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Liverpool crestLiverpool

Premier League | Sun 03 May, 15:30

Manchester United v Liverpool Stats

Data last updated: Tue 16 Jun 2026, 12:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Manchester United face Liverpool in Premier League on Sun 03 May, 15:30. United have conceded exactly once in five of their last seven matches, while Liverpool have scored in their last six away league games. Given United's 23-game scoring streak, they are strong favourites to execute here.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Manchester United Win

  • At 11/10, Manchester United Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Manchester United have won six of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Manchester United sit 3 in the table, while Liverpool sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Manchester United Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 42% (-5.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +36 pts edge at 2.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 42% for Manchester United Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Manchester United have won six of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Negative
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester United sit 3 in the table, while Liverpool sit.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester United have won six of their last seven.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester United Win is the preferred angle because manchester United have won six of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford. Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge. They may not always dominate, but they almost always deliver.

Main risk

They may not always dominate, but they almost always deliver.

Key Data Signals

Manchester United Win evidence

Manchester United have won six of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester United Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Manchester United sit 3 in the table, while Liverpool sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Manchester United Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Manchester United6.6
    Avg corners for
    Liverpool5.6
    Manchester United12.8
    Avg total corners
    Liverpool10.8
    Manchester United2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Liverpool1.2
    Manchester United13
    Avg shots
    Liverpool14
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 52% · edge +3.6 pts
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Premier League analysisManchester United v Liverpool predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Manchester United1.8
    Avg goals scored
    Liverpool1.8
    Manchester United1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Liverpool1
    Manchester United80%
    BTTS rate
    Liverpool80%
    Manchester United80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Liverpool60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 40% · edge +36 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -1.5 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Manchester United to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Manchester United

    WWLDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    27 Apr 2026H Brentford2-1
    18 Apr 2026A Chelsea1-0
    13 Apr 2026H Leeds1-2
    20 Mar 2026A Bournemouth2-2
    15 Mar 2026H Aston Villa3-1

    Liverpool

    WWWLD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    25 Apr 2026H Crystal Palace3-1
    19 Apr 2026A Everton2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Fulham2-0
    21 Mar 2026A Brighton1-2
    15 Mar 2026H Tottenham1-1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -1.5 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Manchester United wins
    3Draws
    3Liverpool wins
    19 Oct 2025Liverpool v Manchester United1-2
    05 Jan 2025Liverpool v Manchester United2-2
    01 Sep 2024Manchester United v Liverpool0-3
    04 Aug 2024Manchester United v Liverpool0-3
    07 Apr 2024Manchester United v Liverpool2-2
    17 Mar 2024Manchester United v Liverpool4-3
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -1.5 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Manchester United to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Manchester United38
    Played
    Liverpool38
    Manchester United1.8
    Avg goals for
    Liverpool1.7
    Manchester United1.3
    Avg goals against
    Liverpool1.4
    Manchester United8
    Clean sheets
    Liverpool10
    Market aligned with main pickManchester United to WinBetUK guide price · Model 42% vs implied 44% · edge -1.5 pts
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester United Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Manchester United to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    3Manchester United71382011719
    5Liverpool60381791210
    Manchester United sit in position 3, while Liverpool sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Manchester United Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Manchester United Over 2.5
    60%Liverpool Over 2.5
    3.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Manchester United sit at 80% and Liverpool sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Manchester United v Liverpool prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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