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Manchester United crestManchester United
v
Manchester City crestManchester City

Premier League | Sun 13 Sep, 16:30

Manchester United v Manchester City Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Manchester United face Manchester City in Premier League on Sun 13 Sep, 16:30. Derby Drought at Home: Manchester United have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League home games against Manchester City, including the last two in a row, adding pressure on a fresh interim setup.

BT4Y match pick

Manchester United Win

  • At 3.25, Manchester United Win implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Defensive Solidity: Goals Conceded
  • Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Manchester United.
  • Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Manchester United sit 11 in the table, while Manchester City sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Manchester United Win sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Manchester United. Defensive Solidity: Goals Conceded

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Solidity: Goals ConcededArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester United Win is the preferred angle because defensive Solidity: Goals Conceded Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Manchester United. The mood around Old Trafford is restless but hopeful.

Main risk

The mood around Old Trafford is restless but hopeful.

Key Data Signals

Manchester United Win evidence

Defensive Solidity: Goals Conceded

Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Manchester United.

Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Manchester United sit 11 in the table, while Manchester City sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Manchester United Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Manchester United2.33
    Avg goals scored
    Manchester City2.33
    Manchester United2
    Avg goals conceded
    Manchester City0.67
    Manchester United67%
    BTTS rate
    Manchester City67%
    Manchester United67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Manchester City67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 67% for Manchester United and 67% for Manchester City, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -3.8 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Manchester United to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Manchester United5.67
    Avg corners for
    Manchester City6
    Manchester United8.67
    Avg total corners
    Manchester City9.33
    Manchester United1.67
    Avg yellow cards
    Manchester City1.33
    Manchester United22.67
    Avg shots
    Manchester City15.33
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Manchester United

    DWL
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    06 Sep 2026A Everton2-2
    30 Aug 2026H Ipswich5-2
    22 Aug 2026A Hull City0-2

    Manchester City

    WWW
    Last 53W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 0L
    05 Sep 2026H Coventry1-0
    28 Aug 2026A Crystal Palace4-1
    23 Aug 2026H Bournemouth2-1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -3.8 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 48%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Manchester United wins
    2Draws
    4Manchester City wins
    17 Jan 2026Manchester United v Manchester City2-0
    14 Sep 2025Manchester City v Manchester United3-0
    06 Apr 2025Manchester United v Manchester City0-0
    15 Dec 2024Manchester City v Manchester United1-2
    10 Aug 2024Manchester City v Manchester United1-1
    25 May 2024Manchester City v Manchester United1-2
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -3.8 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Manchester United to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Manchester United3
    Played
    Manchester City3
    Manchester United2.3
    Avg goals for
    Manchester City2.3
    Manchester United2
    Avg goals against
    Manchester City0.7
    Manchester United0
    Clean sheets
    Manchester City1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 31% · edge -3.8 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Season data supports Manchester United to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Manchester City933005
    11Manchester United431111
    Manchester United sit in position 11, while Manchester City sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Manchester United Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    67%Manchester United Over 2.5
    67%Manchester City Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Manchester United sit at 67% and Manchester City sit at 67% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Manchester United v Manchester City prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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