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KV Mechelen crestKV Mechelen
v
St. Truiden crestSt. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 11 Oct, 18:15

KV Mechelen v St. Truiden Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Jupiler Pro League clash features struggling KV Mechelen hosting mid-table St. KV Mechelen have managed only 3 points and 0.4 goals per game, showing offensive struggles and defensive frailty with 1.8 goals conceded per match. Truiden arrive with better momentum, earning 8 points and scoring 1.6 goals per game while conceding 1.6. Truiden's more balanced form and higher attacking output suggest they can exploit Mechelen's defensive issues in this contest.

BT4Y best bet

St. Truiden to Win

  • Truiden have a 67.9% to win, with offering positive value at 2.05.
  • KV Mechelen have scored just 0.4 goals per game, struggling offensively this season.
  • Truiden average 15.2 shots and 3.8 shots on target per match, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates (20%), suggesting tight defensive moments but St. Truiden's form favors a win.
  • KV Mechelen rank 18th with 3 points, while St. Truiden sit 12th with 8 points, reflecting current form disparity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors St. Truiden to win with a 67.9% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output compared to KV Mechelen. Truiden's higher average shots and goals per game indicate better offensive efficiency, while Mechelen's defensive vulnerabilities increase their risk of conceding. The at 2.05 offer positive value given the implied chance of 48.8%, making this a strong tactical and statistical pick. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Win Probability67.9%
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
KV Mechelen Goals For0.4 per game
Negative
St. Truiden Goals For1.6 per game
Strong positive
Shots on Target per Game (St. Truiden)3.8
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Truiden's superior attacking form and recent point accumulation give them a tactical edge over KV Mechelen, who are struggling to score and defend effectively. The data supports backing St. Truiden to secure the win in this fixture, reflecting both momentum and quality differences.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Truiden's consistent offensive pressure and better recent results position them well to exploit KV Mechelen's defensive weaknesses in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

St. Truiden to Win evidence

Truiden have a 67.9% to win, with offering positive value at 2.05.

KV Mechelen have scored just 0.4 goals per game, struggling offensively this season.

Truiden average 15.2 shots and 3.8 shots on target per match, indicating attacking pressure.

Both teams have low BTTS rates (20%), suggesting tight defensive moments but St. Truiden's form favors a win.

What To Watch In The Data

St. Truiden to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Truiden's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests they can push for goals, while KV Mechelen's 40% rate indicates less frequent high-scoring games.
  • The trend supports potential for multiple goals, mainly from St.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

KV Mechelen0.4
Avg goals scored
St. Truiden1.6
KV Mechelen1.8
Avg goals conceded
St. Truiden1.6
KV Mechelen20%
BTTS rate
St. Truiden20%
KV Mechelen40%
Over 2.5 goals
St. Truiden60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting tight defensive moments. Truiden's higher goals per game (1.6) and KV Mechelen's defensive frailty imply that goals are likely to come from St. Truiden, supporting a win rather than a high-scoring BTTS scenario.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSt. Truiden to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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St. Truiden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Truiden to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Truiden have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for KV Mechelen.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

KV Mechelen

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 4L
19 Sep 2026A Lommel United0-0
11 Sep 2026H Anderlecht0-1
05 Sep 2026H KVC Westerlo0-4
29 Aug 2026A RAAL La Louvière2-2
22 Aug 2026A Charleroi0-2

St. Truiden

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
20 Sep 2026H KVC Westerlo0-2
12 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-2
05 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière4-0
02 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise0-3
30 Aug 2026A Antwerp4-1
Market aligned with main pickSt. Truiden to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
St. Truiden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Recent form heavily favors St. Truiden, who have collected 8 points compared to KV Mechelen's 3. Truiden's ability to score 1.6 goals per game contrasts with Mechelen's 0.4, highlighting offensive struggles for the home side and momentum for the visitors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%KV Mechelen Over 2.5
60%St. Truiden Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Truiden's 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season suggests they can push for goals, while KV Mechelen's 40% rate indicates less frequent high-scoring games. The trend supports potential for multiple goals, mainly from St.

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