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Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
v
Ayr Utd crestAyr Utd

League Cup | Fri 14 Aug, 19:45

Kilmarnock v Ayr Utd Stats

Data last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026, 06:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Cup clash features Ayr Utd visiting Kilmarnock in a fixture where Ayr Utd arrive with strong recent momentum, having secured 12 points with a potent attack averaging 2.5 goals per game. Kilmarnock, by contrast, have struggled offensively, scoring just 0.5 goals per match and failing to find the net in recent outings. Ayr Utd's tactical setup emphasizes quick transitions and efficient finishing, which could exploit Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities. The match carries significant stakes as both teams seek to progress, with Ayr Utd's and goal threat making them a clear contender despite the away setting.

BT4Y best bet

Ayr Utd to Win

  • Ayr Utd have a 69.1% to win, showing strong value at 5.0 .
  • Ayr Utd average 2.5 goals per game, significantly outscoring Kilmarnock's 0.5.
  • Kilmarnock have not scored in recent matches, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Ayr Utd's recent form includes a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play.
  • Kilmarnock's BTTS rate is 0%, while Ayr Utd's is 50%, highlighting contrasting attacking profiles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Ayr Utd to win due to their superior recent form and attacking output, averaging five times more goals per game than Kilmarnock. Ayr Utd's ability to create and convert chances is supported by higher shot and shot-on-target averages, indicating sustained offensive pressure. Kilmarnock's lack of goals and shots suggests difficulty breaking down defenses, reinforcing the away side's advantage. The reflect significant value given the model's 69.1% win probability compared to the implied 20% chance, making Ayr Utd a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this assessment.

Model Win Probability69.1%
Strong positive
Ayr Utd Goals Per Game2.5
Strong positive
Kilmarnock Goals Per Game0.5
Negative
Shots Per Game Ayr Utd12
Strong positive
Shots Per Game Kilmarnock7.5
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ayr Utd's recent attacking form and ability to create chances make them the tactical favorite in this League Cup tie. Their higher goal output and shot volume suggest they can break down Kilmarnock's defense, which has struggled to score. This combination of form and offensive threat underpins the in an Ayr Utd victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and attacking form

“Ayr Utd's dynamic attack and consistent goal-scoring record give them a clear edge over Kilmarnock, who have yet to find their rhythm offensively this season. Expect Ayr Utd to control the tempo and capitalize on defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Ayr Utd to Win evidence

Ayr Utd have a 69.1% to win, showing strong value at 5.0 .

Ayr Utd average 2.5 goals per game, significantly outscoring Kilmarnock's 0.5.

Kilmarnock have not scored in recent matches, indicating offensive struggles.

Ayr Utd's recent form includes a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Ayr Utd to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Ayr Utd's recent matches show a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tendency for higher-scoring games.
  • This trend supports the expectation of an open game with multiple goal opportunities, particularly favoring Ayr Utd's attacking style.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kilmarnock5.5
Avg corners for
Ayr Utd5
Kilmarnock7.5
Avg total corners
Ayr Utd10
Kilmarnock1
Avg yellow cards
Ayr Utd0
Kilmarnock7.5
Avg shots
Ayr Utd12

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kilmarnock0.5
Avg goals scored
Ayr Utd2.5
Kilmarnock0
Avg goals conceded
Ayr Utd0.75
Kilmarnock0%
BTTS rate
Ayr Utd50%
Kilmarnock0%
Over 2.5 goals
Ayr Utd50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 53% · edge +13.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Goal trends favor Ayr Utd, who average 2.5 goals per game with a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating matches often feature multiple goals. Kilmarnock's 0% BTTS and low scoring suggest a more defensive or ineffective attack. This contrast suggests a game where Ayr Utd's offense could dominate, while Kilmarnock may struggle to respond, making goals and BTTS routes favorable for the visitors.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAyr Utd to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Ayr Utd Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The Ayr Utd to Win market offers strong value as the imply only a 20% chance, while the model estimates a 69.1% probability. This large discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity, reflecting Ayr Utd's superior form and goal threat. The current price is attractive for bettors seeking value in an away win with solid football reasoning behind it.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kilmarnock

DWWD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
25 Jul 2026A Peterhead0-0
21 Jul 2026H Hamilton Academical1-0
18 Jul 2026A Elgin City1-0
14 Jul 2026H Raith Rovers0-0

Ayr Utd

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
25 Jul 2026H Alloa Athletic4-1
18 Jul 2026H Edinburgh City2-0
14 Jul 2026A Falkirk1-0
11 Jul 2026A Stranraer3-2
Market aligned with main pickAyr Utd to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Ayr Utd Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Ayr Utd's recent form is impressive, accumulating 12 points with a strong goal-scoring record, contrasting sharply with Kilmarnock's 8 points and minimal goals scored. This momentum suggests Ayr Utd enter the fixture with and attacking rhythm, increasing their likelihood of securing a win in this cup tie.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Kilmarnock wins
0Draws
3Ayr Utd wins
04 Jul 2025Kilmarnock v Ayr Utd1-0
11 Jul 2024Ayr Utd v Kilmarnock3-2
11 Mar 2022Ayr Utd v Kilmarnock1-3
09 Feb 2022Kilmarnock v Ayr Utd1-2
26 Oct 2021Ayr Utd v Kilmarnock0-1
02 Aug 2021Kilmarnock v Ayr Utd2-0
Market aligned with main pickAyr Utd to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The seven previous meetings between these teams have produced an average of 2.43 goals per game, reflecting moderately competitive encounters. While the sample size is limited, this suggests a balanced historical rivalry without overwhelming control, meaning current form and tactical factors are more decisive for this match's outcome.
Season team stats

League Cup

Kilmarnock4
Played
Ayr Utd4
Kilmarnock0.8
Avg goals for
Ayr Utd2.5
Kilmarnock0.3
Avg goals against
Ayr Utd0.8
Kilmarnock3
Clean sheets
Ayr Utd2
Market aligned with main pickAyr Utd to WinBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Ayr Utd Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Season statistics reinforce Ayr Utd's attacking superiority, with a 2.5 goals per game average and a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, compared to Kilmarnock's 0.5 goals and no Over 2.5 matches. Defensively, Ayr Utd concede fewer goals on average, indicating a balanced team capable of both scoring and defending effectively, supporting their chances to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Kilmarnock Over 2.5
50%Ayr Utd Over 2.5
2.43H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.43, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Ayr Utd's recent matches show a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a tendency for higher-scoring games. This trend supports the expectation of an open game with multiple goal opportunities, particularly favoring Ayr Utd's attacking style.

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