2.5 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    Napoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Season data supports Napoli to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Napoli Over 2.5
    40%Cremonese Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Napoli sit at 20% and Cremonese sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.