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Juventude crestJuventude
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Sun 11 Oct, 20:00

Juventude v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

São Bernardo host Juventude in a pivotal Serie B clash where the league leaders face a stern defensive test. São Bernardo arrive unbeaten in their last nine league matches, boasting a solid home record with multiple draws, including several 1-1 scorelines. Juventude, sitting eighth, bring an elite defensive record, having conceded just eight goals in 13 matches, and a recent 3-0 win that boosts their . Both teams exhibit tactical discipline and defensive resilience, setting the stage for a tightly contested match likely decided by narrow margins and midfield control.

BT4Y best bet

Draw

  • São Bernardo unbeaten in last nine Serie B matches, with four draws in last six home games.
  • Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 13 league matches, showcasing strong defensive organization.
  • Three of São Bernardo's last four home draws ended 1-1, indicating a pattern of tight scorelines.
  • Juventude average 13.03 shots per match with 63% inside the box, highlighting their attacking threat despite low away goal average.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The draw selection aligns with both teams' recent form and defensive solidity. São Bernardo's home matches frequently end in draws, reflecting their difficulty in breaking down disciplined defenses. Juventude's elite defensive record and ability to generate quality shots inside the box suggest a balanced contest with limited scoring. Although the price is slightly short compared to the , the tactical context supports a cautious approach with reduced stakes. The data quality is robust, allowing in this defensive stalemate scenario.

Recent Form ConsistencySão Bernardo unbeaten in last 9, multiple draws at home
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthJuventude conceded only 8 goals in 13 matches
Strong positive
Shot Volume and QualityJuventude average 13.03 shots with 63% inside box
Positive
Price Sensitivity28.4% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+0.6 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The draw is a logical outcome given São Bernardo's home tendency to draw and Juventude's strong defensive setup. The match is expected to be a tactical midfield battle with limited clear-cut chances, making a stalemate the most probable result based on form and defensive data.

Main risk

This is first against eighth, but it does not scream procession.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“This fixture is a classic defensive duel where both teams' tactical discipline and recent form point towards a balanced draw rather than a decisive victory.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

São Bernardo unbeaten in last nine Serie B matches, with four draws in last six home games.

Juventude have conceded only eight goals in 13 league matches, showcasing strong defensive organization.

Three of São Bernardo's last four home draws ended 1-1, indicating a pattern of tight scorelines.

Juventude average 13.03 shots per match with 63% inside the box, highlighting their attacking threat despite low away goal average.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal-scoring frequency.
  • The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 1, suggesting historically low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend supports expectations of a tactical, low-tempo game with limited goal opportunities, consistent with the draw prediction.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Juventude1.4
Avg goals scored
São Bernardo1.4
Juventude0.8
Avg goals conceded
São Bernardo0.6
Juventude20%
BTTS rate
São Bernardo40%
Juventude40%
Over 2.5 goals
São Bernardo40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +8.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams demonstrate strong defensive profiles, with Juventude conceding only eight goals and São Bernardo averaging 0.6 goals against recently. The low BTTS rate for Juventude (20%) and moderate for São Bernardo (40%) combined with under 3.5 goals trends support a low-scoring match. The attacking threat is limited by tactical discipline, making BTTS No and under 3.5 goals plausible outcomes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Juventude

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
07 Oct 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
03 Oct 2026H Operario-PR3-0
28 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-0
19 Sep 2026A Sport Recife1-2
13 Sep 2026H Athletic Club0-2

São Bernardo

LWDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
06 Oct 2026A Sport Recife1-2
02 Oct 2026H CRB3-1
25 Sep 2026A Novorizontino0-0
19 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-0
14 Sep 2026A America Mineiro2-0
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 28% · edge +0.6 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
São Bernardo to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
São Bernardo's unbeaten streak of nine matches, including four draws at home, highlights their consistency and resilience. Juventude's recent form includes three wins, one draw, and two defeats, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but less stable away performance. This form suggests a tight contest with neither side dominating.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 28% vs implied 28% · edge +0.6 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
São Bernardo to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Juventude to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The 28.4% for Draw sits against roughly 27.8% implied by the current price (+0.6 pts). São Bernardo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for Juventude. Sao Bernardo average 0.71 goals conceded at home, aligning perfectly with three recent 1-1 scores in front of home supporters.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Juventude Over 2.5
40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal-scoring frequency. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 1, suggesting historically low-scoring encounters. This trend supports expectations of a tactical, low-tempo game with limited goal opportunities, consistent with the draw prediction.

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