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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
v
Dundee crestDundee

Premiership | Tue 12 May, 19:45

Kilmarnock v Dundee Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 18:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kilmarnock face Dundee in Premiership on Tue 12 May, 19:45. Kilmarnock have won back-to-back league matches while scoring six goals and conceding none. Kilmarnock have finally found scoring form with six goals in two games, yet their season average of 1.83 conceded highlights defensive gaps.

BT4Y best bet

Dom, and Dundee suddenly look looser and more expressive going forward

  • At 29/10, Kilmarnock Win implies roughly 26%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 46%.
  • However, their broader defensive record remains a concern; conceding 1.83 goals per match across the campaign highlights a persistent vulnerability.
  • Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Kilmarnock sit 4 in the table, while Dundee sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 46% for Kilmarnock Win sits against roughly 26% implied by the current price. Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge. However, their broader defensive record remains a concern; conceding 1.83 goals per match across the campaign highlights a persistent vulnerability.

Model chance vs price46% model chance against roughly 26% implied
Strong positive
Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Kilmarnock sit 4 in the table, while Dundee sit 2.Visible data support
Positive
However, their broader defensive record remains a concern; conceding.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Kilmarnock Win is the preferred angle because however, their broader defensive record remains a concern; conceding that scoring level per match across the campaign highlights a persistent vulnerability. Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge. That creates entertaining football for neutrals but probably causes McCann a few sleepless nights.

Main risk

That creates entertaining football for neutrals but probably causes McCann a few sleepless nights.

Key Data Signals

Kilmarnock Win evidence

However, their broader defensive record remains a concern; conceding 1.

Kilmarnock have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Kilmarnock Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Kilmarnock sit 4 in the table, while Dundee sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Kilmarnock Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Kilmarnock1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Dundee1.4
    Kilmarnock1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Dundee1.4
    Kilmarnock20%
    BTTS rate
    Dundee40%
    Kilmarnock80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Dundee80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 56% · edge +18.7 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 56%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Kilmarnock38
    Played
    Dundee38
    Kilmarnock1.3
    Avg goals for
    Dundee1.1
    Kilmarnock1.8
    Avg goals against
    Dundee1.6
    Kilmarnock9
    Clean sheets
    Dundee7
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 54% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
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    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Season data supports Kilmarnock to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Kilmarnock

    WWLDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    09 May 2026A ST Mirren3-0
    02 May 2026H Dundee Utd3-0
    25 Apr 2026A Aberdeen0-1
    11 Apr 2026H Dundee2-2
    04 Apr 2026A Hibernian0-3

    Dundee

    WWLDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    09 May 2026H Livingston3-0
    02 May 2026H ST Mirren1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Dundee Utd0-3
    11 Apr 2026A Kilmarnock2-2
    05 Apr 2026H Celtic1-2
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 54% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 54% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 74%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Kilmarnock to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Kilmarnock5.2
    Avg corners for
    Dundee3.8
    Kilmarnock9.2
    Avg total corners
    Dundee8
    Kilmarnock2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Dundee0.8
    Kilmarnock11.2
    Avg shots
    Dundee10.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 57% · edge +1.7 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Kilmarnock wins
    5Draws
    3Dundee wins
    11 Apr 2026Kilmarnock v Dundee2-2
    17 Jan 2026Kilmarnock v Dundee1-2
    30 Dec 2025Dundee v Kilmarnock2-1
    23 Aug 2025Kilmarnock v Dundee0-0
    10 May 2025Kilmarnock v Dundee3-2
    30 Nov 2024Kilmarnock v Dundee1-1
    Market aligned with main pickKilmarnock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 54% · edge -8.6 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 74%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Kilmarnock to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Dundee33338916-19
    11Kilmarnock283361017-28
    2Dundee423811918-19
    4Kilmarnock4038101018-18
    Kilmarnock sit in position 4, while Dundee sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Kilmarnock Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
    80%Dundee Over 2.5
    3.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Kilmarnock sit at 80% and Dundee sit at 80% with the H2H average at 3.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.