Lecce

AS Roma

Serie A | Mon 31 Aug, 17:30

Lecce v AS Roma Stats

Data last updated: Sun 30 Aug 2026, 07:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecce and AS Roma meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have started the season with three points each, setting up a competitive fixture. Lecce's defensive discipline contrasts with Roma's more aggressive style, which often leads to increased fouling and card accumulation. Roma's attacking intent and Lecce's physical approach suggest a match with heightened intensity and potential disciplinary actions. The tactical battle will likely see both sides contesting aggressively in midfield and defense, increasing the likelihood of multiple cards being shown.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

Both teams average around 2-3 yellow cards per match, indicating a physical style of play.
Roma's aggressive pressing and Lecce's defensive resilience often lead to fouls and bookings.
Recent matches show Roma's games frequently exceed 3.5 cards, reflecting their combative approach.
Lecce's home matches tend to be tightly contested with disciplinary incidents due to defensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 70.5% chance for over 3.5 cards, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 45.5%, indicating strong value at 2.2 . Both teams show average yellow card counts near or above three per game, with Roma's aggressive style and Lecce's defensive challenges contributing to frequent fouls. Player-level data highlights individuals like Hermoso and Koné with elevated card risks, supporting the expectation of multiple bookings. This pick is a solid value play given the match's competitive nature and disciplinary trends.

Model Chance70.5%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance45.5%

Strong positive

Average Yellow Cards per MatchLecce 3, Roma 2

Positive

Key Players with Card RiskHermoso, Koné, Ngom

Positive

Match Intensity and Tactical SetupHigh fouling likelihood

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with Lecce's defensive grit and Roma's pressing style driving up fouls and bookings. The combination of tactical aggression and key players prone to fouls supports the over 3.5 cards selection as a strong tactical and statistical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's aggressive midfield battles and defensive duels create a fertile ground for multiple bookings, making over 3.5 cards a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average around 2-3 yellow cards per match, indicating a physical style of play.

Roma's aggressive pressing and Lecce's defensive resilience often lead to fouls and bookings.

Recent matches show Roma's games frequently exceed 3.5 cards, reflecting their combative approach.

Lecce's home matches tend to be tightly contested with disciplinary incidents due to defensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Roma's matches frequently featuring high-tempo play and aggressive challenges.
The trend towards open, contested games with physical duels supports the expectation of multiple cards, reinforcing the over 3.5 cards market as a reflection of the fixture's tempo and style.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lecce3

Avg corners for

AS Roma2

Lecce8

Avg total corners

AS Roma5

Lecce3

Avg yellow cards

AS Roma2

Lecce12

Avg shots

AS Roma17

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%

1.73

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Both teams generate moderate shot volumes, with Lecce averaging 12 shots and Roma 17 per game, alongside 3 and 2 corners respectively. The physical nature of play and fouling frequency, especially from Roma's defenders and midfielders, contribute to a higher card count, supported by sustained pressure and tactical fouling in wide and central areas.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysis corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lecce2

Avg goals scored

AS Roma4

Lecce0

Avg goals conceded

AS Roma0

Lecce0%

BTTS rate

AS Roma0%

Lecce0%

Over 2.5 goals

AS Roma100%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts

1.67

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

Check odds @ 2

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

While goals and BTTS rates differ between the teams, with Roma showing a 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Lecce none, the focus here is on disciplinary trends. The attacking intent from Roma and Lecce's defensive resilience suggest a contested game where fouls and cards are more influential than goal-scoring patterns.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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AS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%

2.02

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Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%

7.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

Check odds @ 2

DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Lecce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

The over 3.5 cards market is priced attractively at 2.2 with a of 70.5%, indicating clear value. The market underestimates the likelihood of multiple bookings given the teams' disciplinary records and tactical styles. This price offers a strong edge without requiring movement to justify the bet.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lecce

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

23 Aug 2026A Venezia2-0

AS Roma

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

24 Aug 2026H Fiorentina4-0

Best odds for this sectionAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

2.02

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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%

2.62

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Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 81%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Lecce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

Recent form data shows Lecce and Roma both have three points from their opening matches, with Roma's games featuring a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals and Lecce maintaining clean sheets but with no over 2.5 goals. The disciplinary records indicate consistent card accumulation, especially from Roma, supporting the over 3.5 cards market as a reflection of current match tempo and intensity.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lecce wins

2Draws

8AS Roma wins

22 Mar 2026AS Roma v Lecce1-0

06 Jan 2026Lecce v AS Roma0-2

29 Mar 2025Lecce v AS Roma0-1

07 Dec 2024AS Roma v Lecce4-1

01 Apr 2024Lecce v AS Roma0-0

05 Nov 2023AS Roma v Lecce2-1

Best odds for this sectionLecce to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +14.6 pts

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

Check odds @ 2

DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%

4.1

Check odds @ 4.1

AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, with competitive and physical contests typical between these teams. While goal trends are moderate, the intensity and tactical battles in previous meetings suggest a propensity for fouls and bookings, lending moderate support to the over 3.5 cards selection.

Season team stats

Serie A

Lecce1

Played

AS Roma1

Lecce2

Avg goals for

AS Roma4

Lecce0

Avg goals against

AS Roma0

Lecce1

Clean sheets

AS Roma1

Best odds for this sectionAS Roma Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

2.02

Check odds @ 2.02

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Lecce to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%

7.5

Check odds @ 7.5

AS Roma to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%

1.48

Check odds @ 1.48

Lecce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.78

Check odds @ 1.78

Season-long stats reveal Lecce averages 3 yellow cards per match while Roma averages 2, with Roma's aggressive pressing style contributing to frequent fouls and bookings. These figures align with the model's high chance of over 3.5 cards, reflecting the teams' tactical approaches and defensive challenges throughout the campaign.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
4	AS Roma	3	1	1	0	0	4
7	Lecce	3	1	1	0	0	2

Both teams sit in the top 10 early in the Serie A season, with Roma fourth and Lecce seventh, indicating competitive form. While league position alone is not decisive, the stakes for both sides to secure points add intensity to the match, likely increasing fouling and card incidents as each side presses for advantage.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lecce Over 2.5

100%AS Roma Over 2.5

2.5H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.5, with Roma's matches frequently featuring high-tempo play and aggressive challenges. The trend towards open, contested games with physical duels supports the expectation of multiple cards, reinforcing the over 3.5 cards market as a reflection of the fixture's tempo and style.

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Betting context

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Football Stats Hub

Lecce v AS Roma Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Lecce

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Lecce v AS Roma Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Lecce

AS Roma

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