Football Stats Hub

Monza crestMonza
v
Avellino crestAvellino

Coppa Italia | Fri 14 Aug, 19:45

Monza v Avellino Stats

Data last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026, 06:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monza opens their Coppa Italia campaign at home against Avellino, bringing momentum from promotion to Serie A and a strong attacking profile. Monza's recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, averaging over three goals per game, with a potent offense generating 14 shots per match, many from inside the box. Avellino, under new management and coming off a solid Serie B playoff finish, rely on efficient shooting and key players like Luca Di Maggio, who has scored against top-flight teams in pre-season. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides and tactical intrigue with former Monza boss Alessandro Nesta managing Avellino set the stage for an open, competitive tie.

BT4Y match pick

Monza to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Monza averages 14 shots per game with 52% inside the penalty area, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
  • Avellino converts 60% of their 9.6 shots per game from inside the box, showing efficient finishing.
  • Monza conceded 10 goals in six games, highlighting defensive fragility that Avellino can exploit.
  • Avellino lost four of their last six away matches, suggesting vulnerability on the road.
  • Monza won the last meeting 2-1 despite Avellino scoring first, showing both teams can find the net.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 20.4% chance for Monza to win with both teams scoring, reflecting Monza's high shot volume and Avellino's efficient attack. However, the current market price implies a 26.7% chance, making this a price-sensitive selection rather than a clear value bet. the football read remains strong due to Monza's offensive firepower and Avellino's ability to score despite away struggles. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advised until line-ups and team news confirm attacking intent and defensive stability.

Model Chance20.4%
Positive
Market Implied Chance26.7%
Negative
Shot Volume (Monza)14 per game
Strong positive
Shot Efficiency (Avellino)60% inside box
Positive
Defensive Vulnerability (Monza)10 goals conceded in 6 games
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Monza's attacking control and home advantage make them favorites to win, while Avellino's efficient finishing and recent goal-scoring form suggest they will find the net. This combination sets up a competitive match with goals at both ends, aligning with the pick for Monza to win and both teams to score.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and attacking dynamics

“Monza's relentless shot creation inside the box will challenge Avellino's defense, which has shown vulnerability away from home. Expect an open game where both sides capitalize on chances, making the BTTS and home win combination a compelling tactical outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Monza to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Monza averages 14 shots per game with 52% inside the penalty area, indicating sustained attacking pressure.

Avellino converts 60% of their 9.6 shots per game from inside the box, showing efficient finishing.

Monza conceded 10 goals in six games, highlighting defensive fragility that Avellino can exploit.

Avellino lost four of their last six away matches, suggesting vulnerability on the road.

What To Watch In The Data

Monza to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last two meetings between these teams averaged three goals per game, consistent with recent high-scoring trends for Monza.
  • This supports an Over 2.5 goals scenario, driven by Monza's attacking volume and Avellino's ability to score despite defensive challenges, indicating a lively tempo and open play.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Monza wins
0Draws
1Avellino wins
08 Feb 2026Monza v Avellino2-1
12 Sep 2025Avellino v Monza2-1
Market aligned with main pickMonza to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 62% · edge -18.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The limited head-to-head sample shows Monza winning the last encounter 2-1 with both teams scoring, reflecting a pattern of competitive matches with goals at both ends. While the sample is small, it aligns with current form and tactical setups, reinforcing the BTTS and home win selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monza

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Monza yet.

Avellino

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Avellino yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 88% · edge -14.7 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Monza Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Monza's recent matches have been high-scoring with a strong offensive output but defensive vulnerabilities, while Avellino's away form has been mixed with several losses but consistent goal-scoring efficiency. This contrast suggests a dynamic match where Monza's attack meets Avellino's opportunistic offense, fitting the combined win and BTTS selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monza-
Avg goals scored
Avellino-
Monza-
Avg goals conceded
Avellino-
Monza-
BTTS rate
Avellino-
Monza-
Over 2.5 goals
Avellino-
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +3.5 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Both teams have shown the ability to score recently, with Monza averaging over three goals per game and Avellino converting a high percentage of shots inside the box. Defensive lapses on both sides increase the likelihood of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS aspect of the pick.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMonza Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 76% · edge -22.3 pts
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The market price for Monza to win and both teams to score is shorter than the model's probability, indicating a price-sensitive scenario. While the football context supports the pick, the current suggest caution and recommend reduced stakes or waiting for better pricing influenced by team news or line-up confirmations.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Monza1
Played
Avellino0
Monza3
Avg goals for
Avellino0
Monza0
Avg goals against
Avellino0
Monza1
Clean sheets
Avellino0
Market aligned with main pickMonza Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 76% · edge -22.3 pts
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Load more odds for this section
Monza to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Monza's season stats reveal a high volume of shots and goals scored, reflecting an aggressive attacking style, while conceding multiple goals highlights defensive concerns. Avellino's stats show fewer shots but a higher proportion inside the box, indicating a focus on quality chances. These profiles support a match with goals from both sides and a Monza victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Monza Over 2.5
-Avellino Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last two meetings between these teams averaged three goals per game, consistent with recent high-scoring trends for Monza. This supports an Over 2.5 goals scenario, driven by Monza's attacking volume and Avellino's ability to score despite defensive challenges, indicating a lively tempo and open play.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Monza v Avellino prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Parma v CataniaCoppa Italia · Fri 14 Aug 17:00Cagliari v ArezzoCoppa Italia · Fri 14 Aug 17:30Fiorentina v BeneventoCoppa Italia · Fri 14 Aug 20:15Catanzaro v SudtirolCoppa Italia · Sat 15 Aug 17:00

Competition and hubs

Monza v Avellino predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets research

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre