Football Stats Hub

Mirassol crestMirassol
v
LDU de Quito crestLDU de Quito

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 13 Aug, 23:00

Mirassol v LDU de Quito Stats

Data last updated: Wed 12 Aug 2026, 08:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mirassol and LDU de Quito meet in a CONMEBOL Libertadores clash where both teams have shown disciplined defensive structures and cautious attacking intent. Mirassol ranks second in the group with 12 points, just behind LDU de Quito who lead with the same tally. Both sides have averaged just over one goal per game scored and conceded fewer than one goal on average, reflecting a tactical battle likely to limit scoring opportunities. The stakes are high as both teams aim to consolidate their positions, suggesting a measured tempo and tactical caution in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average only 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored per game respectively, indicating limited scoring.
  • Mirassol and LDU de Quito have low BTTS rates of 20%, suggesting tight defenses.
  • Both teams have a 20% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Recent form shows both teams earned 9 points in their last five matches, reflecting stable but not high-scoring performances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, supported by both teams' low scoring and conceding averages around one goal per match. Their recent form and low BTTS rates reinforce the likelihood of a tactical, low-scoring game. The of 1.62 offer a small positive , reflecting a sensible price for a match expected to be tightly contested with limited goal-scoring chances. No data limitations affect in this projection.

Model Chance66%
Strong positive
Implied Chance61.7%
Positive
Value Edge4.3%
Positive
Recent Goals DataLow goals scored and conceded per game
Strong positive
BTTS Rate20% for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical selection given both Mirassol and LDU de Quito's defensive solidity and modest attacking output. The teams' recent matches show a pattern of cautious play and low scoring, which aligns with the expectation of a tight, tactical Libertadores fixture. This bet reflects the balance between the teams' quality and the high stakes involved, where neither side is likely to take excessive risks.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and scoring balance

“This fixture is poised for a tactical chess match with both sides prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle based on recent form and scoring trends.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average only 1.2 and 1.4 goals scored per game respectively, indicating limited scoring.

Mirassol and LDU de Quito have low BTTS rates of 20%, suggesting tight defenses.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the two previous meetings between these teams, the average goals scored was 2, supporting a trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This recent head-to-head sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup conducive to Under 2.5 Goals, with both sides likely to focus on defensive organization and limiting clear chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mirassol1.2
Avg goals scored
LDU de Quito1.4
Mirassol0.8
Avg goals conceded
LDU de Quito1
Mirassol20%
BTTS rate
LDU de Quito20%
Mirassol20%
Over 2.5 goals
LDU de Quito20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 63% · edge +3.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both Mirassol and LDU de Quito have low BTTS rates of 20%, indicating that matches often end with one or no team scoring. Their average goals per game are also low, reinforcing the expectation of a tight game with limited goal-scoring opportunities and a strong defensive emphasis from both sides.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mirassol

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 2L
26 May 2026A Lanus0-1
20 May 2026A Always Ready2-1
07 May 2026H LDU de Quito2-0
29 Apr 2026H Always Ready2-0
15 Apr 2026A LDU de Quito0-2

LDU de Quito

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 2L
26 May 2026H Always Ready3-2
21 May 2026H Lanus2-0
07 May 2026A Mirassol0-2
28 Apr 2026A Lanus0-1
15 Apr 2026H Mirassol2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
LDU de Quito Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Mirassol to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Both teams have collected 9 points in their last five matches, reflecting consistent but not high-scoring performances. Their low over 2.5 goals rate of 20% in recent games supports the expectation of a match with limited goal-scoring, as both sides have maintained solid defensive records while struggling to convert chances into multiple goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1LDU de Quito1264023
2Mirassol1264023
Mirassol and LDU de Quito occupy the top two positions in the group with 12 points each, indicating a tight competition where both teams may prioritize avoiding defeat over risky attacking play. This competitive balance suggests a cautious approach that typically results in fewer goals scored.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLDU de Quito Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Mirassol to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.62, reflecting a modest with the model's 66% probability exceeding the implied 61.7%. This suggests the market fairly values the likelihood of a low-scoring game, with the price sensitive but reasonable given the defensive profiles and recent scoring trends of both teams.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Mirassol4
Avg corners for
LDU de Quito3.4
Mirassol8.6
Avg total corners
LDU de Quito8.8
Mirassol2.4
Avg yellow cards
LDU de Quito2.4
Mirassol9.8
Avg shots
LDU de Quito13.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 62% · edge +0.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Mirassol averages 4 corners per game while LDU de Quito averages 3.4, indicating moderate attacking pressure but not overwhelming control. Both teams average 2.4 yellow cards per match, suggesting a balanced fouling profile without excessive aggression. Shot data shows LDU de Quito takes more shots overall but with similar shots on target, reflecting measured attacking intent and defensive resilience.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Mirassol wins
0Draws
1LDU de Quito wins
07 May 2026Mirassol v LDU de Quito2-0
15 Apr 2026LDU de Quito v Mirassol2-0
Best odds for this sectionLDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Mirassol to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample is limited to two matches, which showed an average of 2 goals per game. This small sample supports the low-scoring expectation but should be considered alongside current form and tactical context, which also favor a cautious, defensively disciplined game.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Mirassol6
Played
LDU de Quito6
Mirassol1.2
Avg goals for
LDU de Quito1.3
Mirassol0.7
Avg goals against
LDU de Quito0.8
Mirassol3
Clean sheets
LDU de Quito3
Best odds for this sectionLDU de Quito Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
LDU de Quito to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Mirassol to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Mirassol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Season-long data shows Mirassol and LDU de Quito scoring around 1.2 and 1.4 goals per game respectively, while conceding fewer than one goal on average. These figures underline a defensive solidity and moderate attacking output that align with a low-scoring game scenario, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mirassol Over 2.5
20%LDU de Quito Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the two previous meetings between these teams, the average goals scored was 2, supporting a trend towards low-scoring encounters. This recent head-to-head sample suggests a tempo and tactical setup conducive to Under 2.5 Goals, with both sides likely to focus on defensive organization and limiting clear chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Rosario Central v CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores · Fri 14 Aug 01:30

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictions

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre