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Kyrgyzstan crestKyrgyzstan
v
Lebanon crestLebanon

Friendlies | Sun 04 Oct, 15:00

Kyrgyzstan v Lebanon Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lebanon enters this friendly against Kyrgyzstan with strong recent attacking form, having scored six goals in their last three matches without conceding. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, has struggled offensively, netting just 1.4 goals per game and conceding slightly more. Lebanon's defensive solidity and attacking sharpness set the stage for a confident away performance, while Kyrgyzstan's lower scoring and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a challenging fixture at home. Both teams will use this match to test tactics and players ahead of more competitive fixtures, adding an element of unpredictability to the contest.

BT4Y best bet

Lebanon to Win

  • Lebanon has scored 6 goals in last 3 matches, conceding none
  • Kyrgyzstan averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game recently
  • Lebanon's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 100%, Kyrgyzstan's is 40%
  • Lebanon's BTTS rate is 0%, Kyrgyzstan's is 20%

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Lebanon to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their recent attacking efficiency and defensive resilience. Lebanon's perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate and clean sheets in recent games highlight their control, while Kyrgyzstan's lower scoring and higher goals conceded suggest defensive frailty. The of 3.6 offer significant value given the model's , making Lebanon a compelling pick. Player data supports this, with Lebanese attackers like Karim Darwich and Daniel Lajud showing high shot volumes and accuracy, enhancing Lebanon's goal threat.

Model Chance32.4% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+4.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model32.4% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+4.6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredLebanon 6, Kyrgyzstan 1.4 per game
Strong positive
Defensive RecordLebanon 0 goals conceded recently
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lebanon's recent form and attacking potency make them the likely winners in this friendly. Their ability to keep clean sheets combined with a high volume of shots on target from key players like Karim Darwich provides a tactical and statistical edge over Kyrgyzstan, who have struggled to score consistently.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lebanon's clinical finishing and defensive discipline set them apart in this matchup, making their win a logical outcome despite the friendly status of the game.”

Key Data Signals

Lebanon to Win evidence

Lebanon has scored 6 goals in last 3 matches, conceding none

Kyrgyzstan averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game recently

Lebanon's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 100%, Kyrgyzstan's is 40%

Lebanon's BTTS rate is 0%, Kyrgyzstan's is 20%

What To Watch In The Data

Lebanon to Win notes

  • Over the last three matches, Lebanon has consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open and attacking style.
  • Kyrgyzstan's lower over 2.5 rate suggests more conservative or less effective offense.
  • This trend indicates a likely high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, primarily driven by Lebanon's offensive capabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kyrgyzstan1.4
Avg goals scored
Lebanon6
Kyrgyzstan1.2
Avg goals conceded
Lebanon0
Kyrgyzstan20%
BTTS rate
Lebanon0%
Kyrgyzstan40%
Over 2.5 goals
Lebanon100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 71% · edge +15 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Lebanon's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking style and ability to score multiple goals while maintaining clean sheets. Kyrgyzstan's lower over 2.5 rate and BTTS rate indicate less consistent goal-scoring and a tendency to concede. This contrast suggests a game where Lebanon's offense could dominate, but BTTS is less likely given Lebanon's defensive record.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLebanon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +4.6 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Lebanon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 35%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 32.4% for Lebanon to Win sits against roughly 27.8% implied by the current price (+4.6 pts). Kyrgyzstan have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 3 for Lebanon.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kyrgyzstan

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
28 Sep 2026H Maldives5-0
09 Jun 2026H Palestine0-0
06 Jun 2026H Palestine0-0
28 Mar 2026H Madagascar2-5
25 Mar 2026H Equatorial Guinea0-1

Lebanon

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
01 Oct 2026A Maldives6-0
Market aligned with main pickLebanon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 32% vs implied 28% · edge +4.6 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Lebanon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Lebanon's recent form is impressive, scoring six goals across three matches without conceding, showcasing both offensive efficiency and defensive strength. Kyrgyzstan's form is less convincing, with fewer goals scored and a higher goals-against rate. This form disparity underpins Lebanon's favored status and suggests they will control the match tempo and chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Kyrgyzstan Over 2.5
100%Lebanon Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last three matches, Lebanon has consistently produced games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting an open and attacking style. Kyrgyzstan's lower over 2.5 rate suggests more conservative or less effective offense. This trend indicates a likely high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, primarily driven by Lebanon's offensive capabilities.

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