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Monza crestMonza
v
Udinese crestUdinese

Serie A | Sat 29 Aug, 17:30

Monza v Udinese Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza returns home after a heavy 4-1 defeat at Inter Milan, aiming to leverage their strong scoring form at the U-Power Stadium where they won 15 of 21 home matches last season. Gustavo Varela's debut goal provides an attacking spark, complemented by Dany Mota's return from suspension. Udinese arrive unbeaten in four matches this season, boasting a solid away record with 27 points last term and eight road wins. Despite some absences, Udinese's consistent attack and Monza's defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a competitive encounter with goals likely at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Monza scored in their last match and have strong home scoring form.
  • Udinese scored in their last match and have a proven away scoring record.
  • Monza have conceded 4 goals in their last match, showing defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent matches, supporting BTTS.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting Monza's potent home attack and Udinese's consistent away scoring. Monza's defensive struggles, conceding four goals recently, combined with Udinese's ability to win and score on the road, create a strong case for goals at both ends. The price offers positive value with a 22.5% edge over the implied , making this a compelling selection. Data quality is solid, supporting in the prediction.

Monza home scoring formStrong, 15 wins last season
Strong positive
Udinese away scoring consistency27 points, 8 wins away last season
Strong positive
Monza recent defensive issuesConceded 4 goals last match
Positive
Both teams recent BTTS rate100% in last matches
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown strong scoring ability recently, with Monza's home attack led by Gustavo Varela and Udinese's reliable away goalscoring record. The tactical setup suggests open play and goal opportunities at both ends, making both teams to score a logical outcome supported by recent form and squad dynamics.

Main risk

The level has changed, but their survival prospects may depend heavily on whether that home advantage survives promotion.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Monza's attacking impetus at home combined with Udinese's proven road scoring creates a high-probability scenario for goals at both ends, despite defensive absences on both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Monza scored in their last match and have strong home scoring form.

Udinese scored in their last match and have a proven away scoring record.

Monza have conceded 4 goals in their last match, showing defensive frailty.

Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent matches, supporting BTTS.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last seven meetings, the average goals per game is 2.86, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • Recent matches show a mix of tight scorelines and open play, with both teams contributing goals.
  • This trend supports an Over 2.5 goals environment, consistent with the BTTS selection and the attacking profiles of both teams.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monza1
Avg goals scored
Udinese1
Monza4
Avg goals conceded
Udinese1
Monza100%
BTTS rate
Udinese100%
Monza100%
Over 2.5 goals
Udinese0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both Monza and Udinese have scored in all their recent matches, with Monza's home scoring and Udinese's away goalscoring consistency underpinning the BTTS selection. Monza's recent defensive lapses and Udinese's ability to create chances on the road suggest goals are likely at both ends, supporting the BTTS outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Udinese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Monza Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at about 1.87, implying a 53.5% chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating clear value. This positive reflects the strong attacking profiles and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides, making the market an attractive betting angle without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Monza3
Avg corners for
Udinese1
Monza6
Avg total corners
Udinese11
Monza2
Avg yellow cards
Udinese3
Monza7
Avg shots
Udinese17
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +10.6 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Monza averages 3 corners and 7 shots per match, while Udinese averages 1 corner but a higher 17 shots per match, indicating Udinese's offensive pressure. Both teams show moderate card counts, with Udinese averaging 3 yellows and Monza 2, reflecting a competitive but disciplined contest likely to feature sustained attacking phases and set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monza

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026A Inter1-4

Udinese

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
22 Aug 2026H Como1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Udinese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Monza Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Monza's recent form shows a heavy 4-1 defeat but continued scoring ability, while Udinese remain unbeaten in four matches with consistent away scoring. Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent matches, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends and supporting the BTTS selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Monza wins
3Draws
2Udinese wins
11 May 2025Udinese v Monza1-2
09 Dec 2024Monza v Udinese1-2
03 Feb 2024Udinese v Monza0-0
29 Oct 2023Monza v Udinese1-1
08 Apr 2023Udinese v Monza2-2
19 Oct 2022Udinese v Monza2-3
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The head-to-head record shows seven matches with an average of 2.86 goals per game, indicating a relatively open scoring pattern. Udinese have lost only once in the last five league meetings, suggesting a competitive balance. This history supports the expectation of goals from both sides but also hints at a closely contested match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Monza2
Played
Udinese1
Monza1.5
Avg goals for
Udinese1
Monza3.5
Avg goals against
Udinese1
Monza0
Clean sheets
Udinese0
Best odds for this sectionUdinese Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Udinese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Monza Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Monza's season stats reveal strong home scoring but defensive frailties, with only one clean sheet in five matches. Udinese's away record is robust, with 27 points and eight wins last season, underscoring their scoring consistency. These season-long patterns align with the BTTS market, reflecting attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Udinese421101
18Monza02002-4
Monza sits 18th with no points, reflecting early season struggles and defensive issues. Udinese are 11th with one point, showing steadier form. While standings provide some context, the tactical and form factors weigh more heavily in predicting goals and BTTS outcomes in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Monza Over 2.5
0%Udinese Over 2.5
2.86H2H avg goals
Over the last seven meetings, the average goals per game is 2.86, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Recent matches show a mix of tight scorelines and open play, with both teams contributing goals. This trend supports an Over 2.5 goals environment, consistent with the BTTS selection and the attacking profiles of both teams.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Monza v Udinese prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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