Football Stats Hub

Lech Poznan crestLech Poznan
v
Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia

Ekstraklasa | Thu 03 Sep, 19:30

Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 02 Sep 2026, 08:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lech Poznan hosts Jagiellonia in an Ekstraklasa clash where both teams have shown competitive form early in the season. Lech Poznan sits second in the table with 10 points, while Jagiellonia is close behind in sixth with 9 points. Lech Poznan boasts a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.75 goals per game, but Jagiellonia's attacking threat, led by prolific forwards, poses a significant challenge. The match promises tactical intrigue as Jagiellonia aims to secure a valuable away victory to close the gap on the leaders, while Lech Poznan looks to maintain their unbeaten home run.

BT4Y best bet

Jagiellonia to Win

  • Jagiellonia holds a 34.3% to win, with positive value at 4.1 .
  • Lech Poznan has conceded fewer goals but Jagiellonia's attackers have higher goal threat indexes.
  • Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating balanced scoring potential.
  • Lech Poznan averages more shots and corners, but Jagiellonia's clinical finishing is notable.
  • Recent form shows Jagiellonia with 9 points from recent matches, close to Lech Poznan's 10 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Jagiellonia to win due to their strong attacking players like O. Prelec, who have high goal threat and shot accuracy. Despite Lech Poznan's solid defense and home advantage, Jagiellonia's offensive efficiency and positive recent form create a compelling case. The offer good value, reflecting an underestimated chance for an away win. The data quality is solid, supporting in this selection.

Model Chance34.3%
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model24.4% vs 34.3%
Strong positive
Jagiellonia AttackHigh goal threat from O. Sow and N. Prelec
Strong positive
Lech Poznan DefenseStrong but tested by quality forwards
Neutral
Recent FormJagiellonia close in points and form to Lech Poznan
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Jagiellonia's attacking prowess, spearheaded by O. Sow, combined with their solid recent form, makes them a credible threat to Lech Poznan's defense. The away side's ability to convert chances could be decisive in this closely matched fixture, suggesting a well-founded bet on their victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking threat and tactical matchup

“Jagiellonia's forward line, especially O. Sow, presents a dynamic challenge that could exploit Lech Poznan's defense, making the away win a tactically sound and data-backed selection.”

Key Data Signals

Jagiellonia to Win evidence

Jagiellonia holds a 34.3% to win, with positive value at 4.1 .

Lech Poznan has conceded fewer goals but Jagiellonia's attackers have higher goal threat indexes.

Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating balanced scoring potential.

Lech Poznan averages more shots and corners, but Jagiellonia's clinical finishing is notable.

What To Watch In The Data

Jagiellonia to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a relatively open and attacking fixture history.
  • This trend suggests a reasonable expectation for goals over 2.5, driven by both teams' offensive tendencies and tactical approaches in previous encounters.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lech Poznan7.75
Avg corners for
Jagiellonia4.75
Lech Poznan12.75
Avg total corners
Jagiellonia9.25
Lech Poznan1.25
Avg yellow cards
Jagiellonia2
Lech Poznan18
Avg shots
Jagiellonia15.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 66% · edge +3.2 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.84
Check odds @ 1.84
Lech Poznan averages more corners (7.75) and shots (18) per game, indicating territorial control and attacking pressure. Jagiellonia's discipline is slightly looser with 1.67 yellow cards per game versus Lech Poznan's 1.25, reflecting a competitive and physical encounter. The shot volume and set-piece opportunities could influence the match flow and scoring chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Lech Poznan v Jagielloniacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lech Poznan2
Avg goals scored
Jagiellonia2
Lech Poznan0.75
Avg goals conceded
Jagiellonia1.25
Lech Poznan50%
BTTS rate
Jagiellonia50%
Lech Poznan75%
Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia50%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 83% vs implied 87% · edge -4.1 pts
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.23
Check odds @ 2.23
Both teams have a balanced BTTS rate of 50%, with Lech Poznan showing a higher over 2.5 goals rate at 75% compared to Jagiellonia's 50%. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides, driven by Lech Poznan's offensive pressure and Jagiellonia's finishing ability, supporting a potentially open game with scoring chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 24% · edge +9.9 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The for Jagiellonia to win at 4.1 offer a positive of nearly 10%, indicating the market underestimates their chances. This pricing reflects a watch-worthy opportunity as the model aligns with the team's attacking potential and recent form, suggesting the price is attractive rather than overpriced.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lech Poznan

WWWD
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Widzew Łódź3-2
09 Aug 2026H Piast Gliwice3-0
01 Aug 2026A Wieczysta Kraków2-1
25 Jul 2026H Cracovia Krakow0-0

Jagiellonia

WLWW
Last 53W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 1L
30 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa5-2
09 Aug 2026H Widzew Łódź0-2
31 Jul 2026A Motor Lublin2-1
25 Jul 2026H Korona Kielce1-0
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 24% · edge +9.9 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Recent form data shows Lech Poznan with 10 points and a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.75 goals per game. Jagiellonia is close behind with 9 points and a slightly higher goals conceded rate, but their attacking output and ability to secure points away from home highlight their competitive momentum heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Lech Poznan wins
3Draws
1Jagiellonia wins
04 Apr 2026Jagiellonia v Lech Poznan0-0
28 Sep 2025Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia2-2
16 Mar 2025Jagiellonia v Lech Poznan2-1
14 Sep 2024Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia5-0
17 Feb 2024Jagiellonia v Lech Poznan1-2
24 Oct 2023Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia3-3
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 24% · edge +9.9 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The recent 10-match head-to-head record shows an average of 3.2 goals per game, highlighting a history of open contests. While this supports the potential for an attacking game, the direct results have been mixed, offering only moderate backing for Jagiellonia's win but reinforcing the likelihood of goal-scoring opportunities.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Lech Poznan4
Played
Jagiellonia4
Lech Poznan2
Avg goals for
Jagiellonia2
Lech Poznan0.8
Avg goals against
Jagiellonia1.3
Lech Poznan2
Clean sheets
Jagiellonia1
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 34% vs implied 24% · edge +9.9 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over the season, Jagiellonia's attacking numbers, including goals and shot accuracy, support their potential to challenge Lech Poznan's defense. Lech Poznan's solid defensive stats contrast with Jagiellonia's offensive efficiency, suggesting a tactical battle where Jagiellonia's scoring ability could be decisive.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Lech Poznan1043105
6Jagiellonia943013
Lech Poznan sits second in the Ekstraklasa with 10 points, while Jagiellonia is sixth with 9 points. The close proximity in the standings adds competitive pressure, with Jagiellonia motivated to close the gap on the leaders. This context underscores the importance of the match for both sides' ambitions this season.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Lech Poznan Over 2.5
50%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.2, indicating a relatively open and attacking fixture history. This trend suggests a reasonable expectation for goals over 2.5, driven by both teams' offensive tendencies and tactical approaches in previous encounters.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Raków Częstochowa v Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa · Thu 03 Sep 17:00Jagiellonia v Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa · Wed 16 Dec 17:00

Competition and hubs

full betting preview for Lech Poznan v Jagielloniacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre