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Kocaelispor crestKocaelispor
v
Samsunspor crestSamsunspor

Süper Lig | Sun 06 Sep, 18:00

Kocaelispor v Samsunspor Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kocaelispor and Samsunspor face off in a Süper Lig clash where both teams have shown moderate scoring and defensive records early in the season. Kocaelispor sits 6th with six points, while Samsunspor is 10th with four points. Both sides have averaged around 1.3 to 1.7 goals scored and conceded per game, reflecting balanced but cautious play. The tactical setup suggests a measured approach, with neither team pushing aggressively for high-scoring outcomes at this stage, making a low-scoring match plausible under current conditions.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Kocaelispor and Samsunspor both average just over 1 goal scored per game this season.
  • Both teams have a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 33%, indicating fewer high-scoring matches.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 1.25 goals, supporting a low-scoring trend.
  • Kocaelispor averages 11.33 shots per game with 4.67 on target, Samsunspor 11 shots with 2 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.
  • Discipline is moderate with Kocaelispor averaging 1.67 yellow cards and Samsunspor 0.67, suggesting controlled play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting both teams' conservative scoring patterns and defensive solidity. Both Kocaelispor and Samsunspor have a low frequency of matches exceeding 2.5 goals (33%), and their head-to-head average goals stand at 1.25, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game. Shot data shows moderate attacking attempts but limited finishing precision, supporting restrained goal totals. The at 1.62 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection based on current form and statistical trends.

Model Chance66%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Both Teams33%
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals1.25
Positive
Shots and Shots on TargetModerate attacking volume
Positive
Price Value Edge4.3% positive
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a solid pick given the cautious tactical approaches and balanced defensive records of both teams. The limited goal output in recent matches and head-to-head encounters suggests a tight contest with few clear-cut chances. This selection aligns well with the early-season form and statistical evidence pointing to a controlled, low-scoring game.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical rationale for Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides that prioritize defensive organization over open attacking play, making a low-scoring outcome the most logical scenario. The statistical trends and recent performances underline the likelihood of a tight match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Kocaelispor and Samsunspor both average just over 1 goal scored per game this season.

Both teams have a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 33%, indicating fewer high-scoring matches.

Head-to-head meetings average 1.25 goals, supporting a low-scoring trend.

Kocaelispor averages 11.33 shots per game with 4.67 on target, Samsunspor 11 shots with 2 on target, showing moderate attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.25, indicating a trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend observed in their meetings.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kocaelispor1.33
Avg goals scored
Samsunspor1.67
Kocaelispor1
Avg goals conceded
Samsunspor1.67
Kocaelispor33%
BTTS rate
Samsunspor33%
Kocaelispor33%
Over 2.5 goals
Samsunspor33%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams have scored and conceded at similar modest rates, with Kocaelispor averaging 1.33 goals for and 1 against, and Samsunspor 1.67 for and against. Their BTTS rates are low at 33%, suggesting matches often end with one or both teams failing to score, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals angle.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kocaelispor

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Konyaspor2-1
24 Aug 2026H Amed2-0
16 Aug 2026A Başakşehir0-2

Samsunspor

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
30 Aug 2026H Fenerbahçe0-2
22 Aug 2026A Rizespor2-0
17 Aug 2026H Göztepe3-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 71% · edge +8 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Kocaelispor to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Kocaelispor Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Samsunspor to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Samsunspor Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows both teams have scored and conceded around 1.3 to 1.7 goals per game, with a low Over 2.5 Goals occurrence of 33%. This consistency in moderate scoring and defensive solidity supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection as both sides appear to prioritize balance over high-risk attacking.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Kocaelispor632011
10Samsunspor431110
Kocaelispor's 6th place and Samsunspor's 10th place positions reflect competitive but not dominant campaigns. The standings suggest both teams are motivated to secure points but may adopt pragmatic tactics to avoid defeat, which often results in lower-scoring games in this league context.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionKocaelispor to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 41% · edge +11.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Kocaelispor Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Samsunspor to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Samsunspor Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.62, reflecting a modest value opportunity with a 4.3% positive edge over the implied chance. This price aligns well with the model's 66% probability, indicating the market reasonably prices the likelihood of a low-scoring game without overstating it.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kocaelispor3
Avg corners for
Samsunspor2
Kocaelispor8.33
Avg total corners
Samsunspor10
Kocaelispor1.67
Avg yellow cards
Samsunspor0.67
Kocaelispor11.33
Avg shots
Samsunspor11
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Kocaelispor averages 3 corners and 1.67 yellow cards per game, while Samsunspor averages 2 corners and 0.67 yellows. Shot volumes are moderate, with Kocaelispor registering 11.33 shots and 4.67 on target, Samsunspor 11 shots and 2 on target. This indicates controlled attacking pressure with disciplined defensive play, limiting goal-scoring chances.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Kocaelispor wins
1Draws
2Samsunspor wins
24 Jan 2026Samsunspor v Kocaelispor0-0
16 Aug 2025Kocaelispor v Samsunspor0-1
21 Jan 2022Samsunspor v Kocaelispor3-0
28 Aug 2021Kocaelispor v Samsunspor1-0
Best odds for this sectionKocaelispor to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 41% · edge +11.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Samsunspor to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Samsunspor over four matches shows an average of 1.25 goals per game, highlighting a pattern of low-scoring contests. This historical data supports expectations of a tightly contested match with limited scoring chances.
Season team stats

Süper Lig

Kocaelispor3
Played
Samsunspor3
Kocaelispor1.3
Avg goals for
Samsunspor1.7
Kocaelispor1
Avg goals against
Samsunspor1.7
Kocaelispor1
Clean sheets
Samsunspor1
Best odds for this sectionKocaelispor to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 41% · edge +11.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Kocaelispor Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Samsunspor to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Samsunspor Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long statistics reveal Kocaelispor and Samsunspor maintain similar scoring and defensive profiles, with neither side frequently involved in high-scoring matches. Their goal averages and BTTS rates underline a tendency towards matches with fewer goals, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Kocaelispor Over 2.5
33%Samsunspor Over 2.5
1.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.25, indicating a trend towards low-scoring encounters. This recent sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals trend observed in their meetings.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Kocaelispor v Samsunspor prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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