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Mjallby AIF crestMjallby AIF
v
Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

Allsvenskan | Sat 10 Oct, 16:30

Mjallby AIF v Degerfors IF Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan clash between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF features two teams struggling for points and goals late in the season. Mjallby AIF ranks 12th with 22 points, while Degerfors IF sits 14th with 19 points, both aiming to avoid relegation. Recent matches show low scoring outputs and defensive caution, with Mjallby conceding over two goals per game and Degerfors allowing 1.4. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from both sides, prioritizing defensive solidity over attacking risk, making a low-scoring encounter likely at this stage.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Mjallby AIF concedes 2.2 goals per game, Degerfors 1.4, indicating defensive struggles but low scoring.
  • Both teams have low goals-for averages: 0.6 for Mjallby, 0.4 for Degerfors in recent form.
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 40% of Mjallby’s games and 0% for Degerfors recently.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over last 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring trend.
  • Shots on target per game are moderate but not prolific, with Mjallby at 4.6 and Degerfors at 3.4, suggesting limited clear-cut chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the low scoring trends and defensive caution shown by both teams. Recent form data reveals Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF have struggled offensively, averaging less than one goal per game combined. The zero over 2.5 rate for Degerfors and only 40% for Mjallby reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring match. The at 1.85 offer positive value given the model's higher chance estimate. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredMjallby 0.6, Degerfors 0.4 per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Rate40% Mjallby, 0% Degerfors
Strong positive
Shots on TargetModerate but not high (4.6 and 3.4)
Positive
Implied Odds Chance66% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a cautious, low-scoring game as both Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF prioritize defensive stability to avoid defeat. The recent low goal outputs and tactical conservatism suggest Under 2.5 Goals is the most logical outcome. Data supports this with both teams showing limited offensive threat and a history of tight matches.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and scoring

“This fixture is shaped by defensive caution and limited attacking potency, making a low-scoring outcome the most plausible scenario. Both sides have struggled to create clear chances, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick as a sound tactical and statistical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Mjallby AIF concedes 2.2 goals per game, Degerfors 1.4, indicating defensive struggles but low scoring.

Both teams have low goals-for averages: 0.6 for Mjallby, 0.4 for Degerfors in recent form.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over last 10 matches, supporting a moderate scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring history.
  • However, recent form and tactical trends suggest a slowing tempo and defensive caution, reducing the likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals in this fixture.
  • The trend panel highlights a shift towards tighter matches with fewer goal-scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mjallby AIF0.6
Avg goals scored
Degerfors IF0.4
Mjallby AIF2.2
Avg goals conceded
Degerfors IF1.4
Mjallby AIF60%
BTTS rate
Degerfors IF0%
Mjallby AIF40%
Over 2.5 goals
Degerfors IF0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Goal trends show both teams have struggled offensively, with Mjallby scoring 0.6 and Degerfors 0.4 goals per game recently. Degerfors has a 0% BTTS rate, indicating frequent clean sheets or scoreless matches, while Mjallby’s 60% BTTS rate suggests occasional goals but not high-scoring affairs. The combined data supports a low total goals scenario with limited both teams to score occurrences.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDegerfors IF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Mjallby AIF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+11.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Mjallby AIF and 0% for Degerfors IF, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mjallby AIF

LDDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
20 Sep 2026H Gais0-3
16 Sep 2026A AIK Stockholm1-1
11 Sep 2026A BK Hacken1-1
07 Sep 2026H IFK Goteborg1-4
03 Sep 2026H Djurgardens IF0-2

Degerfors IF

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
20 Sep 2026H Hammarby FF0-1
14 Sep 2026A Sirius0-2
05 Sep 2026H Halmstad2-0
29 Aug 2026A IF Elfsborg0-2
23 Aug 2026A IF Brommapojkarna0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Degerfors IF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Degerfors IF to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Mjallby AIF Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Mjallby AIF to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data reveals Mjallby AIF has earned only 2 points with 0.6 goals scored per game and a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Degerfors IF has 3 points with 0.4 goals scored and no recent over 2.5 games. Defensive vulnerabilities exist but have not translated into high scoring, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals trend in their latest performances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Mjallby AIF Over 2.5
0%Degerfors IF Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring history. However, recent form and tactical trends suggest a slowing tempo and defensive caution, reducing the likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals in this fixture. The trend panel highlights a shift towards tighter matches with fewer goal-scoring chances.

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