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Kasımpaşa crestKasımpaşa
v
Amed crestAmed

Süper Lig | Sun 06 Sep, 15:00

Kasımpaşa v Amed Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Kasımpaşa hosts Amed in a Süper Lig clash where both teams have shown contrasting offensive patterns this season. Kasımpaşa has struggled to score, netting just one goal in recent matches while maintaining a solid defense with fewer goals conceded. Amed, positioned slightly higher in the standings, averages more goals but has a mixed defensive record. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from Kasımpaşa aiming to control the game defensively, while Amed's attacking efforts may be limited by Kasımpaşa's compact shape. This balance sets the stage for a low-scoring encounter with tight margins.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Kasımpaşa has not recorded any Over 2.5 Goals matches this season, indicating a low-scoring trend at home.
  • Amed's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 67%, but their BTTS rate is only 33%, suggesting inconsistent goal exchanges.
  • Kasımpaşa averages just 1 goal for and 0.67 against per recent matches, reinforcing defensive solidity.
  • Both teams show moderate shot volumes but limited shots on target, pointing to fewer clear chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting Kasımpaşa's strong defensive record and low scoring output combined with Amed's inconsistent attacking threat. Despite Amed's higher Over 2.5 rate, Kasımpaşa's home form and defensive discipline suggest limited goal opportunities. The at 1.7 offer positive value with a 7.2% edge, making this a sensible selection based on recent form and season-long defensive trends. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Kasımpaşa Defensive Solidity0.67 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Amed Inconsistent BTTS33% BTTS rate
Positive
Model Probability66% chance Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Market Price1.7 odds with 7.2% value edge
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Kasımpaşa's defensive focus and limited scoring, combined with Amed's mixed attacking consistency. The match is likely to be a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances, favoring a low-scoring outcome supported by recent form and season stats.

Main risk

That combination deserves some caution.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture's defensive discipline and cautious tactics from Kasımpaşa, paired with Amed's sporadic attacking threat, make Under 2.5 Goals a compelling choice. The data points to a tight game where goals will be at a premium.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Kasımpaşa averages just 1 goal for and 0.67 against per recent matches, reinforcing defensive solidity.

Both teams show moderate shot volumes but limited shots on target, pointing to fewer clear chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last several matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed: Kasımpaşa has none, while Amed has a 67% rate.
  • This contrast indicates that while Amed can be involved in higher-scoring games, the overall tempo and defensive setups in this fixture may suppress goal totals, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Kasımpaşa2
Avg corners for
Amed4.33
Kasımpaşa9.33
Avg total corners
Amed8.33
Kasımpaşa2
Avg yellow cards
Amed2.67
Kasımpaşa9
Avg shots
Amed14
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Kasımpaşa averages fewer corners and shots compared to Amed, indicating less attacking pressure. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, reflecting disciplined play. The limited shot on target numbers suggest fewer quality chances, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring match.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Kasımpaşa1
Avg goals scored
Amed1.67
Kasımpaşa0.67
Avg goals conceded
Amed1
Kasımpaşa67%
BTTS rate
Amed33%
Kasımpaşa0%
Over 2.5 goals
Amed67%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Goal trends show Kasımpaşa rarely participates in high-scoring matches, with zero Over 2.5 games recently, while Amed's higher Over 2.5 rate is tempered by a low BTTS percentage. This suggests that while Amed can score, matches often lack reciprocal scoring, supporting a low total goals scenario.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Amed to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Amed Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Kasımpaşa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.7, reflecting a reasonable balance between the model's 66% probability and the implied 58.8% chance. This pricing offers positive value, indicating the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game based on defensive trends and recent form.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Kasımpaşa

DWD
Last 51W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 0L
30 Aug 2026A Başakşehir1-1
22 Aug 2026A Çorum FK1-0
15 Aug 2026H Trabzonspor1-1

Amed

WLW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
31 Aug 2026H Trabzonspor2-1
24 Aug 2026A Kocaelispor0-2
16 Aug 2026H Erzurumspor FK3-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.5 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Amed to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Amed Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Kasımpaşa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form data highlights Kasımpaşa's strong defensive record with only 0.67 goals conceded per game and no Over 2.5 matches, underscoring a low-scoring pattern. Amed's form shows more goals scored but also defensive vulnerabilities, creating a scenario where cautious play and defensive organization could dominate.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Kasımpaşa wins
0Draws
0Amed wins
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Amed to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Kasımpaşa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
No previous head-to-head data exists between Kasımpaşa and Amed, so historical meetings offer no guidance. The focus should remain on current form, tactical setups, and season statistics to assess the likely outcome.
Season team stats

Süper Lig

Kasımpaşa3
Played
Amed3
Kasımpaşa1
Avg goals for
Amed1.7
Kasımpaşa0.7
Avg goals against
Amed1
Kasımpaşa1
Clean sheets
Amed1
Best odds for this sectionAmed to WinBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 35% · edge +14.1 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Amed Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Kasımpaşa Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Kasımpaşa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Season-long statistics reinforce Kasımpaşa's defensive resilience and low scoring output, with an average of 1 goal scored and fewer goals conceded. Amed's higher goal average is offset by inconsistent defensive performances, suggesting matches may not consistently produce high goal totals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Amed632012
8Kasımpaşa531201
The standings show Amed slightly ahead of Kasımpaşa, but both teams are mid-table with similar points. The league position suggests moderate pressure but not desperation, likely leading to controlled tactics rather than open, high-scoring play.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Kasımpaşa Over 2.5
67%Amed Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last several matches, the Over 2.5 Goals trend is mixed: Kasımpaşa has none, while Amed has a 67% rate. This contrast indicates that while Amed can be involved in higher-scoring games, the overall tempo and defensive setups in this fixture may suppress goal totals, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Kasımpaşa v Amed prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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