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Leganes crestLeganes
v
Castellón crestCastellón

Segunda División | Mon 28 Sep, 19:30

Leganes v Castellón Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División clash features Castellón, the current league leaders, visiting Leganes, who sit mid-table. Castellón have shown strong attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals per game while maintaining a solid defensive record with just 0.4 goals conceded per match. Leganes have struggled offensively, scoring only 1 goal per game and conceding 0.8. Castellón's recent momentum and tactical discipline suggest they will look to control the game and capitalize on their superior offensive efficiency. Leganes will need to tighten defensively and find attacking solutions to challenge the visitors.

BT4Y best bet

Castellón to Win

  • Castellón leads the league and boasts a superior recent form with 13 points versus Leganes' 10.
  • Castellón averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Leganes' 1.0.
  • Castellón concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.
  • Castellón averages 14.8 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game, showing offensive pressure.
  • Leganes' lower over 2.5 goals (20%) and BTTS (20%) rates contrast with Castellón's 60% and 40%, suggesting more open play from Castellón.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Castellón to win with a 64.7% chance, reflecting their superior attacking output and defensive solidity compared to Leganes. Castellón's higher shot volume and goal conversion rates, combined with their league-leading position and recent form, underpin this . The price offers positive value with a 20.3% edge, indicating the market underestimates Castellón's chances. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a strong data-driven choice for this fixture.

Model Win Probability64.7%
Strong positive
Goal Scoring RateCastellón 2.2 vs Leganes 1.0 goals/game
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthCastellón concedes 0.4 goals/game
Positive
Shot VolumeCastellón 14.8 shots/game
Positive
Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Castellón's superior attacking firepower and defensive resilience make them the clear favorite in this fixture. Their consistent recent form and league leadership reflect a team capable of controlling the game and securing a win against mid-table Leganes, who have struggled offensively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Castellón's tactical and statistical strengths

“Castellón's balance of attacking efficiency and defensive discipline positions them well to extend their winning run. Their ability to generate high-quality chances while restricting opponents is key in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Castellón to Win evidence

Castellón leads the league and boasts a superior recent form with 13 points versus Leganes' 10.

Castellón averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Leganes' 1.0.

Castellón concedes only 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.

Castellón averages 14.8 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game, showing offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Castellón to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is low at 1.25 per game, indicating tight contests.
  • However, Castellón's recent matches show a higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%), suggesting an upward trend in goal-scoring tempo that could influence this fixture towards more open play and goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leganes1
Avg goals scored
Castellón2.2
Leganes0.8
Avg goals conceded
Castellón0.4
Leganes20%
BTTS rate
Castellón40%
Leganes20%
Over 2.5 goals
Castellón60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Castellón's higher average goals per game (2.2) and over 2.5 goals rate (60%) indicate a tendency for more open, attacking matches, contrasting with Leganes' lower scoring and BTTS rates. This suggests a game likely to feature goals, especially from Castellón, supporting a bet on their victory with goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Castellón Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 59.4% for Castellón to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Castellón have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 10 for Leganes.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leganes

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 1L
20 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-2
13 Sep 2026A Tenerife0-2
04 Sep 2026A Las Palmas0-0
29 Aug 2026H Eldense1-0
22 Aug 2026A Oviedo1-0

Castellón

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 0L
19 Sep 2026H Tenerife5-0
12 Sep 2026A Girona2-1
06 Sep 2026H Albacete2-0
31 Aug 2026A Celta de Vigo II2-1
23 Aug 2026H Sabadell0-0
Market aligned with main pickCastellón to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Castellón Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Castellón's recent form is strong, accumulating 13 points with a solid goal difference, while Leganes have 10 points and a weaker offensive record. Castellón's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity has been consistent, giving them momentum and heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Leganes Over 2.5
60%Castellón Over 2.5
1.25H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is low at 1.25 per game, indicating tight contests. However, Castellón's recent matches show a higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%), suggesting an upward trend in goal-scoring tempo that could influence this fixture towards more open play and goals.

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