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Leyton Orient crestLeyton Orient
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

League One | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Leyton Orient v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stevenage approach this League One clash with a strong home record, unbeaten in their last six matches at the Lamex Stadium, including four wins. Their physical, direct style targets Leyton Orient's defensive vulnerabilities, especially in aerial duels and set-piece defending. Orient, struggling away with four losses in six, rely on possession and passing but often fail to translate this into clear chances. The tactical battle will see Stevenage pressing aggressively and exploiting set pieces, while Orient must balance possession with defensive caution to avoid being exposed on counters and aerial challenges. The fixture carries significant stakes as Stevenage push for playoff contention and Orient fight to climb from the relegation zone.

BT4Y best bet

Stevenage to Win

  • Stevenage unbeaten in last 6 home matches, winning 4.
  • Leyton Orient lost 4 of last 6 away games, conceding 9 goals in those defeats.
  • Stevenage average nearly 30 aerial duels won per game, dominating set-piece situations.
  • Leyton Orient show weakness defending set pieces and aerial duels, a key tactical mismatch.
  • Recent form favors Stevenage with 8 points from last 6 league matches versus Orient's 7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Stevenage's strong home form and tactical advantage in aerial duels and set pieces, which align with their unbeaten home streak. However, the current imply a 52.4% chance, higher than the model's 44.7% estimate, indicating a short price. Despite this, the football read remains compelling due to Leyton Orient's away struggles and defensive weaknesses. Reduced staking or waiting for to drift is advised to manage the negative . Improved line-ups or late data could enhance value further.

Home formUnbeaten in 6 home matches (4 wins)
Strong positive
Aerial duels controlStevenage wins ~29.6 aerial duels per match
Strong positive
Away form weaknessLeyton Orient lost 4 of last 6 away games
Positive
Price vs model chanceImplied chance 52.4% vs model 44.7%
Negative
Defensive weaknessOrient weak defending set pieces and aerial duels
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Stevenage's unbeaten home run and aerial superiority provide a tactical edge over Leyton Orient, who struggle defensively on the road. The physical battle and set-piece threat should allow Stevenage to control key moments and secure a narrow victory, supported by their recent form and defensive discipline.

Main risk

Orient should see plenty of the ball, but Stevenage will not mind that if they can force the game into duels, throw-ins, set pieces and transitions.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive matchup

“Stevenage's control in aerial duels and set-piece situations against a defensively vulnerable Leyton Orient creates a clear tactical advantage that should decide this tight League One fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Stevenage to Win evidence

Stevenage unbeaten in last 6 home matches, winning 4.

Leyton Orient lost 4 of last 6 away games, conceding 9 goals in those defeats.

Stevenage average nearly 30 aerial duels won per game, dominating set-piece situations.

Leyton Orient show weakness defending set pieces and aerial duels, a key tactical mismatch.

What To Watch In The Data

Stevenage to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the fixture has averaged 2.1 goals per game, with Stevenage's matches showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and Leyton Orient's at 60%.
  • Despite this, the tactical setup and defensive discipline suggest a tighter contest with a low-scoring outcome likely, influenced by Stevenage's set-piece threat and Orient's away inefficiency.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leyton Orient2.2
Avg goals scored
Stevenage2
Leyton Orient1.4
Avg goals conceded
Stevenage1.2
Leyton Orient60%
BTTS rate
Stevenage80%
Leyton Orient60%
Over 2.5 goals
Stevenage80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The match is expected to be low scoring with Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS No favored. Stevenage's defensive discipline and 11 clean sheets this season contrast with Leyton Orient's difficulty converting possession into goals away from home. Stevenage's aerial threat suggests a narrow 1-0 scoreline is plausible, with set pieces likely the main source of goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Stevenage Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The market prices Stevenage at 10/11 (implied 52.4%), which is shorter than the model's 44.7% chance, indicating a negative . This reflects strong public in Stevenage's home form and tactical setup, but the price is sensitive. drift or improved team news could enhance value, so caution and reduced stakes are recommended.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Leyton Orient3.8
Avg corners for
Stevenage4.6
Leyton Orient10
Avg total corners
Stevenage10.4
Leyton Orient2.6
Avg yellow cards
Stevenage1.8
Leyton Orient11
Avg shots
Stevenage10.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +7.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Stevenage averages more corners (4.6) than Leyton Orient (3.8) and commits fewer fouls (1.8 yellows vs 2.6), indicating disciplined pressure and territorial control. The physical style and set-piece focus generate sustained pressure and shot volume, while Leyton Orient's higher fouling rate may disrupt rhythm and increase dead-ball opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leyton Orient

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Wycombe2-3
05 Sep 2026A Luton1-1
01 Sep 2026A Bromley5-0
29 Aug 2026H Barnsley1-3
22 Aug 2026A Wigan2-0

Stevenage

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1
01 Sep 2026A Peterborough0-0
29 Aug 2026H Doncaster2-2
22 Aug 2026H Oxford United1-2
Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Stevenage Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Stevenage have collected 8 points in their last six league matches, maintaining momentum with four wins and two draws at home. Leyton Orient have 7 points from six matches but have lost four away games recently, highlighting their struggles on the road. This form contrast favors Stevenage's and tactical execution in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Leyton Orient wins
3Draws
4Stevenage wins
10 Mar 2026Stevenage v Leyton Orient1-2
27 Sep 2025Leyton Orient v Stevenage2-3
27 Mar 2025Leyton Orient v Stevenage1-0
21 Jan 2025Leyton Orient v Stevenage0-1
23 Nov 2024Stevenage v Leyton Orient0-0
16 Mar 2024Stevenage v Leyton Orient0-1
Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The last ten meetings between Stevenage and Leyton Orient average 2.1 goals per game, with Stevenage winning the reverse fixture 3-2. While the sample supports a competitive match, the home advantage and tactical factors favor Stevenage this time. The historical data provides context but is secondary to current form and team strengths.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League One

Leyton Orient6
Played
Stevenage6
Leyton Orient2
Avg goals for
Stevenage1.8
Leyton Orient1.5
Avg goals against
Stevenage1.2
Leyton Orient2
Clean sheets
Stevenage1
Market aligned with main pickStevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +10 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Stevenage Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Stevenage's season stats show strong defensive numbers with 1.2 goals conceded per game and a high aerial duel win rate, supporting their physical style. Leyton Orient's higher possession and pass success rates have not translated into away wins, reflecting inefficiency in attack and defensive vulnerabilities that Stevenage can exploit.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Stevenage962314
15Leyton Orient762133
Stevenage sit 9th in League One, pushing for playoff positions, while Leyton Orient are 15th, closer to relegation danger. The standings add pressure on Orient to respond, but Stevenage's home advantage and form make them favorites to secure three points in this important mid-table clash.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Leyton Orient Over 2.5
80%Stevenage Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the fixture has averaged 2.1 goals per game, with Stevenage's matches showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and Leyton Orient's at 60%. Despite this, the tactical setup and defensive discipline suggest a tighter contest with a low-scoring outcome likely, influenced by Stevenage's set-piece threat and Orient's away inefficiency.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Leyton Orient v Stevenage prediction

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