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Motherwell crestMotherwell
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Motherwell v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 20:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Motherwell and St Mirren meet in a Scottish Premiership clash where defensive solidity stands out for both sides. St Mirren have kept three consecutive clean sheets, conceding very few shots on target, while Motherwell have drawn their last two league games 0-0 despite controlling possession. Both teams have shown limited attacking threat early in the season, with Motherwell's possession not translating into clear chances and St Mirren's defense restricting opponents effectively. This tactical setup suggests a tightly contested, low-scoring match where goals may be scarce, setting the stage for a cautious encounter at the SMISA Stadium.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • St Mirren have kept three clean sheets in their last three Premiership matches.
  • Motherwell have recorded back-to-back 0-0 draws despite high possession.
  • Both teams average just over 10 attempts per game, indicating limited attacking penetration.
  • St Mirren concede only 2.4 shots on target per game, highlighting defensive compactness.
  • Motherwell’s possession has not consistently resulted in shots on goal, limiting scoring chances.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes the strong defensive records of both teams, with St Mirren conceding very few shots and goals, and Motherwell struggling to convert possession into meaningful chances. The low shot volumes and recent clean sheets support a low-scoring outcome. However, the current are short compared to the model's estimated chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection. Reduced staking or waiting for better is advised, as improvements in team news or line-ups could enhance value.

Defensive SoliditySt Mirren's three clean sheets and low shots conceded
Strong positive
Limited Shot VolumeBoth teams average around 10 attempts per game
Positive
Possession InefficiencyMotherwell's high possession but low shots on target
Positive
Price Sensitivity40% model chance vs 43.5% implied (-3.5 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given the defensive discipline both teams have shown early in the season. St Mirren's ability to limit shots on target and Motherwell's possession without penetration suggest few clear chances will be created. This tactical and form-based evidence points to a low-scoring game where goals will be at a premium.

Main risk

Risk Factor: Early goals could open the match beyond two total goals due to St Mirren's cup loss and Motherwell's European concession.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive and tactical match analysis

“St Mirren’s defensive compactness combined with Motherwell’s possession-heavy but low-threat approach makes a low-scoring game the most plausible outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

St Mirren have kept three clean sheets in their last three Premiership matches.

Motherwell have recorded back-to-back 0-0 draws despite high possession.

Both teams average just over 10 attempts per game, indicating limited attacking penetration.

St Mirren concede only 2.4 shots on target per game, highlighting defensive compactness.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring historically.
  • However, recent form and defensive improvements by St Mirren suggest a lower tempo and fewer goals in this match, making Over 2.5 goals less likely despite historical averages.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Motherwell1
Avg goals scored
ST Mirren0.8
Motherwell2.2
Avg goals conceded
ST Mirren2.6
Motherwell60%
BTTS rate
ST Mirren60%
Motherwell60%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Mirren80%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -3.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have demonstrated strong defensive performances, with St Mirren conceding zero goals in three league matches and Motherwell recording consecutive goalless draws. Shot volumes are low for both sides, supporting a low-scoring game with a high likelihood of BTTS No and under 3.5 goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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ST Mirren Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
Motherwell Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Motherwell to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 40% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 43.5% implied by the current price (-3.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Motherwell and 80% for ST Mirren, so the goals angle is not just a price call. While Killian Phillips has provided crucial individual moments with four goals across that 10-game sample, Saints are not creating high volumes of chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Motherwell

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
28 Oct 2026A ST Johnstone2-2
25 Oct 2026H Heart Of Midlothian0-2
17 Oct 2026A Kilmarnock2-3
11 Oct 2026H Celtic0-2
19 Sep 2026A Dundee1-2

ST Mirren

DWLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
28 Oct 2026H Hibernian1-1
24 Oct 2026H Dundee2-1
17 Oct 2026A Aberdeen1-3
10 Oct 2026A Heart Of Midlothian0-5
19 Sep 2026H Dundee Utd0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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ST Mirren Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
ST Mirren to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Motherwell Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Motherwell to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows St Mirren with four points and a goals-against average of 2.6, reflecting strong defensive performances. Motherwell have one point with a goals-against average of 2.2, also indicating defensive resilience. Both teams have over 2.5 goals rates above 60%, but recent matches have been low scoring, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals prediction.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Motherwell Over 2.5
80%ST Mirren Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.8, indicating moderate scoring historically. However, recent form and defensive improvements by St Mirren suggest a lower tempo and fewer goals in this match, making Over 2.5 goals less likely despite historical averages.

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