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Mexico crestMexico
v
Peru crestPeru

Friendlies | Wed 30 Sep, 02:00

Mexico v Peru Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 08:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico and Peru meet in an international friendly where both sides look to fine-tune their attacking and defensive setups ahead of upcoming competitive fixtures. Mexico has shown a more solid defensive record recently, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, while Peru has struggled defensively, allowing 2.4 goals per match. Offensively, Peru's higher over 2.5 goals rate and Mexico's steady attacking output suggest an open game with chances at both ends. The match offers a tactical battle between Mexico's structured defense and Peru's more aggressive forward play, setting the stage for goals from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Mexico concedes only 0.6 goals per game but scores regularly, with a 60% BTTS rate.
  • Peru concedes 2.4 goals per game and has an 80% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Mexico averages 14.4 shots per game with 5 on target, showing offensive threat.
  • Peru's attacking duo J. Lapadula have strong goal threat and shot accuracy.
  • Recent form shows Mexico with 11 points and Peru with 4, but both teams tend to concede and score in friendlies.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% chance, reflecting the attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities of both Mexico and Peru. Mexico's solid offense combined with Peru's higher goals conceded and BTTS rate supports this pick. The price offers positive value with a 28.4% edge over the implied chance. Player-level data highlights key attackers like J. Lapadula for Peru and A. Gutiérrez for Mexico, all contributing to goal opportunities. The friendly context encourages open play, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Model BTTS Chance76%
Strong positive
Mexico Defensive Record0.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Peru Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
BTTS RatesMexico 60%, Peru 80%
Strong positive
Player Goal ThreatMultiple attackers with high shots and goals on target
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a tendency to both score and concede in recent matches, especially in friendlies where defensive rigidity is less emphasized. Mexico's balanced attack and Peru's attacking talents like J. Vélez and Lapadula suggest goals at both ends. This BTTS pick aligns with tactical openness and recent scoring trends, making it a sensible choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“The attacking profiles of both Mexico and Peru, combined with their defensive lapses, make Both Teams to Score a compelling angle. The presence of key goal threats on each side ensures offensive chances, while the friendly nature encourages open play.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Mexico concedes only 0.6 goals per game but scores regularly, with a 60% BTTS rate.

Peru concedes 2.4 goals per game and has an 80% BTTS rate, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Mexico averages 14.4 shots per game with 5 on target, showing offensive threat.

Peru's attacking duo J. Lapadula have strong goal threat and shot accuracy.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Recent trends over the last five matches show Peru's games often exceed 2.5 goals (80% rate), while Mexico's matches less frequently do (20%).
  • The combined attacking intent and defensive gaps suggest a match with multiple goals and a high chance of both teams scoring, driven by Peru's offensive openness and Mexico's consistent shot volume.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mexico2
Avg goals scored
Peru1.2
Mexico0.6
Avg goals conceded
Peru2.4
Mexico60%
BTTS rate
Peru80%
Mexico20%
Over 2.5 goals
Peru80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both Mexico and Peru have contrasting defensive records but share a tendency to concede and score. Mexico's 60% BTTS rate and Peru's 80% rate indicate frequent goal exchanges. Peru's higher over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests open games, while Mexico's more controlled scoring pattern balances the outlook, supporting a BTTS scenario with moderate total goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Mexico to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Peru Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Mexico Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Peru to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 62.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Mexico show a 60% BTTS rate and Peru show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mexico

DWWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 0L
27 Sep 2026H Colombia1-1
05 Jun 2026H Serbia5-1
31 May 2026H Australia1-0
23 May 2026H Ghana2-0
01 Apr 2026H Belgium1-1

Peru

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
26 Sep 2026A USA1-4
09 Jun 2026H Spain1-3
06 Jun 2026A Haiti2-1
31 Mar 2026H Honduras2-2
28 Mar 2026A Senegal0-2
Best odds for this sectionMexico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Peru Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Mexico Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Peru to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Mexico's recent form shows 11 points with a solid defensive record, while Peru has 4 points and a leaky defense. Both teams have shown a propensity to concede and score in friendlies, aligning with the BTTS pick. Mexico's tighter defense contrasts with Peru's more open style, suggesting a match where both sides find the net but with differing defensive solidity.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mexico Over 2.5
80%Peru Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Recent trends over the last five matches show Peru's games often exceed 2.5 goals (80% rate), while Mexico's matches less frequently do (20%). The combined attacking intent and defensive gaps suggest a match with multiple goals and a high chance of both teams scoring, driven by Peru's offensive openness and Mexico's consistent shot volume.

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