Football Stats Hub

Manchester City crestManchester City
v
Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Premier League | Sun 24 May, 16:00

Manchester City v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 07:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Manchester City face Aston Villa in Premier League on Sun 24 May, 16:00. However, their struggles on the road—registering just one win in nine away league outings—suggest City’s supreme home infrastructure will eventually secure a narrow, highly competitive victory. Manchester City boast an exceptional 17-match unbeaten home sequence at the Etihad.

BT4Y best bet

Manchester City Win

  • At 15/2, Manchester City Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Manchester City’s home machine still looks frightening
  • Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Aston Villa.
  • Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Manchester City sit 2 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Manchester City Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Aston Villa. Manchester City’s home machine still looks frightening

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City’s home machine still looks frighteningArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Manchester City Win is the preferred angle because manchester City’s home machine still looks frightening Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Aston Villa. Villa, however, possess their own attacking threat through Ollie Watkins, supported by creative runners around him.

Main risk

Villa, however, possess their own attacking threat through Ollie Watkins, supported by creative runners around him.

Key Data Signals

Manchester City Win evidence

Manchester City’s home machine still looks frightening

Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Aston Villa.

Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Manchester City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Manchester City sit 2 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Manchester City Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Manchester City9
    Avg corners for
    Aston Villa5.2
    Manchester City13.2
    Avg total corners
    Aston Villa9.8
    Manchester City1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Aston Villa1.8
    Manchester City20.6
    Avg shots
    Aston Villa12.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premier League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Manchester City2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Aston Villa2.2
    Manchester City0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Aston Villa2
    Manchester City40%
    BTTS rate
    Aston Villa80%
    Manchester City60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aston Villa80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 64% · edge +9.6 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 83%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 78% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Manchester City to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Manchester City

    DWWDW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 4D 0L
    19 May 2026A Bournemouth1-1
    13 May 2026H Crystal Palace3-0
    09 May 2026H Brentford3-0
    04 May 2026A Everton3-3
    22 Apr 2026A Burnley1-0

    Aston Villa

    WDLLW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    15 May 2026H Liverpool4-2
    10 May 2026A Burnley2-2
    03 May 2026H Tottenham1-2
    25 Apr 2026A Fulham0-1
    19 Apr 2026H Sunderland4-3
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 78% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6Manchester City wins
    1Draws
    3Aston Villa wins
    26 Oct 2025Aston Villa v Manchester City1-0
    22 Apr 2025Manchester City v Aston Villa2-1
    21 Dec 2024Aston Villa v Manchester City2-1
    03 Apr 2024Manchester City v Aston Villa4-1
    06 Dec 2023Aston Villa v Manchester City1-0
    12 Feb 2023Manchester City v Aston Villa3-1
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 78% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Manchester City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Manchester City38
    Played
    Aston Villa38
    Manchester City2
    Avg goals for
    Aston Villa1.5
    Manchester City0.9
    Avg goals against
    Aston Villa1.3
    Manchester City16
    Clean sheets
    Aston Villa9
    Market aligned with main pickManchester City to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 78% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Load more odds for this section
    Manchester City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Season data supports Manchester City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Manchester City7838239642
    4Aston Villa6538198117
    Manchester City sit in position 2, while Aston Villa sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Manchester City Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Manchester City Over 2.5
    80%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Manchester City sit at 60% and Aston Villa sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Manchester City v Aston Villa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Premier League hubPremier League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre