Football Stats Hub

Leyton Orient crestLeyton Orient
v
Stevenage crestStevenage

League One | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Leyton Orient v Stevenage Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 12:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Leyton Orient face Stevenage in League One on Sat 19 Sep, 15:00. Leyton Orient have scored 12 goals in six League One matches, but they have still lost half of those games, underlining how much their defensive record has undermined a productive attack.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2

  • At 2.2, Over 2 implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 61%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Leyton Orient are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Stevenage at 2.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 61% for Over 2 sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price61% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Leyton Orient.Visible data support
Positive
Leyton Orient are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Leyton Orient are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.2 goals per match, with Stevenage at 2.

BTTS rates of 60% for Leyton Orient and 80% for Stevenage show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leyton Orient2.2
Avg goals scored
Stevenage2
Leyton Orient1.4
Avg goals conceded
Stevenage1.2
Leyton Orient60%
BTTS rate
Stevenage80%
Leyton Orient60%
Over 2.5 goals
Stevenage80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 80%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Stevenage Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Leyton Orient Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Leyton Orient to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leyton Orient

LDWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Wycombe2-3
05 Sep 2026A Luton1-1
01 Sep 2026A Bromley5-0
29 Aug 2026H Barnsley1-3
22 Aug 2026A Wigan2-0

Stevenage

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
10 Sep 2026H Luton2-1
05 Sep 2026A Barnsley5-1
01 Sep 2026A Peterborough0-0
29 Aug 2026H Doncaster2-2
22 Aug 2026H Oxford United1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +11.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Stevenage to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Stevenage Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Leyton Orient Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Leyton Orient to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Leyton Orient Over 2.5
80%Stevenage Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Leyton Orient sit at 60% and Stevenage sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Loading deeper match data…