Leeds

Newcastle

Premier League | Mon 14 Sep, 20:00

Leeds v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Leeds and Newcastle meet in a Premier League clash where both teams have shown a willingness to engage offensively early in the season. Leeds have struggled to find the net consistently but maintain a solid defensive record, while Newcastle have demonstrated a more dynamic attack but have conceded more goals. Both sides have earned five points so far, setting up a competitive encounter with tactical emphasis on breaking down defenses and exploiting transitional moments. The match promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities from both teams, reflecting their current form and attacking tendencies.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

Both Leeds and Newcastle have a 67% rate of matches with both teams scoring this season.
Leeds have conceded only 0.67 goals per game, showing defensive resilience despite scoring less.
Newcastle averages 11 shots per game with a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 67%.
Head-to-head meetings average 2.8 goals, indicating a history of open, goal-rich contests.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76%, well above the implied market chance of 61.7%, indicating strong value. Both teams have shown offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities that support this outcome. Leeds' defensive solidity is offset by their lower scoring, while Newcastle's higher goal concession and attacking volume create a balanced scenario for goals at both ends. The consistent BTTS rate for both sides and historical goal averages reinforce the likelihood of goals from each team. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance76%

Strong positive

Market Implied Chance61.7%

Strong positive

Leeds BTTS Rate67%

Positive

Newcastle BTTS Rate67%

Positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals2.8 goals per game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a tendency to concede and create chances, making Both Teams to Score a logical pick. Newcastle's attacking players like Joe Willock and Joe Ramsey provide consistent threat, while Leeds' attackers, including Daniel Calvert-Lewin and L. Nmecha, have the ability to find the net. The balance of offensive and defensive traits in both teams supports an expectation of goals at both ends in this Premier League fixture.

Main risk

Their frustration at Brighton will be sharper because Jayden Bogle’s opener was cancelled out by Luka Vuskovic, but the broader sequence remains solid.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking dynamics of Newcastle combined with Leeds' defensive vulnerabilities create a fertile ground for goals from both sides. This match is poised for open play and scoring opportunities, making Both Teams to Score a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both Leeds and Newcastle have a 67% rate of matches with both teams scoring this season.

Leeds have conceded only 0.67 goals per game, showing defensive resilience despite scoring less.

Newcastle averages 11 shots per game with a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 67%.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.8 goals, indicating a history of open, goal-rich contests.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last several matches and head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, with Newcastle's recent matches showing a 67% over 2.5 goals rate.
This trend indicates a tempo favoring open play and goal opportunities, driven by Newcastle's attacking approach and Leeds' occasional defensive lapses.
The goal-scoring tempo and quality of chances suggest that Over 2.5 Goals is a realistic scenario in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Leeds1

Avg goals scored

Newcastle2

Leeds0.67

Avg goals conceded

Newcastle1.33

Leeds67%

BTTS rate

Newcastle67%

Leeds0%

Over 2.5 goals

Newcastle67%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 24%

Check odds @ 3

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Both Leeds and Newcastle have a 67% rate of matches featuring goals at both ends, supported by Newcastle's higher over 2.5 goals rate of 67%. Leeds' defensive solidity contrasts with their modest scoring, while Newcastle's more open defensive record and attacking volume create conditions conducive to goals from both sides. Historical head-to-head averages of 2.8 goals per game further underline the trend towards open, goal-rich encounters.

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more Premier League analysis related match prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 66%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

Check odds @ 3

Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

Leeds Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%

2.02

Check odds @ 2.02

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Leeds to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with a 1.62 , reflecting a 61.7% implied chance. The model's 76% probability indicates a positive of 14.3%, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring. This price offers a good balance between risk and reward, making it a favorable betting angle without requiring caution on price sensitivity.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Leeds4.33

Avg corners for

Newcastle4.33

Leeds9.67

Avg total corners

Newcastle10.33

Leeds1.33

Avg yellow cards

Newcastle3

Leeds11

Avg shots

Newcastle10.67

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 55% · edge +11.5 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 54%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

Newcastle averages 7 corners per game compared to Leeds' 3.5, indicating more attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities. Leeds maintain discipline with only 0.5 yellow cards per game, while Newcastle's higher average of 2 yellows suggests a more physical approach. Both teams generate similar shot volumes (around 11 per game), with Leeds slightly edging in shots on target, reflecting balanced offensive efforts and sustained pressure that can lead to scoring chances.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Leeds

DDW

Last 51W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 0L

05 Sep 2026A Brighton1-1

30 Aug 2026H Brentford1-1

22 Aug 2026A Nottingham Forest1-0

Newcastle

DWD

Last 51W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 0L

05 Sep 2026H Bournemouth2-2

29 Aug 2026A Tottenham2-0

23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.2 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

Check odds @ 3

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

Leeds Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%

2.02

Check odds @ 2.02

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Leeds to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Both Leeds and Newcastle have accumulated 5 points early in the season, with Leeds scoring 1 goal and conceding 0.67 per game, while Newcastle has scored 2 and conceded 1.33. Both teams have a 67% BTTS rate, reflecting recent matches where both sides found the net. This form data suggests a balanced offensive and defensive profile, supporting the likelihood of goals from both teams in the upcoming fixture.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Leeds wins

5Draws

3Newcastle wins

07 Jan 2026Newcastle v Leeds4-3

30 Aug 2025Leeds v Newcastle0-0

13 May 2023Leeds v Newcastle2-2

31 Dec 2022Newcastle v Leeds0-0

22 Jan 2022Leeds v Newcastle0-1

17 Sep 2021Newcastle v Leeds1-1

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Newcastle to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Leeds to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

The last 10 meetings between Leeds and Newcastle have averaged 2.8 goals per game, indicating a history of open and competitive matches. This sample supports the likelihood of goals from both teams, although the sample size is moderate. Current tactical setups and recent form data provide stronger signals but the historical trend aligns with an expectation of mutual scoring in this match.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Leeds3

Played

Newcastle3

Leeds1

Avg goals for

Newcastle2

Leeds0.7

Avg goals against

Newcastle1.3

Leeds1

Clean sheets

Newcastle1

Best odds for this sectionNewcastle to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 33% · edge +11.9 pts

Check odds @ 3

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Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

Leeds Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%

2.02

Check odds @ 2.02

Leeds to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Season-long stats show Leeds with a strong defensive record conceding less than one goal per game but a lower scoring rate, while Newcastle exhibits a more open style with higher goals conceded and scored. Both teams' BTTS rates at 67% indicate frequent mutual scoring. These season trends align with an expectation of goals at both ends, reinforcing the Both Teams to Score market as a logical choice.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
9	Newcastle	5	3	1	2	0	2
10	Leeds	5	3	1	2	0	1

Leeds and Newcastle sit closely in the Premier League table, ranked 10th and 9th respectively with 5 points each. While the standings reflect mid-table parity, the competitive nature of this fixture and the teams' similar form add stakes to the match. The table position suggests both sides will seek to assert themselves offensively to climb higher, supporting an open game with scoring chances for both.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Leeds Over 2.5

67%Newcastle Over 2.5

2.8H2H avg goals

Over the last several matches and head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, with Newcastle's recent matches showing a 67% over 2.5 goals rate. This trend indicates a tempo favoring open play and goal opportunities, driven by Newcastle's attacking approach and Leeds' occasional defensive lapses. The goal-scoring tempo and quality of chances suggest that Over 2.5 Goals is a realistic scenario in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Leeds v Newcastle Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Newcastle

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Football Stats Hub

Leeds v Newcastle Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Leeds

Newcastle

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