Football Stats Hub

Mallorca crestMallorca
v
Almeria crestAlmeria

Segunda División | Sun 27 Sep, 15:15

Mallorca v Almeria Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mallorca and Almeria meet in a tightly contested Segunda División clash where defensive solidity has been a hallmark for both sides this season. Mallorca boasts a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Almeria also maintains a disciplined backline with 0.8 goals conceded on average. Both teams have shown cautious attacking intent, reflected in their low over 2.5 goals rates of 20%. The fixture promises a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides aim to avoid costly errors and secure valuable points early in the campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Mallorca concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive form.
  • Almeria averages 0.8 goals conceded per match, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, suggesting tight matches.
  • Recent form shows Mallorca scoring 1.2 goals and Almeria 1.4 goals per game, indicating moderate attacking output.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 1.8 over the last 10 meetings, reinforcing a low-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and conservative attacking patterns. Mallorca's exceptional defensive record and Almeria's disciplined approach limit high-scoring potential. The low over 2.5 goals rates for both sides and a modest average of 1.8 goals in their recent head-to-head matches further support this outcome. The current offer positive value, aligning well with the tactical and statistical context of this fixture.

Mallorca Defensive Strength0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Almeria Defensive Solidity0.8 goals conceded per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate20% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals1.8 goals in last 10 matches
Positive
Model Probability66% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the defensive discipline both Mallorca and Almeria have demonstrated this season. Mallorca's tight defense and Almeria's cautious attacking approach suggest a match with limited clear-cut chances. The data supports a low-scoring encounter, making this bet a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive discipline

“This fixture is shaped by two teams prioritizing defensive organization over expansive attacking play, which naturally suppresses goal totals. The Under 2.5 Goals market captures this tactical reality effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Mallorca concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive form.

Almeria averages 0.8 goals conceded per match, supporting a low-scoring game.

Recent form shows Mallorca scoring 1.2 goals and Almeria 1.4 goals per game, indicating moderate attacking output.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, underscoring a trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This sample reflects a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mallorca1.2
Avg goals scored
Almeria1.4
Mallorca0.4
Avg goals conceded
Almeria0.8
Mallorca0%
BTTS rate
Almeria20%
Mallorca20%
Over 2.5 goals
Almeria20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Goal and BTTS trends indicate a low-scoring match with Mallorca having a 0% BTTS rate and Almeria 20%. Both teams' low over 2.5 goals rates of 20% reinforce the likelihood of a tight game with limited goal exchanges.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mallorca

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
19 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad II1-0
13 Sep 2026H Sabadell2-0
05 Sep 2026A Eldense0-0
30 Aug 2026H AD Ceuta FC3-0
24 Aug 2026A Granada CF0-2

Almeria

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 2L
20 Sep 2026H Celta de Vigo II2-0
12 Sep 2026A Cordoba2-0
06 Sep 2026H Cadiz3-2
29 Aug 2026A Sabadell0-1
23 Aug 2026A Tenerife0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 59% · edge +6 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Almeria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Almeria to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Mallorca to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Mallorca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Mallorca scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 0.4 per game, while Almeria scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8. Both teams' low over 2.5 goals rates of 20% reflect consistent defensive performances and restrained attacking output, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAlmeria Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 40% · edge +6.3 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Almeria to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Mallorca to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Mallorca Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Mallorca and 20% for Almeria, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mallorca Over 2.5
20%Almeria Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, underscoring a trend towards low-scoring encounters. This sample reflects a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend.

Loading deeper match data…