Football Stats Hub

Minnesota United FC crestMinnesota United FC
v
Houston Dynamo crestHouston Dynamo

Major League Soccer | Sun 11 Oct, 01:30

Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features Minnesota United FC hosting Houston Dynamo in a fixture where Houston holds a significant advantage in the standings and recent form. Houston sits comfortably in 5th place with 44 points, while Minnesota struggles near the bottom at 14th with 29 points. Houston's defensive solidity and ability to grind out results contrast with Minnesota's leaky defense and recent poor results. The match carries importance for Houston to consolidate playoff positioning, while Minnesota aims to arrest a slide. Tactical discipline and defensive organization will be key factors in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Houston Dynamo to Win

  • Houston Dynamo ranks 5th with 44 points, Minnesota 14th with 29 points.
  • Houston concedes only 1.2 goals per game compared to Minnesota's 3.4.
  • Minnesota has scored 2 goals in last matches, Houston averages 0.8 goals per game.
  • Houston's recent form shows 5 points gained; Minnesota has 0 points in recent outings.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over last 10 matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Houston Dynamo to win with a 64% chance, reflecting their stronger defensive record and better recent form compared to Minnesota United FC. Houston's ability to limit goals conceded (1.2 per game) contrasts sharply with Minnesota's porous defense (3.4 per game). Despite Minnesota's higher shot volume, Houston's efficiency and tactical discipline underpin the model's . The at 3.5 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 28.6%. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value selection based on form and defensive metrics.

Model Win Probability64%
Strong positive
Minnesota Defensive Weakness3.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Houston Defensive Strength1.2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsHouston 5, Minnesota 0
Positive
Odds Value Edge43.6% model chance vs 28.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Houston Dynamo's superior defensive record and recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory in this MLS fixture. Minnesota's defensive frailties and lack of points recently contrast with Houston's tactical discipline and ability to control games. Houston's resilience and efficiency should see them edge this contest.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Houston Dynamo's defensive solidity and recent momentum position them well to capitalize on Minnesota's defensive vulnerabilities. Their ability to absorb pressure and counter effectively is a key tactical advantage in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Houston Dynamo to Win evidence

Houston Dynamo ranks 5th with 44 points, Minnesota 14th with 29 points.

Houston concedes only 1.2 goals per game compared to Minnesota's 3.4.

Minnesota has scored 2 goals in last matches, Houston averages 0.8 goals per game.

Houston's recent form shows 5 points gained; Minnesota has 0 points in recent outings.

What To Watch In The Data

Houston Dynamo to Win notes

  • Analysis of the last 10 meetings shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, suggesting moderately open encounters.
  • Minnesota's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with Houston's 40%, indicating Minnesota's games tend to be higher scoring.
  • This trend suggests potential for goals but with Houston likely to keep the match tighter due to defensive discipline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Minnesota United FC2
Avg goals scored
Houston Dynamo0.8
Minnesota United FC3.4
Avg goals conceded
Houston Dynamo1.2
Minnesota United FC100%
BTTS rate
Houston Dynamo40%
Minnesota United FC100%
Over 2.5 goals
Houston Dynamo40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent data shows Minnesota United FC has a 100% rate of matches with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, reflecting their defensive vulnerabilities and open play style. Houston Dynamo, however, has a more conservative profile with only 40% BTTS and over 2.5 rates, indicating tighter defensive control. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately open game but with Houston likely to keep the scoreline controlled.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 43.6% for Houston Dynamo to Win sits against roughly 28.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Houston Dynamo have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Minnesota United FC.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Major League Soccer analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Minnesota United FC

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
27 Sep 2026A Seattle Sounders1-3
20 Sep 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy2-3
13 Sep 2026A St. Louis City2-4
10 Sep 2026H FC Dallas1-2
06 Sep 2026A Portland Timbers4-5

Houston Dynamo

LDLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
27 Sep 2026H Sporting Kansas City0-2
20 Sep 2026H FC Cincinnati2-2
13 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes0-1
10 Sep 2026H Real Salt Lake2-1
06 Sep 2026A Charlotte0-0
Market aligned with main pickHouston Dynamo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Houston Dynamo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Houston Dynamo's recent form shows 5 points gained with a strong defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per game, while Minnesota United FC has failed to gain points recently and concedes 3.4 goals per game. Minnesota's inability to secure points and defensive frailty contrasts with Houston's momentum and tactical organization, reinforcing Houston's chances to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Minnesota United FC Over 2.5
40%Houston Dynamo Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last 10 meetings shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, suggesting moderately open encounters. Minnesota's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches contrasts with Houston's 40%, indicating Minnesota's games tend to be higher scoring. This trend suggests potential for goals but with Houston likely to keep the match tighter due to defensive discipline.

Loading deeper match data…