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Motherwell crestMotherwell
v
Celtic crestCeltic

Premiership | Wed 13 May, 20:00

Motherwell v Celtic Stats

Data last updated: Sat 30 May 2026, 22:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Motherwell face Celtic in Premiership on Wed 13 May, 20:00. While Motherwell have struggled recently, they remain dangerous at Fir Park and boast the league's top scorer in Maswanhise. Celtic arrive on a five-match winning streak with massive momentum.

BT4Y match pick

Motherwell Win

  • At 9/4, Motherwell Win implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Celtic have shown a pattern of pulling away late in matches, while Motherwell's recent draw with Hearts demonstrated their ability to stay competitive under.
  • Celtic have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell.
  • Celtic have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Motherwell Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Motherwell sit 4 in the table, while Celtic sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Motherwell Win sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Celtic have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell. Celtic have shown a pattern of pulling away late in matches, while Motherwell's recent draw with Hearts demonstrated their ability to stay competitive under.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
Celtic have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points.Visible data support
Positive
Celtic have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Celtic have shown a pattern of pulling away late.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Motherwell Win is the preferred angle because celtic have shown a pattern of pulling away late in matches, while Motherwell's recent draw with Hearts demonstrated their ability to stay competitive under pressure. Celtic have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell. The issue has not necessarily been how they start games, but how they sustain them.

Main risk

The issue has not necessarily been how they start games, but how they sustain them.

Key Data Signals

Motherwell Win evidence

Celtic have shown a pattern of pulling away late in matches, while Motherwell's recent draw with Hearts demonstrated.

Celtic have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for Motherwell.

Celtic have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Motherwell Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Motherwell sit 4 in the table, while Celtic sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Motherwell Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Motherwell4.4
    Avg corners for
    Celtic6
    Motherwell9
    Avg total corners
    Celtic10.4
    Motherwell2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Celtic2.6
    Motherwell11.4
    Avg shots
    Celtic14.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.5 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Motherwell1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Celtic2.2
    Motherwell2
    Avg goals conceded
    Celtic0.8
    Motherwell80%
    BTTS rate
    Celtic80%
    Motherwell60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Celtic80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 22% · edge +4.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Motherwell to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Motherwell

    DLWLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    09 May 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-1
    02 May 2026A Falkirk0-1
    26 Apr 2026A Rangers3-2
    11 Apr 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-3
    04 Apr 2026H Falkirk2-3

    Celtic

    WWWWW
    Last 55W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 1D 2L
    10 May 2026H Rangers3-1
    03 May 2026A Hibernian2-1
    25 Apr 2026H Falkirk3-1
    11 Apr 2026H ST Mirren1-0
    05 Apr 2026A Dundee2-1
    Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 22% · edge +4.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Motherwell wins
    2Draws
    7Celtic wins
    14 Mar 2026Celtic v Motherwell3-1
    30 Dec 2025Motherwell v Celtic2-0
    05 Oct 2025Celtic v Motherwell3-2
    02 Feb 2025Motherwell v Celtic1-3
    26 Dec 2024Celtic v Motherwell4-0
    27 Oct 2024Motherwell v Celtic0-3
    Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 22% · edge +4.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Motherwell to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Motherwell38
    Played
    Celtic38
    Motherwell1.6
    Avg goals for
    Celtic1.9
    Motherwell0.9
    Avg goals against
    Celtic1.1
    Motherwell18
    Clean sheets
    Celtic13
    Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 22% · edge +4.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Season data supports Motherwell to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Celtic6733214824
    4Motherwell54331412723
    1Celtic8238264832
    4Motherwell61381613923
    Motherwell sit in position 4, while Celtic sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Motherwell Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Motherwell Over 2.5
    80%Celtic Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Motherwell sit at 60% and Celtic sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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