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Mirassol crestMirassol
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 22:30

Mirassol v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Tue 22 Sep 2026, 00:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol face Palmeiras in Serie A on Sun 30 Aug, 22:30. Palmeiras have won seven of their 12 away league matches, with only two defeats, giving them the strongest road record in Serie A.

BT4Y best bet

SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score

  • At 16/5, SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score implies roughly 24%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 32%.
  • Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Leaders’ Away Strength Tests a Defence Under Strain.
  • Palmeiras need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Mirassol on 5 and Palmeiras on 7.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 100% for Mirassol and 60% for Palmeiras.
  • SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Mirassol and 2.2 for Palmeiras are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 32% for SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score sits against roughly 24% implied by the current price. Palmeiras need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Mirassol on 5 and Palmeiras on 7. Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Leaders’ Away Strength Tests a Defence Under Strain.

Model chance vs price32% model chance against roughly 24% implied
Positive
Palmeiras need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Leaders’ Away Strength Tests a Defence.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Palmeiras Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because mirassol vs Palmeiras: Leaders’ Away Strength Tests a Defence Under Strain. Palmeiras need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Mirassol on 5 and Palmeiras on 7. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score evidence

Mirassol vs Palmeiras: Leaders’ Away Strength Tests a Defence Under Strain.

Palmeiras need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Mirassol on 5 and Palmeiras on 7.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 100% for Mirassol and 60% for Palmeiras.

Palmeiras Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.2 for Mirassol and 2.2 for Palmeiras are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol3.6
Avg corners for
Palmeiras5.2
Mirassol9.4
Avg total corners
Palmeiras9.4
Mirassol2.2
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras1.4
Mirassol10.4
Avg shots
Palmeiras17.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.2
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras2.2
Mirassol2.2
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras1.2
Mirassol100%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Mirassol60%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Palmeiras to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
23 Aug 2026A Santos1-1
16 Aug 2026H Flamengo1-5
09 Aug 2026A Cruzeiro1-3
29 Jul 2026H Remo2-1
26 Jul 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-1

Palmeiras

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
23 Aug 2026H Vasco DA Gama4-1
15 Aug 2026A Fluminense2-3
09 Aug 2026H Internacional0-0
30 Jul 2026A Vitoria4-0
26 Jul 2026H Atletico-MG1-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 84% vs implied 78% · edge +5.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
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Palmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Mirassol wins
1Draws
6Palmeiras wins
15 Mar 2026Palmeiras v Mirassol1-0
17 Jan 2026Palmeiras v Mirassol1-0
09 Nov 2025Mirassol v Palmeiras2-1
16 Jul 2025Palmeiras v Mirassol1-1
23 Feb 2025Mirassol v Palmeiras2-3
24 Feb 2024Palmeiras v Mirassol3-1
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample gives context for Palmeiras to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Serie A

Mirassol28
Played
Palmeiras28
Mirassol1.2
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.7
Mirassol1.5
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.8
Mirassol2
Clean sheets
Palmeiras12
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 49% · edge +13.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Season data supports Palmeiras to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Palmeiras5728169326
15Mirassol32288812-9
Mirassol sit in position 15, while Palmeiras sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the SE Palmeiras to Win and Both Teams To Score assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Mirassol Over 2.5
80%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.78H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Mirassol sit at 60% and Palmeiras sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.78 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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