Moreirense

Maritimo

Primeira Liga | Mon 14 Sep, 20:15

Moreirense v Maritimo Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Moreirense and Maritimo meet in a Primeira Liga clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Moreirense have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match, while Maritimo have shown a more balanced approach but still concede 1.6 goals per game. Both teams have a high rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting their offensive tendencies and defensive lapses. Recent form data shows Moreirense scoring less but conceding heavily, whereas Maritimo have been more productive upfront, suggesting a fixture ripe for multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Moreirense concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
Maritimo averages 1.2 goals scored per match with 80% of their games going over 2.5 goals.
Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, highlighting attacking openness.
Recent matches show Moreirense scoring 0.8 goals but conceding heavily, while Maritimo balances attack and defense.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.1 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals highly at nearly 70% chance, supported by both teams' attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities. Moreirense's porous defense and Maritimo's consistent offensive output create conditions favoring multiple goals. Both sides have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match. The price offers clear value given the implied chance is significantly lower, making this a strong football and statistical case for Over 2.5 Goals.

Model Chance69.9%

Strong positive

Moreirense Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per match

Strong positive

Maritimo Offensive Rate1.2 goals scored per match

Positive

Over 2.5 Goals Rate Both Teams80% each

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance44.4%

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open encounter as Moreirense's defensive weaknesses meet Maritimo's attacking intent. The data supports a game with multiple goals given both teams' tendencies to concede and score. Over 2.5 Goals is a logical pick reflecting the tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

However, Maritimo's defensive figures provide Moreirense with a realistic opportunity to score once.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides with defensive vulnerabilities and attacking ambition, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection. The statistical signals align with the tactical setup for a goal-rich match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Moreirense concedes 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Maritimo averages 1.2 goals scored per match with 80% of their games going over 2.5 goals.

Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season, highlighting attacking openness.

Recent matches show Moreirense scoring 0.8 goals but conceding heavily, while Maritimo balances attack and defense.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games.
Both teams' recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate in their matches suggests a continuation of this trend, with attacking tempo and defensive gaps likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Moreirense

LLWLD

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 3L

09 Sep 2026H Benfica0-4

04 Sep 2026A FC Porto1-2

30 Aug 2026A Casa Pia1-0

16 Aug 2026A Arouca0-4

09 Aug 2026H SC Braga2-2

Maritimo

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Maritimo yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 74% · edge +6.9 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Moreirense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Recent form shows Moreirense scoring 0.8 goals per game but conceding 2.4, reflecting defensive struggles. Maritimo has been more balanced, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals per match. Both teams have maintained an 80% over 2.5 goals rate recently, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter based on current performance trends.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
10	Maritimo	7	5	2	1	2	-2
14	Moreirense	4	5	1	1	3	-8

Moreirense sits 14th with 4 points, while Maritimo is 10th with 7 points, indicating a mid-table clash with both sides seeking to improve their positions. The standings suggest neither team can afford a defensive collapse, but the pressure to attack and secure points may lead to an open, goal-filled match.

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Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictions full betting preview for Moreirense v Maritimo corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Moreirense0.8

Avg goals scored

Maritimo-

Moreirense2.4

Avg goals conceded

Maritimo-

Moreirense40%

BTTS rate

Maritimo-

Moreirense80%

Over 2.5 goals

Maritimo-

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

Check odds @ 4

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Both teams have shown a strong propensity for high-scoring games, with Moreirense and Maritimo each having an 80% rate of matches surpassing 2.5 goals. Maritimo's 60% BTTS rate combined with Moreirense's 40% indicates that goals are likely from both sides, driven by attacking play and defensive lapses.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Moreirense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%

Check odds @ 2

Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 3

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.25, reflecting a 44.4% implied chance, which is well below the model's 69.9% probability. This significant suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals, making this a positive value bet with standard stake guidance.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Moreirense wins

0Draws

0Maritimo wins

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Load more odds for this section

Moreirense to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

The last 10 meetings between Moreirense and Maritimo have averaged 2.1 goals per game, showing a pattern of moderately open contests. While not overwhelmingly high-scoring, this trend aligns with both teams' current attacking and defensive profiles, providing reasonable historical support for expecting multiple goals.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Moreirense2.25

Avg corners for

Maritimo-

Moreirense8

Avg total corners

Maritimo-

Moreirense3.25

Avg yellow cards

Maritimo-

Moreirense7

Avg shots

Maritimo-

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +3 pts

Check odds @ 2

The match is expected to feature moderate corner counts, with both teams averaging around 2.5 corners per game. Maritimo's higher shot volume (10.8 per game) compared to Moreirense (6.6) suggests they will exert more offensive pressure. Discipline-wise, Moreirense averages more yellow cards, indicating a potentially physical contest with fouls contributing to set-piece opportunities.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Moreirense5

Played

Maritimo5

Moreirense0.8

Avg goals for

Maritimo1.2

Moreirense2.4

Avg goals against

Maritimo1.6

Moreirense1

Clean sheets

Maritimo1

Best odds for this sectionMoreirense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 42% · edge +11.8 pts

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

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Moreirense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 30%

Check odds @ 3

Season-long data reveals Moreirense's defensive frailty with 2.4 goals conceded per match, while Maritimo's attack averages 1.2 goals per game. Both teams' high over 2.5 goals rates (80%) reflect open play styles and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals in this fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Moreirense Over 2.5

-Maritimo Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, indicating a history of moderately high-scoring games. Both teams' recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate in their matches suggests a continuation of this trend, with attacking tempo and defensive gaps likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Moreirense v Maritimo Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Moreirense

Maritimo

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Football Stats Hub

Moreirense v Maritimo Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Moreirense

Maritimo

Continue the research

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