Football Stats Hub

Londrina crestLondrina
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Sat 03 Oct, 00:30

Londrina v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Londrina and Criciuma meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity and physicality. Londrina, positioned lower in the table, will be eager to close the gap, while Criciuma aims to maintain their strong standing. Recent matches indicate a tendency for aggressive play and tactical fouling, setting the stage for a contest likely to feature multiple cautions. The match promises a high-tempo battle with both sides pushing hard, increasing the likelihood of disciplinary actions influencing the game's flow.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Londrina averages 3 yellow cards per game, Criciuma 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.
  • Model projects a 66.1% chance for Over 4.5 Cards, with strong at 84%.
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders with high foul counts, such as Iago Teles and R.
  • Recent form shows physical matches with Londrina conceding 1.4 goals and Criciuma 1.6, reflecting open play and challenges.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a value bet with a 66.1% probability, well above the 50% implied by current . Both Londrina and Criciuma exhibit aggressive defensive styles, reflected in their average yellow cards per match and players with high foul rates. The midfield battle, featuring players like Iago Teles and R. Otero, is expected to be intense, increasing card risk. The statistical profile and tactical context combine to support a bet on a card-heavy game, with no data limitations affecting .

Model Probability65% model chance vs 50% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Average Cards per GameLondrina 3.0, Criciuma 2.4 yellows
Strong positive
Key Players' Card RiskIago Teles (Londrina) and Fabiano show high card risk
Positive
Match IntensityHigh stakes and physical play expected
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged encounter as Londrina fights to improve their league position against a solid Criciuma side. The presence of aggressive midfielders and tactical fouling patterns suggest a match prone to disciplinary actions. This bet capitalizes on the likelihood of multiple cautions shaping the game's rhythm and outcome.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's midfield battle and competitive stakes set the scene for numerous fouls and cards, making Over 4.5 Cards a compelling angle given the teams' disciplinary profiles.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Londrina averages 3 yellow cards per game, Criciuma 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.

Model projects a 66.1% chance for Over 4.5 Cards, with strong at 84%.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders with high foul counts, such as Iago Teles and R.

Recent form shows physical matches with Londrina conceding 1.4 goals and Criciuma 1.6, reflecting open play and challenges.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally is 2.1, indicating moderately open games.
  • Londrina’s 80% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches contrasts with Criciuma’s 40%, suggesting variable attacking tempo.
  • This mix points to a match where physical battles and transitions could drive fouls and cards more than goal volume.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Londrina2
Avg goals scored
Criciuma1
Londrina1.4
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma1.6
Londrina60%
BTTS rate
Criciuma0%
Londrina80%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 44% · edge +7.1 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring records but show contrasting BTTS rates, with Londrina at 60% and Criciuma at 0%. The goal trends suggest open play from Londrina but a more cautious Criciuma, which may limit goal volume but not the physicality, supporting a focus on cards rather than goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLondrina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 50% · edge +11.6 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The 65% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Londrina have the higher yellow-card average at 3, while Criciuma sit at 2.4.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Londrina

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
26 Sep 2026A Vila Nova0-2
20 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC1-2
15 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
10 Sep 2026A São Bernardo2-1
06 Sep 2026H Operario-PR1-2

Criciuma

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
27 Sep 2026H Avai3-0
22 Sep 2026H Operario-PR0-2
13 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-4
09 Sep 2026H Juventude0-2
04 Sep 2026H Cuiaba2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 79% vs implied 65% · edge +13.5 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Londrina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Criciuma to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Criciuma Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Recent matches show Londrina and Criciuma both accumulating around 6 points with moderate goals scored and conceded, reflecting competitive but open games. Londrina’s 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Criciuma’s 40%, but both teams’ physical play and fouling patterns support the likelihood of multiple cards in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Londrina Over 2.5
40%Criciuma Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals tally is 2.1, indicating moderately open games. Londrina’s 80% Over 2.5 rate in recent matches contrasts with Criciuma’s 40%, suggesting variable attacking tempo. This mix points to a match where physical battles and transitions could drive fouls and cards more than goal volume.

Loading deeper match data…